Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo:
Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
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Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down
So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums:
Central Bank Gold Holdings
A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”.
Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0):
Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P Global monthly GDP flat over the last six months through May, many key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) are flat or falling (although NBER places primary emphasis on employment, which is still rising, along with personal income).
Private NFP Downside Surprise
+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K.
ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for nowcasting the BLS series (coming out tomorrow). But using the relationship between the two series 2022M01-2025M05, what can we expect?
The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”:
Your Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!).
June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF.