Talking about the Iran war in macro class yesterday, a student asked if the oil price increase seen to date constituted an “oil shock”. I answered, in terms of price increase so far, not yet, and terms of level, oil prices are still fairly low. However, it then occurred to me that there is a intermediate measure, due to Jim Hamilton. First, WTI oil prices:
Somewhat surprisingly, VIX remains relatively low.
/s/ owner of internal combustion engine passenger vehicle…
From notes for PA854 (before AD-AS chapter), to be discussed tomorrow:
CME FedWatch indicates staying put next meeting, rises by nearly 5 percentage points; staying at current rate rises at the 29 April meeting by nearly 10 percentage points.
Up for geopolitical risk, not for financial.
Tensions in the Mideast cause a spike. One hour into futures trading:
What to expect in the February release.
Employment fell as EPU rose; production stalls as Geopolitical Risk spiked.
Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for February, y/y inflation will be 3%, instantaneous at 3.2%, 3.6% instantaneous using Goldman Sachs estimate based on today’s PPI release.