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Five Measures of Private Employment

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Various observers have argued private employment stagnated in Q2 and after (see debate here), perhaps signalling a recession in Q2. With Wednesday’s Business Employment Dynamics release, we have the following measures of cumulative changes since 2021M09:

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This entry was posted on January 27, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of end-January 2023 and Q1 Nowcasts

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With the release of December 2022 consumption and personal income, and November real manufacturing and trade industry sales, plus Q4 GDP, we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:

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This entry was posted on January 27, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Fed hasn’t stopped GDP from growing

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That makes two quarters in a row with values close to the historical average, a welcome relief from the modestly negative growth rates with which we started last year.
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This entry was posted on January 26, 2023 by James_Hamilton.

Up to 50 M-1 Abrams MBTs to Ukraine

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From NYT:

The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it tries to seize back its territory from Russia.

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This entry was posted on January 24, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Rookie Economist Errors: A Compendium

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I start teaching a couple classes tomorrow; here are some cautionary notes.

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This entry was posted on January 24, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Inflation

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From a new working paper by Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona), h/t Torsten Slok:

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This entry was posted on January 23, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Deja Vu. Oder, “Haben Sie einen Professor zu melden?”

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From Turning Point USA‘s website:

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This entry was posted on January 22, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Party Affiliations of Fed Economists and Purported Political Homogeneity

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From an Independent Review article by Emre Kuvvet:

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This entry was posted on January 22, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Crashing Through the Debt Ceiling”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate and LA Times. 


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This entry was posted on January 22, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

A Graphic Exposition on Seasonality in Key Macro Indicators

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Reader Bruce Hall argues that “With the exception of travel related and luxury related items, the monthly adjustments[to the CPI] tend to be relatively minor…”. I beg to differ.

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Five Measures of Private Employment
  • Business Cycle Indicators as of end-January 2023 and Q1 Nowcasts
  • Fed hasn’t stopped GDP from growing
  • Up to 50 M-1 Abrams MBTs to Ukraine
  • Rookie Economist Errors: A Compendium

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