Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021). This list seems relevant as Canada records two consecutive quarters of negative growth, French Q1 growth is revised to a small negative, and one Q2 nowcast for Euro Area is negative as of today. ECRI, a common source for business cycle chronologies, has not to my knowledge declared a turning point since the end of the pandemic-related recessions.
Peak in Personal Income ex-Transfers: September 2025 or January 2026?
The latest release shifted the peak in real personal income excluding current transfers — a key indicator followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee — from January 2026 to September 2025, and changed the q/q annualized growth rate through March from -0.7% to -1.3%.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index
Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment:
Eight Measures of the US Price Level
Headline CPI has risen the least since 2025M01:
Brent vs. Gasoline and the Gasoline Stock Drawdown
Gasoline prices through Monday, vs. Brent. Why the divergence?
Personal Income, Corporate Profits
Not standard NBER BCDC indicators, but still interesting. First, all measures of personal income (pretax, aftertax) are down while consumption growth slows.
Business Cycle Indicators: Personal Income Trending Down
Real consumption upside surprise, but large personal income ex-transfers downside surprise, plus downward revisions (along with Q1 GDP downward revision).
A Natural Experiment? Markwayne Mullin Helps Out Fledgling Econometricians in Search of a New Dataset
The Hill reports that the Homeland Security Secretary is:
How Long Can Consumption Continue to Rise Strongly as Income Growth Slows?
Bloomberg consensus for tomorrow’s release of April real consumption is for flat growth.
Kevin Hassett on Survey Sampling and Index Theory: He’s NEC — Not CEA — Chair, but Really?
From Kevin Hassett on Sunday’s Face the Nation: