In the Challenger, Gray and Christmas report for January is an interesting table, reporting the job losses attributed to each factor.
Announced Job Layoffs Attributed to AI
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Is Accelerating Inflation Just around the Corner?
Households say yes (preliminary), while Wall Street economists says no:
0.68%: Truflation Y/Y CPI Inflation Rate as of 8 February 2026
The Cleveland Fed nowcast for February 2026 as of today is 2.34%.
What Could Go Wrong? The AI Asset Price and Investment Boom
Last semester, teaching the Financial System, I laid out three things that worried me: Crypto & stablecoins, private credit, and the AI boom. How’re things looking for the latter?
The Layoff Announcement-Labor Force Ratio and Recessions, 1989-2025
Using Challenger, Gray, Christmas data at quarterly frequency, normalized by civilian labor force.
Nowcasting January Private NFP
BLS will release (w/delay) on Wednesday. Until then, we have ADP (which underwent benchmarking). Using ADP data (2022M01-2025M12) to extrapolate the implied preliminary benchmark, we have the following picture:
USDA Forecasts Near Constant Farm Cash Income…As Long as We Dole Out $44.3 Billion
From USDA on Thursday:
Trade Balance ex-Gold
Layoff Announcements: Do they Lead Actual Layoffs?
Challenger, Gray and Christmas had a startling headline: “January Job Cuts Surge; Lowest January Hiring on Record”.
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas.
Guest Contribution: “Caligula Reincarnated”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate.