A quick update on the October ISM report.
On Monday we also received a dreadful new report from the Institute of Supply Management’s survey of manufacturers. A value below 50 indicates that more companies are reporting deterioration than are reporting improvement in categories such as new orders, production, and employment. The index fell to 38.9 in October, a value that’s basically not seen unless the economy is in a recession, and indeed is slightly worse than the low point of the two previous recessions.
I take that as another early indicator that 2008:Q4 will be worse than Q3.