Quick links to a few items I found interesting.
Bill McBride observes:
Right now 2014 is on pace to be the best year for both total and private job growth since 1999.
Others comment on my new paper, The Changing Face of World Oil Markets:
Steven Kopits: Hamilton has it right on oil.
Sooner or later, we will have some combination of benefits cuts and/or revenue increases…. But why, exactly, is that something that must be done immediately?
And here’s the abstract from a new paper by Jens Hilscher, Alon Raviv, and Ricardo Reis:
We propose and implement a method that provides quantitative estimates of the extent to which higher- than-expected inflation can lower the real value of outstanding government debt. Looking forward, we derive a formula for the debt burden that relies on detailed information about debt maturity and claimholders, and that uses option prices to construct risk-adjusted probability distributions for inflation at different horizons. The estimates suggest that it is unlikely that inflation will lower the US fiscal burden significantly, and that the effect of higher inflation is modest for plausible counterfactuals. If instead inflation is combined with financial repression that ex post extends the maturity of the debt, then the reduction in value can be significant.