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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Estimates of Q2 Chinese GDP

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From BOFIT today:

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This entry was posted on July 24, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Back to May, Cost of Living-Wise

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According to Cleveland Fed nowcasts today:

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Up, Up and Away: TIPS Yields

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As of today:

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Brent above $100

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Futures, prediction markets:

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Remembering a Cold War adventure in Portugal”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version in Project Syndicate. 


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This entry was posted on July 22, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Don’t Depend on the Foreign Official Sector to Keep on Financing the US CA Deficit

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If previous trends hold:

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Median Usual Weekly Earnings: When the Deflator Matters

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CPI – headline vs. CPI for wage earners and clerical workers:

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Section 338 and Policy Uncertainty

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Donald Trump forces me to learn another obscure trade remedy (from the 1930’s). I’m pretty certain this will not achieve any economic goals, and yet sustain economic and trade policy uncertainty.

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Oil vs. Gasoline and Diesel Prices

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From EIA today:

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Escalation Possibilities

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M. Yacoubian at CSIS today:

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • Estimates of Q2 Chinese GDP
  • Back to May, Cost of Living-Wise
  • Up, Up and Away: TIPS Yields
  • Brent above $100
  • Guest Contribution: “Remembering a Cold War adventure in Portugal”

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.7 (describes  2025:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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