With the release of the personal income and spending release, we have real consumption (-0.1% vs. 0.0% m/m consensus) and personal income through February; also released today is real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Below, in the graph of key business cycle series followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, I add the 3rd release of 2022Q4 GDP (discussed in context of GDO and GDP+ in yesterday’s post).
With GDI reported, we no longer have to guess in order to calculate GDO. GDP+ is also reported out. We have the following picture through Q4.
Here’re some indicators at the weeky frequency for the real economy.
Here’s the growth path according to the FT-IGM survey that closed March 16th, about a week after the unfolding of events surrounding SVB.
Estimating through March 29, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
A two regime Markov switching model for the log of M2 velocity, 1959-2022, as suggested by Rick Stryker:
Rashad Ahmed brings my attention to the following:
That’s a comment by Steven Kopits.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Here’re some indicators at the weeky frequency for the real economy. Bloomberg notes that GDPNow (3/16) combined with SEP median of 0.4% growth rate for 2023 implies 3 quarters of negative GDP growth starting in Q2. The latest data below relate to late in Q1.