That’s the title of a paper with David Greenlaw, Managing Director of Morgan Stanley, Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Kenneth West, professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin, which we presented at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum annual conference in New York on Friday.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column that appeared at Project Syndicate on February 22nd.
In a previous post, and as flagged by reader rtd, I wrote too quickly and did not show the full set of changes to the US Citizenship and Immigration Services mission statement. Apologies for the omission. The wording of the new mission statement — on top of deleting “a nation of immigrants” — are in my mind actually much worse, and I thank rtd for alerting me. Below is a fuller accounting of changes, annotated.
Anonymous reader rtd took issue with my characterization of the modification of the US Citizenship and Immigration Services in this post, characterizing it as “…disingenuous at best and to me seems to be grossly negligent…”. He takes up my invitation to write his comprehensive response, for which I thank him/her.
[edited to quote current Mission Statement verbatim, per rtd‘s comment; new text in red, original text below in blue]
America under Mr. Trump is transmuted. US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) modifies its mission statement from:
“USCIS secures America’s promise as a nation of immigrants by providing accurate and useful information to our customers, granting immigration and citizenship benefits, promoting an awareness and understanding of citizenship, and ensuring the integrity of our immigration system.” [emphasis added – mdc]
“U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services administers the nation’s lawful immigration system, safeguarding its integrity and promise by efficiently and fairly adjudicating requests for immigration benefits while protecting Americans, securing the homeland, and honoring our values.”
[changed text 2/24 12PM Pacific – thanks to rtd for pointing out that “as a nation of immigrants” is not the only thing modified] Original text reads:
“USCIS secures America’s promise
as a nation of immigrants by providing accurate and useful information to our customers, granting immigration and citizenship benefits, promoting an awareness and understanding of citizenship, and ensuring the integrity of our immigration system.”
The head of USCIS stated that this change was not at the direction of the White House.
Following up on the other candidate variables in this post.
Figure 1: Mass shooting deaths (black), wounded (gray), both 12 month trailing moving average. February observation for data through 2/23. Source: Mother Jones and author’s calculations.
Jason Furman points us out to his favorite Table 8-2 in the Economic Report of the President, 2018, released yesterday, with particular reference to the productivity assumption.
Figure 1: Nonfarm real output per hour, 1947Q1=1 (blue), Trump Administration forecast of 2.6% (red), historical average (1953Q2-2017Q3) growth rate of 2% (pink). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, CEA and author’s calculations.
In my previous post, I recounted “The New Fama Puzzle” as it applied to dollar exchange rates, with focus on the euro/dollar rate. A quick observation: the reversal also appears for non-US dollar based exchange rates (against euro, yen, pound).
Not good. From GS Sunday.
And nary a peep from purported conservative deficit hawks and/or Tea Party folk.