Why the Administration Is Happy Not to See the October Employment Numbers

Or, “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth!”

If (1) private NFP as measured by BLS equals ADP private NFP in October, ADP private NFP consensus gain of 28K is realized, (3) the 100K government employees signed up under the deferred resignation program (DRP), who effectively resigned on September 30, were not re-employed by the week of October 12th, and (4) net government employment gain is zero, then we have the following picture.

Figure 1: ADP Private nonfarm payroll employment (blue, left scale), Bloomberg consensus implied employment (light blue square, left scale); BLS benchmark-implied nonfarm payroll employment (black, right scale), implied NFP (chartreuse, right scale), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: ADP, BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.

The chartreuse line assumes +54K for September, per Bloomberg consensus, and -72K (change in private NFP of +28K, -100K for government employees).

This path is upwardly biased insofar as (1) ADP private NFP has been rising faster than preliminary benchmarked BLS private NFP (but slower than nonbenchmarked), and (2) total government employment dropped 16K in August, even in the absence of the deferred resignation program participants registering as losses.

 

9 thoughts on “Why the Administration Is Happy Not to See the October Employment Numbers”

  1. Macroduck

    On this very topic, we’ve been hearing about sizable job cuts from firms in a number of sectors this year:

    https://www.newsweek.com/list-companies-laying-off-employees-november-10974549

    Challenger, Gray & Christmas say the U.S. is on track for the most layoffs since 2020:

    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2025/10/25/jobs-o25.html

    JOLTS data agree:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NCrs

    Workers, often highly skilled ones, are losing their jobs to cost shocks and computers – tariffs, AI and all that.

    Economists have long tried to grapple with the labor market adjustment and with the sources of business cycles, with mixed success. Why, for instance, don’t highly skilled workers just go and get another job? Surely other firms value their skills.

    By coincidence, I was rummaging through some old reading material and found a paper entitled “Supply, Demand, and Specialized Production” by an obscure economist by the name of James D. Hamilton which sheds a whole lot of light on labor market dynamics when changes in tastes, technology and what-not lead to layoffs:

    https://www.nber.org/papers/w28888

    Changes in technology, tastes and what-not mean different skills are needed all of a sudden (hope I paraphrased adeqiately). Seems highly relevant to our situation.

    1. baffling

      “Why, for instance, don’t highly skilled workers just go and get another job? Surely other firms value their skills.”
      because those skills took many years to refine, and do not always transfer directly to another job. if they want to change jobs, there will be friction as they accumulate the new experiences necessary for the new position. older workers are often reluctant to start over after developing years of experience with a firm or industry. they are smart enough to do so, but impatient. institutional knowledge is valuable to both the institution as well as the worker who owns it. at least this is how I see the situation.

      2. eg

        Also firms are reluctant to hire older workers, as my younger brothers discovered to their cost in their mid-50s

  3. Macroduck

    Okay, last one for now – Nigeria goes on the list:

    https://www.military.com/feature/2025/11/02/trumps-nigeria-warning-military-rhetoric-strategic-implications-and-legal-uncertainties.html

    Like Venezuela, Nigeria is an oil-producer – perhaps not a coincidence.

    Nigeria has its share of trouble, including a couple of insurgent groups upon whose actions the felon-in-chief is predicating threats of military intervention. There is also a budget and economic problem growing out of weakness in the oil sector:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/10/nigeria-loses-6-8bn-to-oil-production-shortfalls-in-8-months/

    Bombing won’t do much other than blow stuff up – blowing stuff up doesn’t make things better. Nigeria’s large population (nearly six times that of Iraq) and large land area (nearly twice that of Iraq) give some idea of the difficulty of ground operations.

    Nigeria’s government has welcomed continued cash and material support, but has rejected any violation of its sovereignty – like bombing or troops.

    Venezuela is nobody’s best buddy and is mostly a drag on its neighbors. Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa and an important neighbor in a rough neighborhood. Ill-conceived intervention (what else?) could further destabilize not just Nigeria, but the region.

  5. joseph

    Off topic but too hilarious to ignore.

    Today is the trial of the Sandwich Guy who is being prosecuted for throwing a Subway sandwich at a Border Patrol agent.

    Former Fox talking head Jeanine Pirro and now DC US Attorney tried to get a felony indictment and the grand jury refused. So she went back for a misdemeanor indictment and now is proceeding to trial.

    Sandwich Guy has become a DC folk hero immortalized on numerous posters and murals around the city.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/DNgGz2ETyGi/

    Testimony:
    Border Patrol agent Lairmore testifies that he was not injured by the sandwich, but he felt the impact through his ballistic vest. The ballistic vest designed to stop rifle bullets.

    The sandwich came apart and “kind of exploded” on his chest upon impact, he says. The sandwich exploded!!! A Molotov sandwich.

    I could smell the onions and mustard, he says. Oh, the humanity! Chemical weapons! These are the same guys shooting protesters in the face with pepper balls and tossing tear gas grenades out of their cars as they drive by.

    Under cross examination by the defense attorney:
    “Do you recognize that sandwich?” the attorney asks, showing a picture of the paper wrapped sandwich lying on the ground.

    Lairmore won’t confirm. Apparently could be just any sandwich lying on the ground at his feet.

    “That sandwich hasn’t exploded at all, has it?” defense asks.

    “It looks like a little bit is coming out towards the bottom,” Lairimore replies. Apparently a fizzled IED.

    Then, over prosecution objections, the defense elicited Larimore’s confession that other agents gave him a plush sandwich toy, which he placed on a shelf in his office and a patch that said “Felony Footlong”, which he placed on his lunchbox.

    So it seems that the CBP is taking this all as a joke and the case in not about assault but about public humiliation.

Comments are closed.