Beware the risk and liquidity premia, when inferring inflation expectations from breakevens.
Business Cycle Indicators, at the Beginning of August
Consensus July employment growth at 200K, June GDPNow rises 0.5% m/m, and GDPNow at 3.9% q/q AR.
The Sensitivity of Economic Sentiment to Partisan Affiliation
One of the puzzles of current times is why overall assessments of the economy have not risen in accord with actual developments (say, as summarized by the Misery Index), and relatedly why those gains have not redounded to the incumbent president’s approval ratings (discussion here). I don’t have answers, but I have some observations.
Private NFP in July
ADP surprises (again) on the upside (324K vs. 189K Bloomberg consensus). I’m not sure we should take too much from that development.
A Wisconsin Senator in the Conspiracy
Specifically, Senator Ron Johnson’s role:
Defense Spending over Time
Real defense spending is higher than at the Reagan buildup, but is (much) lower as a ratio of real GDP.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Stays the Course”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Timing: CHIPS Act or Military Keynesianism and the Manufacturing Building Boom
Reader JohnH, on considering the timing of the boom in manufacturing structures investment, writes:
Treasury Yield Forecasts and Projections: CBO vs. Economists’ Consensus
CBO above market?
Structures Investment Booms (esp. in Manufacturing)
From the advance release: