Standardized indicators:
Gallup, U.Michigan, Conference Board Compared, Plus Morning Consult
Leave a reply
How Badly Is the Russian Economy Doing?
Nobody knows. But when the official statistics show negative growth, it must be pretty bad.
Wisconsin Post-“Liberation Day”
Employment and goods exports have declined. GDP flatlines in Q4.
Aizenman, Desbordes and Saadaoui: Quantifying Trade Destruction from Bombs & Bullets vs. Taxes and Sanctions
That’s my description. From their newly released NBER Working Paper, Bilateral Conflict Risk and Trade: Military Wars, Trade Wars, and Diplomatic Noise, by Joshua Aizenman, Rodolphe Desbordes and Jamel Saadaoui:
More on the Gasoline Price Outlook
Lydia De Pillis has an article in the NYT on how gasoline prices don’t move one-for-one with oil prices:
Using Today’s Futures, Don’t Expect Gasoline Prices to Soon Return to Antebellum Levels*
Front month Brent futures (for June) jumped tonight. Where are gasoline prices going, conditional on those futures being predictive.
What Drives the Administration’s Trend GDP Forecast?
Consider this graph, comparing the Administration’s forecast to the latest WSJ forecast, and an error correction model incorporating Census population forecast.
Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
The optimism of Friday has been wiped away. The odds of a re-opening by May 15 down to 37%, and June contracts up by 5.9%.
Guest Contribution: “Is a Natural Resource Curse Crowding Out US Renewable Energy?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim for research assistance.
Irrational Exuberance in Prediction Markets?
With the recent drop in odds for Strait of Hormuz re-opening, time to examine how credible Mr. Trump’s remarks are being taken. To me, with odds back to below pre-cease fire rates, it seems to me punters should be a little less credulous, In other words, given Mr. Trump’s penchant for overstatement, why do we see these gyrations?