Recession Forecasts with and without Debt-Service Ratio

In a previous post, I presented forecasts of recession based on probit models using term spread plus short rate, and term spread plus short rate, foreign term spread and debt service ratio. The latter only went of to 2024M03 since BIS only published debt service ratio data up to March. I have extrapolated the ratio to June, so as to obtain the following forecasts.

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