The employment situation report has been well analyzed by a variety of researchers , including Jim. Given the noise introduced by weather and new seasonal factors, I thought it would be of interest to see what the experimental series, based on the household survey, indicates.
Figure 1 depicts the establishment based nonfarm payroll employment series, the NFP series ex.-temporary Census workers, and the household survey based research series.
Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll employment series (blue), the NFP series ex.-temporary Census workers (red), and the civilian employment series adjusted to conform to the NFP concept. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, and BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.
As has been discussed on various occasions,    the household series is more volatile. However, if one is concerned primarily with identifying trends, it still might be useful to refer to it. Interestingly, the growth rates (3 mo., annualized) possess similar trends.
Figure 2: Three month annualized growth rates of nonfarm payroll employment series (blue) and the civilian employment series adjusted to conform to the NFP concept (green). Growth rates calculated as log differences. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, and BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.
Note that this (research) household-survey based series is revised over time, unlike the civilian employment series. Weather could have (and is likely to have) also impacted the household-survey based series, so the purpose of these graphs is not to argue one series is better than the other. Rather, we want to additional series might contain additional information.