Does a Trump dummy “work”? Reader sam writes:
i think you’re putting too much weight into too few observations.
Some things to make your analysis more convincing 1) show the if predictive accuracy increased with a trump dummy OUT OF SAMPLE or 2) try placing the ‘trump dummy’ variable a few months before or a few months after and see if that changes the coefs. i doubt you’ll see much of an effect.
And we are less than one-third of the way through November.
Arkansas and Missouri voted to raise minimum wages. Time to worry? Here’s a graphical depiction of CPI-deflated minimum wage up to September, and into 2021.
That’s the title of a new volume released today, edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge.
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This graph of Kansas employment during the Brownback years is suggestive.
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These conclusions (reported in this working paper written by Louis Johnston and me) stand in contrast to those obtained by Noah Williams, and reported in this CROWE Policy Brief.
From the Denver Post:
Warren Hamilton passed away at his home in Golden, Colorado on October 26, 2018 at age 93. His primary career was as a research scientist with the US Geological Survey in geologic, and later geophysical branches. He was a geologist known for integrating observed geology and geophysics into planetary-scale syntheses describing the evolution of Earth’s crust and mantle. After retirement in 1995, he became a Distinguished Senior Scientist in the Department of Geophysics, Colorado School of Mines where he taught classes through fall of 2017. Warren also taught classes through winter of 2017 with the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute. He was a member of the National Academy of Sciences, and a holder of the Penrose Medal, the highest honor of the Geological Society of America.
Warren served in the US Navy from 1943 to 1946, completed a bachelor’s degree at UCLA in a Navy training program in 1945, and was a commissioned officer on the aircraft carrier USS Tarawa. After returning to civilian life, he earned an MSc in Geology from USC and a PhD in Geology from UCLA in 1951. Warren was preceded in death by his wife of 67 years, Alicita. He is survived by three children, Larry (wife Leslie), Kathy (husband Steve Harhai) and Jim (wife Marjorie Flavin), six grandchildren and six great-grandchildren.
At a minimum, trade policy uncertainty has risen. Whether that has resulted in the stagnation in exports is an open question.
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This Saturday, the Center for Contemporary Opera presents scenes from an opera composed by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand.
Regression 1982q4-2018q3:
f = -18.52 + 0.028pop + 5.182trump
Adj.R2 = 0.18, N = 144, DW = 2.07, bold denotes significance at 10% msl using HAC robust standard errors.
Where f denotes mass shooting fatalities, pop is population in millions, trump is a dummy variable for Trump administration.
One can interpret this as follows: a Trump administration quarter is associated with 5.2 greater fatalities from mass shootings, or 20.8 on an annualized basis. (Over 1982q4-16q4, the average frequency per quarter is 4.876). Inclusion of a deterministic time trend yields a negative coefficient on population, and a trump coefficient (4.093) significant at 11% msl.