As highlighted in Figure 1, estimates of GDP regarding 2011Q1 growth differ widely.
Figure 1: BEA estimates of GDP (blue bars), e-forecasting estimates of 25 April (red line), Macroeconomic Advisers estimates of 14 April (green line), and implied forecast for March (green triangle), all in bn.Ch.2005$ SAAR. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, 2011Q1 GDP 3rd release, e-forecasting.com, Macroeconomic Advisers, and NBER.
The implied q/q annualized growth rate from Macroeconomic Advisers’ latest report is 1.4%, from e-forecasting is 4.3%. It’s of interest to compare against survey averages. The WSJ’s April survey mean growth rate is 2.7%.
Figure 2: BEA estimates of GDP (blue bars), and WSJ April 2011 mean forecast (red bar), all in bn.Ch.2005$ SAAR. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, 2011Q1 GDP 3rd release, and WSJ, and NBER.
The survey was collected April 1-6, so predates the arrival of a lot the negative data that impelled the shaving off of percentage points by Macroeconomic Advisers.
Figure Current-Quarter GDP Forecasts
Consensus Panel Mean and Std. Deviation, from Macroeconomic Advisers, Weekly Commentary (week of 4/25/2011).
We’ll have the first read on Thursday.