With Philadelphia Fed leading indices out, I still don’t know if it constitutes a “disaster”, but it’s not particularly good.
Monthly Archives: May 2016
The Trade Slowdown, China, and the Rest of the World
“China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown”
Trends in oil supply and demand
Here I review key trends in the oil market over the last decade.
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Costing the Forcible Removal of Undocumented Immigrants and Barring Entrance of Muslim Individuals from the Homeland
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made two specific proposals purportedly aimed at safeguarding the Homeland. Presumably, these will be incorporated into the Republican party platform. How would those proposals be implemented and how much would implementation cost?
Guest Contribution: “Fiscal Education for the G-7”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column appearing at Project Syndicate.
Kansas and Her Neighbors: Economic Activity
I don’t know if it counts as a “disaster”, but Kansas continues to lag its neighbors in economic activity, and to under-perform what is to be expected from historical correlations.
Dueling nowcasts
The second quarter of 2016 is now more than half over, but we won’t receive the first reading on 2016:Q2 GDP from the BEA until the end of July. A forecast of something that is happening right now is sometimes described as a “nowcast”. The Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Atlanta are providing a valuable service by publishing continuously updated nowcasts of GDP. But what should we do if they’re giving us rather different numbers?
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Kansas: Zero 12 Month Employment Growth
Or, “ouch!”
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Wisconsin Employment: Falling Further Behind
Wisconsin’s Department of Workforce Development released employment figures today. Nonfarm payroll employment down 12,000, private NFP down 11,000, month-on-month.
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More on Uncertainty in Open Economy Macro
In my last post, I noted a conference on uncertainty in macroeconomics. Here are two papers of particular interest to me.