Tyler Godspeed (former acting CEA Chair Trump 1.0; chief economist ExxonMobil) observes that shocks as determinants of recessions means they are essentially unpredictable.
113 Years of the Real Oil Price (WTI)
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Brent: Closing in on Post-Strike Highs
From Barchart, 9:30pm CT:
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratios
From Yardeni:
Federal Budget, Economic Report of the President, 2026 Coming Out April 3
According to Politico, if you were wondering when the budget was coming out. The budget should have come out February 2nd.
What’s the Plan?
I see currently betting on US troops in Iran by April 30th at 70% (a high of 72% earlier today), with betting on maximum oil price in 2026 of $145/bbl.
Five Year US Treasury CDS
In case you were wondering:
“Geopolitics becoming ‘key risk’ for central banks – panel”
Central Banking news account from the conference The ECB and Its Watchers, on Wednesday:
Sentiment Dives to Near “Liberation Day” Levels
Final U.Michigan sentiment at 53.3, down from preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations down 2.4 pts from preliminary.
The Administration Campaign to Push Down the Fed Funds Rate: “Computer Says ‘No'”
The Year (and 2 months) of Living Dangerously
Economic Policy Uncertainty (US, Global), Trade Policy Uncertainty, GeoPolitical Risk, Stock Market, and (now) Oil Volatility all enhanced from January 2025 onward. Coincidence?