Some quick remarks about the evidence for economic recovery, central bank independence, and Goldman Sachs.
Mike Bryan cautions about difficulties in interpreting seasonally adjusted numbers for new unemployment claims and inflation when the cyclical downturn has been as severe as this one.
Tim Duy looks at the ISM indexes, consumption, and auto sales, and concludes “mounting evidence points to the formation of a rather clear bottom in the most recent stage of this economic cycle.” Even so, Tim’s forecast is on the pessimistic side.
I joined many of my colleagues in urging Congress and the President to remember just how valuable an independent central bank is for the ordinary citizens of this country. You may not pay much attention to central bank independence. But you’ll miss it when it’s gone.
And Paul Krugman has this to say about record profits for Goldman Sachs:
First, it tells us that Goldman is very good at what it does. Unfortunately, what it does is bad for America. Second, it shows that Wall Street’s bad habits– above all, the system of compensation that helped cause the financial crisis– have not gone away. Third, it shows that by rescuing the financial system without reforming it, Washington has done nothing to protect us from a new crisis, and, in fact, has made another crisis more likely.