Acres Burned to Date

Not a record year, yet.


Source: WaPo.


Figure 1: Acres burned (blue) and acres burned year-to-date 6 August (red), and log linear regression fit (black). Data before 1983 is collected using a different methodology, and hence is not strictly comparable to 1983-2018 data. Source: NIFC1, NIFC2.

The regression equation used to estimate the trend is:

log(ACRES) = 10.91 + 0.0433×TIME

bold denotes significance at 1% msl using HAC robust standard errors. Adj.-R2 = 0.46. DW = 2.09.

The coefficient on time can be interpreted as indicating that the number of acres burned is trending up at 4.3% per year, although a 95% confidence interval would encompass a figure as low as 2.9% and as high as 5.7%.

The correlation between suppression costs and acres burned is high (see this post). 2017 suppression costs by the Federal government (i.e., not including state costs) was $2.9 billion.

134 thoughts on “Acres Burned to Date

    1. pgl

      These fires are not due to Hispanics living in California. But of course PeakRacist has to suggest otherwise. BTW – the good folks in Bensonhurst have already figured you out so maybe you need to find another place to spread your hate.

      Reply
        1. pgl

          “Oh man it’s kind of sick how much joy I get out of being cruel to old white men,” Jeong wrote in July 2014 in one of several old messages that have gone viral.

          Did Sarah Jeong turn PeakPathetic down for a date? Smart on her part. BTW – the building of those homes up in the hills has nothing to do with who has moved to South Central LA or the Mission District of San Francisco. Of course PeakRacist would not know that as he is too afraid to venture into a community with colored people.

          Reply
        2. pgl

          “We hired Sarah Jeong because of the exceptional work she has done … her journalism and the fact that she is a young Asian woman have made her a subject of frequent online harassment. For a period of time she responded to that harassment by imitating the rhetoric of her harassers,” The Times said in a statement. “She regrets it, and The Times does not condone it.”

          I bet if we checked with WikiLeaks and their Russian hacking colleagues, we could figure out who harassed her online. Oh wait – that would be PeakRacist who was doing the harassment. Gee Peaky – you have been caught again!

          Reply
          1. Steven Kopits

            I think, pgl, that if Jeong wrote about black people what she wrote about whites, you would call for her firing. And rightly so.

            I personally think racism — black, white, Hispanic, Asian or Arab — should have no place at the New York Times.

          2. pgl

            “I think, pgl, that if Jeong wrote about black people what she wrote about whites, you would call for her firing. ”

            I abhor racism of all sorts. But c’mon “Princeton” Steve – we see racist garbage nonstop from PeakPathetic. Now when you decide to call this racist garbage out, you can join the conversation. Until then – I really could care less.

          3. PeakTrader

            Pgl, all you talk about is race. Facts aren’t important to you.

            And, not all “colored” people are poor.

            You’re falsely categorizing people only by race.

            You sound like you have little experience around minorities.

          4. Steven Kopits

            Let’s be clear. Peak’s behavior does not justify your behavior. If you want me to say that CA wildfires have nothing to do with Hispanics, sure. And for the avoidance of doubt: No one is more committed than I am to reducing the enormous predation and victimization of migrants, with the Menzie Counter today at 150,000 since May 14, including nearly 500 deaths, 28,000 rapes, 7,000 kidnappings and 23,000 unnecessary incarcerations. That’s a lot of bad stuff happening for a topic we’re not allowed to discuss, while we’re on the topic of racism.

            My more fundamental issue is with the NYT, as it was with the HSPH. When an ostensibly ‘neutral’ organization is seen visibly taking sides, your society is in trouble. It is one thing when it happens in the trenches, another entirely when our leading institutions think it’s OK to jump into the fray. DId you not see LaCosta hammer Sarah Huckabee last week? Did you not get the ‘press is the enemy of the people’ bit? So now I ask you: Is the New York Times the enemy of white people? I think this hire decision will be seen widely across the country as fundamentally racist and anti-white — as editorial and business policy at the New York Times. I think that takes our society away from extremism and directly towards it. You may think fighting it out fascist against communist is an entertaining pastime and a worthwhile endeavor. Let me assure you, there is only suffering and destruction down that path.

          5. Anonymous

            “Peak’s behavior does not justify your behavior.”

            Hey Princeton Steve – let me be clear. My behavior is not the problem here. Your silence as PeakPathetic abuses this comment section nonstop for his racist garbage is.

            No more paying attention to a word you have to say as you are beyond clueless.

          6. baffling

            “You think she ought to be fired?”
            steven, did you see some of the tweets sarah was responding to with that rhetoric? was it immature and wrong? yes. but these were not tweets that she initiated, they were responses to abhorrent language and threats. on the other hand, the president was unprovoked in his claim to grab women by the pu$$^. you want to fire him for saying that (and much more)?

          7. Steven Kopits

            Baffs –

            If you’re asking me to justify the President’s more egregious behavior, you’re looking in the wrong place.

          8. baffling

            “If you’re asking me to justify the President’s more egregious behavior, you’re looking in the wrong place.”
            steven, i am asking you if he should be fired (resign). or do we hold a young girl who was harassed online to higher ethical and moral standards than the president of the united states?

        3. noneconomist

          Both Shasta and Trinity counties are almost 90% “white only” according to Census data. Trump won both handily, almost 65% of the vote in Shasta. Mendocino and Lake counties (Mendocino Complex) are also close to 90% “white only”. Who lives there(or where) had/has little to do with with these fires.

          Reply
          1. noneconomist

            Worth noting: the Carr Fire, which devastated parts of Shasta and Trinity counties, did so because of the combination of high temps and high winds. (The north valley–i.e., the northern Sacramento Valley– is extremely hot in the summer).
            Trumpers should understand that a lack of water has not hampered fire fighters. There are two large reservoirs–Lake Shasta and Trinity Lake- close by that currently hold about 5,000,000 acre feet of water. The Sacramento River, as it exits Shasta, is currently flowing quite nicely south.
            Firefighters on the Mendocino Complex fires benefit from their proximity to Clear Lake, the largest natural freshwater lake located entirely in California.
            Of course, those are near moot points. That’s because much of the big work is done with fire retardant and setting back fires where possible.
            However, if Trump gets his way, water will no longer be “diverted” into the Pacific Ocean and will be allowed to run uphill as God intended.

          2. pgl

            Someone gets California! I bet Peaky gets this too but he has to hurl racist garbage 24/7. Of course Princeton Steve hasn’t a clue. No clue at all!

    2. pgl

      “Even as fires rage across California, thousands of new homes are being built deeper into our flammable foothills and forests, as lethal as they are lovely.”

      Did PeakRacist even read the first sentence? Does he have a clue that these homes belong to some very rich white people. Hispanics are the problem? Lord – PeakRacist is even dumber than Trump!

      Reply
    3. 2slugbaits

      California wildfires: It’s a people problem

      This is an exceptionally stupid statement even by your standards. First, California isn’t the only state experiencing fires. And the US isn’t the only country. There are out-of-control fires in northern Sweden and even in that densely populated metropolis known as Siberia. And did you understand the coefficient in the semi-log regression? If you did, then are you trying to tell us that population has been growing at 4.3% per year??? And did you forget to account for the fact that with each large fire there’s less fuel available for next year’s fire? Kind of a sampling without replacement problem. Maybe, just maybe the ever increasing fire damage is due to record high temperatures (highest ever recorded temperature in Europe at 118 degrees) and chronic drought conditions. But you just go ahead an blame it on Hispanic immigrants despite the fact that immigration has been falling. What a doofus. BTW, howz the weather in St. Petersburg, or weren’t you programmed to answer that question?

      Reply
      1. PeakTrader

        2slugbaits, a 1% increase in population, for example, can increase acres burned 4.3%.

        More Californians are moving into the ex-burbs or rural areas.

        There’s a positive correlation between population and wildfires.

        And, I know, you want to blame it on man made global warming, but that’s likely an insignificant factor, particularly compared to natural global warming.

        Reply
        1. noneconomist

          Rural counties in NE California are losing or barely maintaining population. The wealthier ex-urbs are indeed gaining population.
          One concern: there’s a significant amount of land controlled by the federal government, mainly national forests. It is necessary IMO to do much more thinning and controlled burning (in the cooler months) in these areas that will alleviate uncontrolled burning in the hotter months. We’ve experienced a very orange sun and lots of smoke for about two weeks.
          Of course, that will require more funding and, correct me if I’m wrong, the current administration has pushed for significant cuts in Forestry and Interior funding. And Gov. Brown has nothing to do with funding that must come from Congress with approval by the President.

          Reply
        2. pgl

          I guess you are ALL excited that Princeton Steve has come to the defense of your incredibly stupid racism. Well – it does seem there is at least one person who lives in Princeton, PA that is dumber than you!

          Reply
        3. baffling

          “And, I know, you want to blame it on man made global warming, but that’s likely an insignificant factor, particularly compared to natural global warming.”
          and now we are acknowledging that global warming is indeed occurring. oh the horror of the hiatus a few years back-there is no global warming occuring. what a hypocrite you are peak.

          Reply
          1. Anonymous

            Baffled, 2 arrows in your quiver? You use the same non-argument denying the actual data, even after shown the graphs. Now that is REAL DENIAL of math and science over blind belief.

          2. CoRev

            Steven, I know, but iot was more than appropriate for Baffled, since he uses the very same argument over and over re: AGW.

          3. baffling

            what side of the bed did you wake up on today, coloser? is it a hiatus day or a rising temperature day? guess it depends on what argument you want to make today. idiot.

      2. dilbert dogbert

        We happen to live in the urban wild lands interface at our two homes. I also know that there is a vast amount of California that has evolved to burn. So Cal more than the rest of the state. There is a lot of California that should burn on a regular basis.
        It is easy to understand why folks are moving into the wild lands interface. Sell your house in the Bay Area and buy a house 3 times larger and 3 times more land for 1/3 the price you got for your home in Palo Alto. We did.
        We have had instances where a dry lighting storm caused up to 1000 fires. The Carr fire was reportedly started by a vehicle problem near the Carr power house at Whiskeytown. Sad cause we spent most every Memorial Day weekend for 30 some years racing the sailboat in the Whiskeytown regatta.

        Reply
      3. Steven Kopits

        CoRev –

        So, the argumentation, in terms of sophistication:

        1. ad hominem attacks
        2. appeal to authority
        3. argue the merits of the case

        Pgl is limited on 3, so tends to revert to 1. That’s the point I was making.

        Reply
        1. Anonymous

          “Pgl is limited on 3, so tends to revert to 1. That’s the point I was making.”

          Seriously? Get a clue Princeton Steve – most of the stuff you write here or on your blog is of no interest to me or any other sensible person. But hey join in with the alt-right in going after some young Korean reporter. I’ll ignore you the way I ignore Breitbart.

          Reply
        2. CoRev

          Steven you forgot the 4th, just outright lies. I’ve caught him so many times it is like shooting fish in the veritable barrel.

          So, let’s revise the list:
          1. ad hominem attacks
          2. appeal to authority
          3. argue the merits of the case
          4. lies to our faces.

          Reply
          1. pgl

            Oh Lord – the trolls attack. I do not lie and you know it. But do babble on for the Kremlin as we know your rent is due.

    4. baffling

      comrade peakloser is race baiting, just as the kremlin tasked him to do. he brings up race, and then blames others for the continued comments. what a loser.

      Reply
      1. PeakTrader

        Baffling, you make up more nonsense about me than Pgl.

        You have no credibility.

        I’m sure, you’ll keep trying to fool people.

        Reply
        1. baffling

          “I’m sure, you’ll keep trying to fool people.”
          i have been fairly accurate describing you peakloser. talking of fooling, have you even admitted that you have been part of the population duped by the russians online? you want to deny they have influenced your thinking?

          Reply
  1. Bruce Hall

    Many fires are started by an inadequate electrical grid expanded into forested areas because people have built homes there. The hot summer months increase the load on the electrical grid causing transformers to fail and burn or explode. Some fires, of course, are started by accident and others by arsonists. But going back two centuries… it’s still people: https://www.nps.gov/fire/wildland-fire/learning-center/fireside-chats/history-timeline.cfm

    While the current California fires are large, they are much smaller than the historical great fires.

    Reply
  2. Anonymous

    Kopits: “I think, pgl, that if Jeong wrote about black people what she wrote about whites, you would call for her firing. And rightly so. I personally think racism — black, white, Hispanic, Asian or Arab — should have no place at the New York Times.”

    Sheesh, Kopits. An Asian person making a joke about the white racists who imposed a century of racist exclusionary laws on Asians is the racist?

    And here is how Fox News responded to the story:
    “I don’t know if this lady is Chinese, Japanese or crazy-nese,” Williams said. “Something is wrong with this woman and I can’t believe they would hire her … There is something wrong with them fortune cookies that Ling Ling’s eating.”

    And you say Jeong is the racist? Fox News, the most trusted news source for white Republicans, just proved her point.

    By the way, Jeong was born in South Korea, but I realize, all those Asians look alike to you poor oppressed white guys.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Sarah Jeong is being attacked by Faux News and Breitbart – go figure. Aja Romano has a saner take:

      https://www.vox.com/2018/8/3/17644704/sarah-jeong-new-york-times-tweets-backlash-racism

      “In standing by its decision to hire the well-known tech journalist, the Times shut down a major bullying tactic of the alt-right.”

      Read the entire post as it does a nice job of presenting the facts. Yes PeakRacist loves to bully Asian women. And it does seem Princeton Steve has chosen to join this alt-right garbage.

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        “Princeton” Kopits has always been very transparent on his political leanings. There’s a Youtube video of “Princeton”Kopits where the poor man’s version of Glen Beck has him on as a guest. The video, when I viewed it some months ago, had about 50 hits after it had been uploaded for many months, and “Princeton” Kopits acted so indebted to the host for the invite you would have thought it was a personal invitation to the Vatican.

        I have very little doubt that if “Princeton”Kopits is ever invited on Tusker Carlton’s show on FOX, he’s going to urinate himself.

        Addendum from white male goofball Uncle Moses Am I a Sarah Jeong fan?? NO. Do I believe she deserves to be on NYT editorial board?? NO. But this reminds me of the college women’s movement that would require a written contract signed by both parties before a guy could boink a woman on or near a Uni campus. Or the deal where some women need a “safe space” on a University campus because apparently as adult women they can’t handle interacting with males. It only debases women, by giving the strong impression that they can’t seem to view themselves as independent adults The white men all flustered and worked up over Jeong’s hiring are only proving ONE thing, How childishly sensitive they are to things that really aren’t that damned important. That’s why they call it an editorial BOARD kids. Life will go on, I promise.

        Reply
        1. Steven Kopits

          Read ’em:

          https://twitter.com/GarbageHuman_/status/1024894655253495808/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1024894655253495808&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2F2018%2F8%2F3%2F17644704%2Fsarah-jeong-new-york-times-tweets-backlash-racism

          https://twitter.com/GarbageHuman_/status/1024894655253495808

          You’re OK with this Menzie? So you’d be OK with the NYT hiring a white guy who wrote: “Oh man, it’s sick how much joy I get out of being cruel to chinks.” You would be fine with that? I wouldn’t.

          Reply
          1. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Steven Kopits: If at the time, the person was in a position of power, I would not be ok with it. God knows I’ve been tempted to say irresponsible things in response to posts on this blog, but as I say, I have the advantage of 30 odd years on her (note how old she was when she wrote these things). On the other hand, Donald Trump called for the execution of five (black) individuals after they were exonerated by DNA evidence, when Mr. Trump was a millionaire in NYC. I haven’t heard you critique that event with the same energy and verve that you are condemning Ms. Jeong. How about a little proportionality?

          2. Moses Herzog

            @ Princeton”Kopits
            And yet, which of the two examples has gotten you very worked up and flustered, in a blog post unrelated to your complaint??

            Even in Seattle (which I would wager is a more broadminded area than many other USA cities) I don’t even want to imagine what Menzie had to withstand in his grade school days related to his ethnicity. I didn’t think you could do much worse than lecturing a man who is an international finance professor about the concept of arbitrage. But today you managed it.

          3. Steven Kopits

            Would you be comfortable with the NYT hiring a person who wrote that about Chinese, Menzie? Simple question.

          4. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Steven Kopits: Given the context (surrounding messages, age, etc.), yes. Answered your question. What about Mr. Trump’s demand for the execution of Central Park Five after they were exonerated by DNA, and someone else had confessed. You might say that he did this when he was young; in 1990, he was 44. When he last re-iterated his claim the Central Park Five were guilty, and the vacating of their judgments were wrong, he was a callow 70… (in 2016). Yet, you are exercised about Ms. Jeong (who was writing at age 26). I’d say you have your priorities wrong.

            I’d also say (and here I am critical of behavior) people say all sorts of things on twitter and facebook that are unacceptable. Some people have the excuse of arrested development (old fogey speaking here). Some do not.

          5. Steven Kopits

            So you’re OK with the NYT hiring a white guy who wrote: “Oh man, it’s sick how much joy I get out of being cruel to chinks.”

