That’s the title of a symposium in The International Economy, with Anders Åslund, Scott K.H. Bessent, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Jill Carlson, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Menzie D. Chinn, Lorenzo Codogno, Tim Congdon, Marek Dabrowski, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Heiner Flassbeck, Takeshi Fujimaki, Joseph E. Gagnon, James K. Galbraith, James E. Glassman, Michael Hüther, Richard Jerram, Gary N. Kleiman, Anne O. Krueger, Mickey D. Levy, Thomas Mayer, Jim O’Neill, Adam S. Posen, Holger Schmieding, Derek Scissors, Mark Sobel, Makoto Utsumi, and Chen Zhao.
Economic Report of the President, 2021
Guest Contribution: “The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Financial Markets”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
The Outlook: WSJ January Survey
Upgrades in forecasted growth rates, largely due to expectations of widespread vaccinations.
Interpreting Spreads
Here is a graph of two spreads oft-cited: (1) a term spread, the 10 year-3 month spread, and (2) a spread between a nominal rate and a real rate, the 10 year Treasury yield and 10 year TIPS yield, commonly interpreted as the inflation breakeven. (I leave the credit spread for another post.)
Spreads and Risk over the Past Week (and Months)
I’ve been amazed at how little the last week’s political turmoil has shown up in financial markets. The only thing that seems to have moved anything is the apparent control of the Senate moving to the Democrats.
The Strong Dollar Debate, Yet Again
(Somewhat repetitive of a 2007 post…)
“Richard Cooper, cutting-edge economist”
That’s from the title of a Harvard Gazette article today:
Most economists live in the world of theory, using careful calculations to predict the future. But Richard N. Cooper believed theory couldn’t tell the whole story when it came to solving real-world problems, particularly when they involve the whole world — which he amply demonstrated after a global recession in the 1970s.
The Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics “understood that human systems are complex,” said Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics and Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy, a colleague of Cooper in Harvard’s economics department. “He wanted to bring realism, institutional understanding, and historical experience to economics, not just mathematical technique.”
Cooper, who died Dec. 23 at age 86 from cancer, left his mark on the world of economics from his position at Harvard, where he taught for almost 40 years, and from the White House, where he worked under four different presidents as an adviser and policy expert.
As a researcher, Cooper was a trailblazer….
Entire article here. Jeff Frankel’s remembrance here. Professor Cooper was my first teacher of international economics, specifically international trade. I learned Stolper-Samuelson, the Chicken War (current tariffs on pickup trucks is the enduring legacy), and the demands of the steel industry for temporary (!) protection (this book by Bob Crandall was on the reading list). That knowledge informed my first task as a staff economist at CEA (reviewing a Commerce report on steel). Amazingly, nearly 40 years later, I’m still talking about, not only the same models, but the same topics (e.g., steel).
Cooper’s essay was influential in my senior thesis on macroeconomic stabilization policy in developing countries. And while I didn’t stay in touch with Professor Cooper in the years after graduating — only crossing paths a few times at conferences — his work still influenced my views. Here are some of my Econbrowser posts referring to him: The 2007 ERP on exchange rate determination, A misalignment primer, and A still relevant GAO classic.
Winning (per Trump Dictionary)! US-China Trade
Chad Bown, US-China Phase 1 Tracker:
No matter how you look at it – use data on China’s imports or US exports – through November, China purchased only slightly more than half of the US goods Trump pledged it would buy over all of 2020 under his Phase One deal.
Downside Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators as of January 8th
Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down 100 thousand, contra +81 Bloomberg consensus, even worse than GS and DB.