Headline CPI has risen the least since 2025M01:
Eight Measures of the US Price Level
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Brent vs. Gasoline and the Gasoline Stock Drawdown
Gasoline prices through Monday, vs. Brent. Why the divergence?
Personal Income, Corporate Profits
Not standard NBER BCDC indicators, but still interesting. First, all measures of personal income (pretax, aftertax) are down while consumption growth slows.
Business Cycle Indicators: Personal Income Trending Down
Real consumption upside surprise, but large personal income ex-transfers downside surprise, plus downward revisions (along with Q1 GDP downward revision).
A Natural Experiment? Markwayne Mullin Helps Out Fledgling Econometricians in Search of a New Dataset
The Hill reports that the Homeland Security Secretary is:
How Long Can Consumption Continue to Rise Strongly as Income Growth Slows?
Bloomberg consensus for tomorrow’s release of April real consumption is for flat growth.
Kevin Hassett on Survey Sampling and Index Theory: He’s NEC — Not CEA — Chair, but Really?
From Kevin Hassett on Sunday’s Face the Nation:
Update: Grocery Price Outlooks Compared
This Bloomberg article spurred me to update yesterday’s post:
A combination of factors including bad weather, tariffs and a dwindling cattle herd are already pushing up grocery prices at an above-average pace. In April, they rose by the most in nearly four years, and economists say the impact of the Iran war and a potential El Niño weather pattern will only add to pressures into 2027.
ARIMA on Grocery Prices
Food at home prices are outpacing the CPI.
Confidence Upside Surprise on Upwardly Revised April
From Conference Board, May reading of 93.1 vs Bloomberg consensus of 91.9, on an upwardly revised April measure of 93.8 (up from prel. 92.8). Here’s the landscape of sentiment and confidence indicators.