            Well, you’re way more tolerant than I am. I would call that person an unvarnished racist with no place on the country’s paper of record.

          6. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Steven Kopits: I daresay I probably am more tolerant. You haven’t answered my query regarding Central Park Five, and Mr. Trumps statements thereof.

        2. Steven Kopits

          I’ve been on lots of TV shows, Moses. The Ledger interview, that’s not what we were supposed to be discussing. But it’s the host’s prerogative to ask whatever he likes, and I was grateful for the opportunity to air my views.

          The alt-right, like Menzie, doesn’t know quite what to make of me. I can talk in conservative terms, but not in conservative orthodoxy. So all the conservative guys see collapsing marijuana imports and rising hard drugs (the essential driver of the violence we see in Chicago, btw) because they are on my mailing list and occasionally use my statistics or narrative. So is that good news or bad news? Well, the numbers are what they are. They are not partisan as such. And the policy prescriptions assume conservative objectives (keeping in mind that three ideology model), but are not necessarily anywhere near established conservative wisdom. For example, in the linked article, I take on Rep. Gosar’s notion that a wall will stop drug smuggling, but leave as an option the demand suppression which Peak has championed. Thus, the hardline conservative view is presented not as a wall — which won’t work for the reasons I lay out — but as aggressive demand suppression, which could. As a result, the alt-right is a bit wary of me, because I am very good at digging up numbers and creating a vision and narrative around them — but it’s not necessarily what they may think a priori.

          https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2018/8/2/no-wall-can-stop-opioid-smuggling

          Similarly, Menzie struggles with the notion of solving a social problem using a market — the horror! This, even though black markets are covered in the first month of a basic micro class and the history of Prohibition and Repeal is absolutely clear. And we have a contemporary example in the legalization and taxation of marijuana, whic is doing to illegal smuggling across the border exactly what the analogue will do illegal migrant crossings. That’s today! Marijuana smuggling will be down 40% this year — that’s really incredible. And yet, a market-based solution to illegal immigration is simply not worthy of discussing. If 28 white women were raped crossing from Canada into the US, Menzie would be all over it. But 28,000 Hispanic women crossing from Mexico into the US? Please, they do not warrant human consideration.

          The alt-right is not the only set who doesn’t quite know how to think about my work.

          Reply
          1. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Steven Kopits: Actually, I think I’ve run into plenty of your type. I usually just smile and move on. Partly, it’s cultural inheritance. Partly, I know when there is somebody who has made up their mind.

            To your other points.

            1. Let’s be clear. I’ve never made a comment on your immigration proposal. I’ve actually not read it, despite somehow ending up on your email list.
            2. I don’t think it is fair for you to make an assessment of what I “would be all over”. I have the sense you’re accusing me of being racist, weighting more heavily whites than hispanics, but I can’t tell because of the general incoherence of your remarks.
            3. Markets work to some extent. They don’t always work to reach an optimum, because markets require intervention to make them fair and efficient. Yes, in the confines of a developed market economy, with rule of law (so far), taxes on tobacco partly internalize externalities, as in the US. Regulations to ban smoking indoors are a good thing, which even if not market based, are worth it. Take it from somebody whose father died from lung cancer, with some positive likelihood because he worked for decades in a bar where second-hand smoke was viewed as a part of the business. You can say, he should’a picked a job where he wasn’t at risk. That’s the easy answer from somebody who’s had a choice.

      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        Steven Kopits: And I’m American of Chinese extraction. And I’m saying that while her comments were unfunny, and ill-advised, I don’t think she’s “racist”, as I think she showed a lot restraint given context. If were called a “dog eating gook”, I might react negatively as well. But then I have the advantage of age to restrain me. Certainly, online comments are different than POTUS making statements about low-IQ fellow Americans when he wields power over the state apparatus.

        You know what is racist? Mr. Trump calling for execution of the Central Park Five after DNA evidence had exonerated them. Please join me in tackling the true racism that exists in plain sight in our Nation.

        Reply
          1. Moses Herzog

            I semi disagree with Menzie’s statement here. Although it’s kind of “splitting hairs”.

            But to me the term girlfriend implies you have genuine feeling to that person. I don’t think Kara Young was a “girlfriend”. And I don’t think Thurmond’s maid was a “girlfriend”. To put it in modern and very crude terms I think those two would fall under the term—and I am only going to use the acronym here, an “FB” (no that does not stand for “fullback”). I would argue it’s very rare to have a true girlfriend of a specific ethnicity and be racist to that same ethnicity. Although I guess, theoretically, you could have strong affection to a girl and “look down on” her race. But again, I think it’s a very rare bird that would fit in the intersecting area of that Venn diagram.

            and…… that’s all I’m gonna say on that one

          2. Anonymous

            So her cheated on his 2nd wife with Kara Young. Serial adultery would get someone impeached if he were a Democrat.

          3. baffling

            if you read the article, peak, you will probably notice she has very little positive to say about trumps behavior today. he seems pretty ignorant of other races at the time. since she is biracial, he probably did not even know that she had a black mother. in his defense, he was only concerned that she was a model. trump considers “model” as a desirable race.

      2. baffling

        steven, you are going down a path which will make you look stooopid if you continue. i don’t think you understand what it means to be racist. it is more than simply words. she was young and immature with poor taste in her response. there is a long line of folks you should claim racist before you get to the point of ms jeong on that list. if your boy ever made such derogatory commentary online, would you consider him a racist? or would you say he is young and stupid?

        Reply
        1. pgl

          “you are going down a path which will make you look stooopid if you continue.”

          He is following the marching orders from the alt-right. Yea – that is pretty stooopid!

          Reply
        2. Steven Kopits

          If my boy made such comments online and then was hired by the NYT, yes, that’s a big deal. It’s not how my children are raised. If any of my children posted the stuff Jeong did online, there would be a huge blowup in the family. That sort of stuff is not tolerated here.

          Reply
          1. baffling

            steven, i don’t care if it is tolerated or not. would you consider your son a racist because he responded poorly to online harassment? and would you push to have him fired from the times? not accusing your son of this, as i imagine it is not something he would do. just asking if you would pass the same judgement on him as you did on sarah?

          2. Steven Kopits

            Yes, I would. But he would be in trouble long before an event like this. He’d be in trouble by dinner time the same day.

          3. pgl

            If your child had to deal with the garbage she has had to deal with – one would hope you would man up and take those hurling these slurs at your child to the cleaners. Of course given you whiny little behavior here – I suspect you would run like the coward you are. Good thing this woman does not have to depend on you.

          4. CoRev

            Pgl, all the conservatives have dealt with your garbage now for decades. Has it helped your ego? Has it assuaged your anger? Have you ever relented with the lies and personal attacks? Not that I have seen.

            You are still the poorly socialized and perpetually angry child you have been for as long as I can remember seeing your inept responses.

  3. pgl

    Oh Lord – Princeton Steve is trying to get noticed for what turns out to be his flip flopping. First this Princeton clown goes after the NYTimes for not firing Sarah Jeong which of course backs an alt right attack on the media and now he posts something sensible:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/new-poll-43-of-republicans-want-to-give-trump-the-power-to-shut-down-media

    “New Poll: 43% of Republicans Want to Give Trump the Power to Shut Down Media
    The “enemy of the people” talk is working. A plurality of self-identified Republicans say they want Trump to have the power to take “bad” media outlets out.:

    Sam Stein wrote a good piece. But let’s be clear – PeakRacist raced this on false pretenses. And Princeton Steve objects to us calling this out?
    Hey Steve – let us know when you make up your confused racist mind!

    Reply
  4. Bruce Hall

    Menzie,

    I think you should write an economics blog as you are highly qualified. 😉

    Strangely absent from the comments:
    • estimated costs associated with the California fires
    • cost and effectiveness of fire prevention actions
    • economic strategies to incentivize better forest management
    • establishing a tax structure that dis-incentivizes building in high risk areas
    • costs and benefits of regulating land immediately surrounding structures in high risk areas

    But the ad hominem comments were first class.

    Reply
    1. noneconomist

      Good advice from the guy who’s sure “hordes” of people are leaving California, that any population gain–even in suburbs carried by Trump– has to come from south of the border refugees, who’s positive you can’t live anywhere here for less than six figures and those who do are living in poverty, who’s sure a 2000 sqf house costs $2,000,000, who can’t see where California can be any place close to Wisconsin economically….But no need to go on here.
      The subjects you’ve suggested for further analysis definitely deserve further study. And, we don’t even need to add “diverting” water to the Pacific Ocean.

      Reply
      1. Bruce Hall

        non, I’m not sure what/if you have a problem with my comment, but for your edification: https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/San-Francisco-CA/20330_rid/1500000-2000000_price/6018-8024_mp/pricea_sort/37.847341,-122.323323,37.702973,-122.543049_rect/11_zm/

        fyi, my son just purchased one for $1.9MM / 1,900 SF in just a nice neighborhood (not top end). But I still don’t see what that has to do with:
        • California fires
        • economics of forest fire prevention/management
        • border issues (you brought that up)
        • 5th grade name calling (I brought that up)

        But since you brought the subject up (Good advice from the guy who’s sure “hordes” of people are leaving California): https://www.marketwatch.com/story/people-are-leaving-california-in-drovesand-this-is-where-they-are-going-2018-05-31
        Now, I don’t claim to be a demographics expert, so feel free to rail against Marketwatch. (I hope an article from one month ago is current enough for you)

        Oh, did you have any information to add regarding my original points about subject comments that were lacking? Surely you have opinions about what are the optimal approaches to this ongoing problem in California.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          First you and your buddy PeakDishonesty say they are fleeing and now it is that there are too many people leading to those fires. You two should go on a date and get your talking points straight!

          Reply
          1. Bruce Hall

            pgl,

            Net migration is different from overall population change… and I suspect you know that. There appear to be incongruities among the different sources with respect to what is actually happening with regard to net migration and I don’t presume to know what is the real case. As I said, the Marketwatch article to which I provided a link indicated a net out migration based on these data: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-no-letup-in-home-prices-the-california-exodus-surges-2018-05-03

            Now that doesn’t mean California’s overall population didn’t grow from births. But people making the choice for in or out seem to have opted out.

            One other observation with regard to forest fires. Cailfornia’s ARB should ban the burning of fossil fuels including wood and related vegetation. This should be sufficient to bring these fires under control as long as the California ARB is given a much larger budget and many more personnel to handle the greater regulatory load.

        2. noneconomist

          First, congratulations to your son on being able to afford a $1.9 Million home .You’ve no doubt been a part of ability to place himself in such a good spot. However, according to the California Association of Realtors, the statewide median is $539,000, bumped up, of course, by high dollar areas where your son likely purchased his home.
          There are plenty of counties where medians are much lower, both south and north and extreme north where medians in the $200s are the norm, not the exception. (San Bernardino, $293K, Fresno $276K, Riverside $405K, Merced $275K, Shasta $281K, Sacramento $375K, Lassen $212K, Siskiyou $187K).
          Special good news for Trumpers: Tulare County, home of Trump bootlicker Devin Nunes, had a June median of $234K, while next door in Kern–represented by “My Kevin” McCarthy– the median is a very modest $245K.
          Who am I to argue with the California Association of Realtors? (Alas, my own 1500 sqf home on acreage with good water is located in a zip code where the median is under $400K, mine shown online at around $380K. One house for sale nearby is custom built 3850 sqf, plenty of water on acreage, $620K, a far cry from that $1.9 Million that you seem to believe applies to homes across the state).
          California is actually gaining population, although not nearly as fast as in previous years. Not coming in droves, but who am I to argue with the California Dept. of FInance which in its May release said, California added 309,000 residents in 2017.
          “Growth was strongest in the more densely populated counties in the Bay Area, the Central Valley, and Southern California…Of California’s 482 cities, 421 saw gains…57 saw reductions…4 experienced no change.”
          “The three fastest growing counties on a percentage basis …were Merced, …Placer…and San Joaquin…all attributing their growth to a combination of housing construction and domestic migration.” (Placer and its neighbor El Dorado, another red county with a population gain, are two of the state’s 10 wealthiest as measured by income)
          The unfortunate outflow in California is centered on those with less education and training whose incomes tend to be $50K (or less) and has been for the past few years. The inflow tends to be those with more education and in demand skills who earn $100K or more and whose ranks include those who can afford $1.9 Million homes. One significant current problem: there aren’t enough construction workers–even with wages in in mid to high $20’s to go around . And yes, the high cost of housing, plays a role in that shortage.)

