If the Cleveland Fed nowcasts are accurate, month-on-month CPI inflation will be down, core CPI rising slightly from 4 to 4.2% (annualized). Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized inflation from CPI-all urban (blue), and nowcast as of 8/30 (light blue square),  from personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (black), chained CPI  (brown), sticky price CPI (green), and 16% … Continue reading Inflation Outlook – Looking Forward to August Data