IHS-Markit’s monthly GDP now down seven months. Some key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:
Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st
3 Replies
Term Spread Models for Recession by June 2023
Probabilities from 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr spreads:
Inflation, May 2022
Month-on-month indicators down, particularly core PCE:
GDP, GDO, and Seasonally Adjusted vs. Not Seasonally Adjusted
Year-on-year picture:
Business Cycle Indicators end-June
With consumption (nominal at 0.2% vs.0.4% consensus) and personal income May releases, we have the following snapshot of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Does a Decline in the 12 Month Moving Average of VMT Presage a Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
But by and large, VMT on a 12 mms basis turns a bit before or right at the start of a recession.
GDP and GDO, 3rd vs 2nd release
From BEA today:
Is a Decline in Vehicle Miles Traveled a 1 Month Leading Indicator for Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
Another is vehicle miles traveled, which is either very short term leading (ie, failing one month or so prior to the official onset of recession), coincident, or lagging by up to 4-5 months if one is using, say, 12 month moving sums.
So You Think We Might Be in a Recession Today (Part III)
Some people point to initial claims for unemployment insurance.
Reminders: Don’t Accuse People of Manipulating the Data before Figuring Out What Has Been Done, and Other Helpful Hints for Not Losing All Credibility
Some additional notes for my students: