Per Eeckhout (2023), actuals for CPI and PPI, and nowcast for PCE, headline and core.
Instantaneous CPI, PCE deflator, and PPI Inflation in March
Leave a reply
“Central Banking in a Time of Crisis: An International and Interdisciplinary Perspective”
Wisconsin International Law Journal conference tomorrow (Friday) at the UW Memorial Union.
Yao Yang at UW Madison: China’s Slowdown – Structural or Cyclical
Presentation at UW Madison (sponsored by CEAS), on Friday, April 12th.
Inflation Surprise!
Here’s a graphic depiction of the extent of the surprise, in levels, relative to Bloomberg Consensus and Cleveland Fed nowcasts.
Studies in Sophistry: Rich States, Poor States 17
Today, ALEC released the latest assessment of state-by-state economic outlook and economic performance, authored by Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams.
100 Years of Recession Prediction Using the Term Spread
It doesn’t always work.
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Probabilities from the March 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Steve Hanke Says the Recession Cometh
See here.
with a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year. There have only been four contractionary episodes of the money supply since the Fed was established in 1913. With a lag, they all produced a RECESSION.
Manufacturing’s Progress
Output, employment and value added:
Thinking about Trade War II
A flurry of investment bank newsletters (Wells Fargo, GS) impels me to look at what happened to the aggregate trade balance in the wake of Trump’s tariff hikes: