CEA Chair Phelan on the need for a 50 bps increase in the Fed funds rate, given the hot CPI readings today, contra Waller and Logan (Bloomberg):
“The Whites of Their Eyes”
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CPI Upside Surprise
High relative to Bloomberg consensus , +0.4% vs. +0.3% m/m for headline, +0.3 vs. +0.2% for core:
Naval Deployment as of 11/9
Theodore Roosevelt CSG en route, Boxer ARG nearing the region:
Furman and FRB/US on the AI Boom’s Impact
Jason Furman has put up a macro simulator based on the FRB/US model. Today, he traces out the model’s implications regarding the AI boom.
Feasible Cost of Living Reduction
Today, in “Democrats Promised to Fix the Economy. What Can They Really Do?” (WSJ), Grossman, Whalen and Bade argue that Democrats can do very little to lower the cost of living.
Interest Sensitive and Insensitive Investment and the Two Speed Economy
Aggregate nonresidential investment has surged despite elevated interest rates. The aggregate conceals the mixed.
Equities Held by Households, 2000 and Now
Estimates for 2026Q2, Q3, compared to 2000.
An AI Boom Reversal: Mechanics vs. Economics
Suppose the AI capital investment boom recedes as asset valuations deflate. Some thoughts on implications.
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Grows
Key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, as well as alternative indicators:
A List of Cost of Living Reduction Measures
It would be hard to reduce the relevant price level and financing costs, but one could drop the price below the current policy trajectory (based upon this post). Ignoring political feasibility, it’s still useful to know what economic theory and empirics would say works.