Various observers have argued private employment stagnated in Q2 and after (see debate here), perhaps signalling a recession in Q2. With Wednesday’s Business Employment Dynamics release, we have the following measures of cumulative changes since 2021M09:
With the release of December 2022 consumption and personal income, and November real manufacturing and trade industry sales, plus Q4 GDP, we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That makes two quarters in a row with values close to the historical average, a welcome relief from the modestly negative growth rates with which we started last year.
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From NYT:
The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it tries to seize back its territory from Russia.
I start teaching a couple classes tomorrow; here are some cautionary notes.
From a new working paper by Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona), h/t Torsten Slok:
From Turning Point USA‘s website:
From an Independent Review article by Emre Kuvvet:
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate and LA Times.
Reader Bruce Hall argues that “With the exception of travel related and luxury related items, the monthly adjustments[to the CPI] tend to be relatively minor…”. I beg to differ.