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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Why I Think Economic Policy Uncertainty Is Likely to Stay High

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The end of the China import tariff pause is about the same time as the debt ceiling x-date…

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This entry was posted on May 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Policy Uncertainty since 1985, Impact on GDP

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Monthly data, with May through the 13th.

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This entry was posted on May 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

*Not* Making the Planes Run on Time

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What exactly has the current administration gotten us? Not lower prices (as was promised). For now, not apparently safer skies.

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This entry was posted on May 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Up

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We should all be relieved that there’s been a 90 day pause in the tariffs on Chinese imports, but since they’re on tap in 90 days, and at unknown levels, don’t be surprised that uncertainty remains high…

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This entry was posted on May 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Momentum in “Core” GDP

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According to GDPNow of 4/8.  However, GDP and final sales are both on a lower trajectory.

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This entry was posted on May 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“Changes in International Economics:  Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”

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I’ll be discussing this topic on Wednesday at the University of Wisconsin’s Union South (5:30), under the auspices of the Madison Committee on Foreign Relations.

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This entry was posted on May 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

GS: “The goods trade deficit widened by $16.5bn, driven mainly by front-loading of imports of pharmaceutical products from Ireland”

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That’s from GS yesterday. Question: Should one stock up on ibuprofen, because I anticipate a lot of headaches coming. Asking for a friend.

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This entry was posted on May 7, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators – 6 May 2025

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Monthly GDP is added to key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:

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This entry was posted on May 6, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Plain Vanilla 12-month ahead Recession Predictions

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Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate:

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This entry was posted on May 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

American Association of Physicians and Surgeons Opines on … Gold

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For my sins, I get emails from AAPS:

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This entry was posted on May 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Why I Think Economic Policy Uncertainty Is Likely to Stay High
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty since 1985, Impact on GDP
  • *Not* Making the Planes Run on Time
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty Up
  • Momentum in “Core” GDP

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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