In my interview with NPR’s Jim Zarolli, the question came up about wage developments. Embarrassingly, I had no opinion, having not looked at the data (I know that doesn’t stop some people from opining; in any case, that question and lots of other stuff didn’t make it into the piece that aired). Well, I looked up the data, and surprisingly the level of real hourly earnings in May 2015 is the same as it was in January 2011(!).
Greece: Is Internal Devaluation Enough?
Even if Greek Prime Minister Tsipras is able to maneuver the new agreement through the parliament [0], it’s not clear to me that — even with the aid and reprofiling of debt — Greece will resume growth (see discussion O’Brien/Wonkblog). That’s true even though there has been noticeable adjustment in production costs in Greece.
Discussing Walker’s Record on the Wisconsin Economy
Possible scenarios for Greece
It’s very clear that two things have to happen from here. First, Greece needs relief from its mountain of debt, and second, the country needs to find a way to become more competitive economically.
Continue reading
The Information Content of the ALEC-Laffer-Moore-Williams Economic Outlook Ranking
An Econometric Assessment of the World according to the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC)
China: The Stock Market Meltdown Continues
The stock market continued to decline today, despite vigorous efforts by the authorities. That being said, perspective is required.
Some Recent Research on Exchange Rates
Here is some interesting work I’ve seen recently in Paris and Cambridge, MA.
Ongoing Developments in China
While eyes are on developments in Greece (and rightly so), I thought it would be useful to spend a moment on the uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy’s course (not that I’m the first to point out).
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Open Records Laws (in Wisconsin)
Apparently, we don’t need taxes on tobacco products either! [And Republicans refuse to identify lawmaker behind measure restricting access to legislative records]
I guess William Cronon won’t have to worry any more about having his emails scoured by the Wisconsin GOP. From the Wisconsin State Journal:
Legislative Republicans on Thursday passed sweeping changes to the state’s open records law that would dramatically curtail the kind of information available to the public about the work that public officials do.
The International Aspects of the Employment Release
The headline number for nonfarm payroll employment was decent [1], and although there are worrisome aspects, I think the key take-away is the fact that manufacturing employment is slowing much more than overall. To the extent that manufactured goods proxies for tradables, I think caution is in order with respect to monetary tightening. And yet, I read headlines reporting that the “Fed is on track to raise rates…”[Sparshott/RTE WSJ].