          Reply
    2. JBH

      Bruce: What is stranger still. This from the web. “I live in California. Brown responsible for fires. He ran the state into the ground financially. Set fires to get federal emergency money. Last time state got federal emergency money they used it to pay off debts and for legal aid for illegal immigrants. Fire victims didn’t get shit.” I myself cannot confirm this. But I have seen like comments. And more often than not, where there is smoke there is fire. The one certain exception to this folk wisdom is fake news from the corrupt-to-the-bone MSM. Smoke from the MSM is actually blowing smoke. Another like the MSM is the CFR, an organization of elites that’s kept Americans in the dark geopolitically (other than if the truth fit their agenda) ever since its inception.

      Reply
      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        JBH: Thank you for this statement. I am bookmarking it. It is a prime example of black helicopter thinking. I must admit being disappointed that you left out the Masons, Illuminati, and the Trilateral Commission. Question: Do you agree with Mr. Trump that Senator Cruz’s father was involved in Kennedy’s assassination. Inquring minds would like to know.

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          Some of these comments are so cliché-ically bad (can I make up my own word?? “cliché-ically”??) I really almost wonder if they are poking you in the ribs for a response. And again, I can’t figure out why they come to this blog??—>> i.e. nutso wackjobs attracted to reason?? What am I missing here??

          Reply
        2. Moses Herzog

          Rumor has it, JBH gets most of his news from Tuck Buckford.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2YeK3NyqMc

          Who is, apparently, very dangerous for America. “Much more dangerous” than say, a Mark Zuckerberg
          https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/17/technology/indictment-russian-tech-facebook.html

          https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/technology/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-russian-ads.html

          https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/17/us/politics/cambridge-analytica-trump-campaign.html

          https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/cloak-and-data-cambridge-analytica-robert-mercer/

          I’m hoping this doesn’t come across as “black helicopter”, but my stance has always been “There are enough real conspiracies out there, we needn’t manufacture them.”

          Reply
        3. JBH

          Menzie: Bookmark these, too. Hand out in class. Political Ponerology, Lobaczewski, 2006, the great classic work on evil. The International Bankers, World Wars I, II, and Beyond, Mujahid Kamran, 2015, on the New World Order. Psychological Warfare and the New World Order, Servando Gonzalez, 2010, on the CFR. F.D.R.: My Exploited Father-in-Law, Curtis Dall, 1967, the real truth about the New Deal and the US entry into WWII straight from the horse’s mouth. Hitler: Beyond Evil and Tyranny, R.H. S. Stolfi, 2011, US Naval Post-graduate School professor, retired Marine, and author of gold standard works on the Eastern Front side of WWII. A History of Central Banking and the Enslavement of Mankind, Stephen Mitford Goodson, 2014, what’s actually gone on in the financial sector of the economy as distinct from the real physical sector, by a former central banker. All on Amazon. All heavily documented. All highly and well-reviewed. And yet another, free pdf on the web: The Controversy of Zion, Douglas Reed, written in 1951 but put on the shelf for 22 years because this highest-ranking correspondent of the London Times, author of a half-dozen best sellers , was blackballed when his Far and Wide came out. By whom you might ask.

          And one hundred more such works, Menzie. Read ‘em and you pass kindergarten. Fake history. Fake news. All this and more is coming out as I’ve posted before. There is panic in the media. Now after Trump’s Tampa rally yowls of conspiracy theory from the MSM. History teaches the universal principle that when the cries get this shrill always it is a sign that a real conspiracy is desperately being kept away from the eyes of the public. God’s Greatest Light Show is about to begin. Forty-five thousand sealed indictments about to be unsealed. Those whose belief systems are hermetically sealed against the truth being continuously shot at them like arrows will be the last to comprehend. Only those with minds wide open will be able to comprehend and adjust their beliefs in line with the new information.

          The economic sphere is wrapped within a larger sphere. That sphere impinges with great force on the economy. Anyone who does not understand this does not understand economics. Though they be a Nobelist. The paucity of forecasters who saw the Great Crisis coming ahead of time is ipso facto proof of the ignorance of the profession. Those in search of Truth, who are willing to let the chips fall where they may, will if they read all the above at some point have their own epiphany like Saul on the road to Damascus. Others will be like mustard seeds fallen on barren ground.

          It is well said that De gustibus non est disputandum. So even more robustly with Truth.

          Reply
          1. 2slugbaits

            JBH Your posts should be a lesson for today’s youth experimenting with psycho altering drugs. You must have been a serious abuser in your youth. Either that or you’re one helluva a comedian.

          2. Moses Herzog

            Menzie, I feel sad that your dry sense of humor (example Elders of Zion) is lost on a significant portion of this blog. Probably the same group that thought David Letterman was a “smart-ass” or “curt” when he had just hit the bullseye.

            Chinese people I think, at least in America, have been very underrated on their sense of humor (with some small exceptions like Ali Wong, etc). Spending 7 years in China I had a significant portion of my Chinese friends really had killer humor and could make me laugh in some dark moments. When you say stuff like that it makes me fondly think back to them.

          3. Moses Herzog

            The Hitler book JBH mentions is one of the more flattering ones in existence. There’s a “shocker”.

            I’m a strong believer in allowing people to express themselves (as I have stated related to Alex Jones, who I do not like or respect). But if there was a reason to block a commenter, that comes about as near as it gets to qualifying.

          4. noneconomist

            Casting doubt on the heretofore firmly held belief that a bottle in front of me is better than a frontal lobotomy.

      2. 2slugbaits

        JBH What you read on the web must be true…after all, didn’t it come from someone named “QAnon”? BTW, we’re still waiting for that piece of explosive news that was going to blow the lid off the MSM. What happened there? Will that come with the Rapture?

        Reply
        1. noneconomist

          Makes you long for the days when you could just single out Jews, Catholics, Masons, et. al., as the locus of evil.

          Reply
        2. Moses Herzog

          @ 2slugbaits
          Your query on the due date from JBH: “for that piece of explosive news”

          I happen to know the exact date this will occur. It will be the same date of “Princeton”Kopits prediction that Xi Jinping will wave the white flag and beg forgiveness from the non-voting Chinese peasantry. Roughly, according to “Princeton”Kopits “precise calculations”, anytime inside of the next 50 years give or take 6 months margin of error.

          Reply
          1. 2slugbaits

            The guy’s a nutjob. Part of me feels sorry for people who are that disturbed, but my less compassionate side can’t help but laugh and giggle at their craziness. Of course, JBH’s counsel to be patient is just his way of ensuring his prediction is forever unfalsifiable. The tragic thing is that unhinged folks like JBH are allowed to vote but small time felons who have served their time aren’t. That’s how we end up with mentally deficient politicians like Trump. And speaking of Trump’s mental problems, it sounds like the big scoop from Omarosa’s secret recording of Trump is that it shows a man clearly not in control of his mental faculties who rambles and endlessly repeats himself. Doesn’t sound like a stable genius to me.

      3. Bruce Hall

        JBH
        Well, that is strange. But I think I’ll stick with my points above… and add the point that regardless of the topic of the article, the comments mainly disregard the topic and economic implications and go straight to 5th grade.

        Reply
  5. Moses Herzog

    Could be some good news tonight in the House of Representatives. Lefties feeling downtrodden are encouraged to check NYT. I don’t have cable, but I imagine Maddow will be doing doubletime on this, so…..

    NYT’s paywall has been more strict lately, I will check LA Times and if anyone has any non-cable suggestions for places to watch results please put them in reply to this comment. I’m particularly interested in podcasts or “live streams” put out by nerdy wonk types tonight. Thanks!!!

    Reply
  6. Moses Herzog

    Balderson (R) won Ohio for anyone wanting to know. They’ll go it it again in about 3 months, where I assume Balderson will win again.

    I would assume Kobach and his main Republican opponent will have a run-off, each got 41%. But I don’t know Kansas’s rules on those things. Seems how that would work out in most states.

    Reply
  7. Moses Herzog

    Again, the Jeong thing just doesn’t bother me that much (pasty white male here). In fact, I can see the humor in it. I’ve been told I’m “belligerent” when enjoying alcohol. I beg to differ. But the standard reply is “If I was rude/foolish when drinking, what’s your excuse??” Some people are crotchety ALL the time. People need to lighten up, Not every statement anyone makes has to be the “be all, end all” of anyone’s life.

    Agree or disagree, I think even Miss jeong’s defenders would say this is creative:
    https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/08/branco-cartoon-unfit-to-print/

    Reply
  8. ilsm

    How fires in Cali got in to a young Asian American woman frightening us “old white men”……..

    Might as well look at a rare event: truth told at fox news by Geraldo Rivera:

    “I think that our entire policy vis-à-vis Iran is bankrupt,” Rivera said on Fox’s The Five. “I think that we have totally picked the wrong enemy in the Middle East. In my experience in decades of war reporting, the nuisance, the evil doer, is Saudi Arabia. It was the Saudi Arabians who were the 9/11 hijackers. They’re ISIS, they’re al-Qaeda, they’re al-Shabaab, it’s the Sunni Saudi Arabians who are the real problem. The Iranians, I believe we can do business with them. They’re the sheiks of Rodeo Drive in southern California. They’re the Persians.”

    While Cali burns the US is setting up government crack downs like in Syria to excuse empire expansion.

    Find the Shah’s heir!

    Reply
    1. PeakTrader

      The point is, the leftists lunatic fringe has become quite large.

      They call anyone on their right racists, although they’re not racists.

      While, defending their actual racists and sexists, along with practicing racist and sexist behavior without even knowing it!

      Reply
      1. PeakTrader

        Of course, not all Democrats belong to the lunatic fringe, but they no longer dominate the party.

        The lunatic fringe believes they can take advantage of vulnerable women, at least till recently, and destroy republican women.

        That doesn’t seem to be a big deal to them, and they can chalk it up to “bimbo eruptions.”

        Reply
  9. pgl

    Ezra Klein gets what Sarah Jeong was tweeting and he also gets how the alt-right crowd is misrepresenting what this fuss is about:

    https://www.vox.com/technology/2018/8/8/17661368/sarah-jeong-twitter-new-york-times-andrew-sullivan

    But here is the sage advice from Ezra – never tweet. I certainly never have and never will.

    Of course when one tried to make a sensible comment even here – it will be misrepresented by the likes of “Princeton Steve”. Who of course I’m done with anyway as none of his comments here are worth reading.

    Reply
    1. CoRev

      Pgl claims: “Of course when one tried to make a sensible comment even here…” That is so seldom that it gets lost in the noise we do see from you. Who are you kidding? Certainly not those of us who still read your comments.

      Reply
        1. CoRev

          Pgl, let me repeat: “That is so seldom that it gets lost in the noise we do see from you. Who are you kidding? Certainly not those of us who still read your comments.”

          Reply
    2. PeakTrader

      In pgl’s world, an Asian woman cannot possibly be racist.

      Racists are only white Trump defenders and supporters, particularly, when they disagree with Pgl.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        What a dumb and dishonest comment. Yes – Asian women can be racists. The issue here of course is that after a lot of white race baiters like you fired all sorts of disgusting insults at the woman – you expect her to thank you, get in the kitchen, and cook you dinner. Since she choose not to be so submissive to your white supremist maledom – you decide to smear here.

        Guess what PeakLoner – this is why NO woman will ever go out with you.

        Reply
      2. baffling

        peak (and steven), the power of racism is not that it simply casts a culture or race in a negative light. the power comes from a privileged class who has the authority to minimize or hurt another race. racism is not simply negative words or feelings, but the ability to demean the value of other races through economic, social, and physical barriers. do you really believe a poor slave who called his owner a “honkey” (fill in your own choice of word here) was a racist?

        Reply
        1. Steven Kopits

          Baffs –

          I do not believe racism should be conflated with class or economic status. Archie Bunker would have been racist towards, say, black NBA players, who were way richer than he was.

          Racism is properly understood as a subset of fascism, in my opinion, that is, the exclusion or marginalization of a person or class of persons based on inherent characteristics of race, religion, ethnicity or national origin. One can debate the extent to which exclusion based on education, income, political views, or behavioral characteristics is conservative or fascist. From the top down, it may look conservative, ie, anyone with $200,000 can join Mar-a-Lago. From the bottom up, it can look fascist, ie, a poor person may feel that the chance of joining Mar-a-Lago is, in effect, impossible.

          Thus, a person of any race or religion can be racist with respect to any other, eg, Malays in Malaysia viz the Chinese there, who constitute the economic elite.

          More here: https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2018/5/21/a-conservative-hierarchy-of-needs

          Reply
          1. Moses Herzog

            @ “Princeton” Kopits
            Insult the blog host, then panhandle your blog on that same host’s website. CLASSY

            WOW, Menzie needs an award for tolerance.

            Can’t you give some payola to Alex Jones and panhandle whatever it is you supposedly offer anyone there?? That is your target demographic after all.

          2. baffling

            “I do not believe racism should be conflated with class or economic status.”
            steven, as i said before, the power of racism comes from a privileged class who can control or hurt another race. a black slave could call his white slave owner all the names in the book-and it would be meaningless because he has no control or authority over the white slaveowners life. racism is not symmetrical in its application-and this is what annoys many white folks, because they are on the short end of the stick. the use of the n word is an example.

            “Archie Bunker would have been racist towards, say, black NBA players, who were way richer than he was.”
            fictional character to begin with. but if his racism was meant to reduce the earnings potential by rallying the white population to boycott the nba and its black workers, would you reconsider whether he was applying his pressure from a privileged class? or say a real character, such as donald trump, applying pressure to the black workers of the nfl with threats of boycotts and firings? and in archie bunkers case, in the 70’s, do you think “class” was equal between whites and blacks?

            steven, racism is most definitely related to economic and social class, and the desire to suppress one group to the benefit of others. a white supremacist does not despise a jew or black man simply because his skin is black. he despises him because he does not want the black skinned man to hold any authority over him. quite the contrary, he wants to hold authority over the black man. economically and socially. there is no doubt class and economic status plays a role. i can appreciate you wanting to make this distinction in your model, but you are at a point where theory and reality are now clashing. you need to accept reality for what it is and modify your theory.

        2. CoRev

          Baffled, thanks for this definition: “peak (and steven), the power of racism is not that it simply casts a culture or race in a negative light. ” So you are a admitting you are a racist against conservatives. What I have found is that liberals are not only hypocrites but also can rationalize almost any behavior of one of their group member (even deeper hypocrisy), even if that member is them self.

          Reply
  10. pgl

    It seems Princeton Steve is so dumb he cannot read this own link here:

    “Not entirely clear that the Central Park Five were actually innocent in the case, according to this analysis”

    Check #3 which starts with

    “A man confessed to raping and attacking the Meili. Matias Reyes”

    Yes – everyone knows Reyes raped this woman. Even Trump knows this but it seems the village idiot called Princeton Steve does not?

    Reply
  11. 2slugbaits

    It’s not just California that’s suffering from heat and drought. The European Space Agency has some nice videos comparing land masses in July 2017 to July 2018.

    Here’s Denmark: https://www.esa.int/spaceinvideos/Videos/2018/07/Denmark_scorched

    And here’s Britain: https://www.esa.int/spaceinvideos/Videos/2018/07/From_green_to_brown_in_a_month

    And here’s Berlin: https://www.esa.int/spaceinvideos/Videos/2018/07/Berlin_battles_heatwave

    You get the idea.

    Reply
    1. CoRev

      2slugs, I get it! It’s Summer, and in Summer temps are higher than other seasons. Another interesting fact is that all years are not the same. Wow!

      Reply
        1. CoRev

          Baffled, I take it you disagree with my statements. Please elucidate their errors. Otherwise the idiot is identified as yourself.

          Reply
  12. baffling

    “2slugs, I get it! It’s Summer, and in Summer temps are higher than other seasons. Another interesting fact is that all years are not the same. Wow!”
    this is simply a stupid statement coloser. hey, why not bring in a snowball to show global warming is not occurring. but you have flip-flopped on warming and cooling for years. remember when the hiatus indicated global warming was not occurring, until you changed your position to say it was occurring but it was not man made. then the hiatus disappeared. idiot.

    Reply

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