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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Prospects for Oil Prices: Supply Shocks vs. “Demand Destruction”

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The Houthis expand control of the Red Sea side of Yemen, threatening remaining Saudi oil exports — and yet prices fall.

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Core CPI Upside Surprise and FOMC Odds

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Core CPI m/m came in at +0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

UW Madison Public Affairs: Market Based Solutions to Societal Challenges

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Opening for Assistant Professor of Public Policy (Market-Based Solutions to Societal Challenges)

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Sentiment Declines as Inflation Expectations Rise

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From U.Michigan, preliminary results for September:

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

The Cost of Living vs. Hourly Earnings

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Real average hourly earnings:

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Ten Year Treasurys and TIPS, Change since 2/28

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From Treasury:

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Heating Oil Prices Rise

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From EIA, as of yesterday $4.725/gallon.

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Ten Year Rates Up

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Yesterday close, today:

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

High Real Interest Rates Because of Incipient Rapid Growth?

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That’s former CEA Chair Miran’s argument in the FT. Is this assertion empirically validated? A graph from Hamilton, Harris, Hatzius and West (2016) suggests, maybe not:

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Petroleum and Petroleum Product Prices

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Data through 9/7 from the EIA:

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • Prospects for Oil Prices: Supply Shocks vs. “Demand Destruction”
  • Core CPI Upside Surprise and FOMC Odds
  • UW Madison Public Affairs: Market Based Solutions to Societal Challenges
  • Sentiment Declines as Inflation Expectations Rise
  • The Cost of Living vs. Hourly Earnings

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.0 (describes  2026:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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