That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was +0.4%; a 2 ppts difference). Here’s the implied GDP levels.
Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074.
When consumer sentiment drops as precipitously as it has (see here), then one has to ask if a recession is in the offing in this month. Here’s I’m using the U Michigan consumer sentiment index to determine if we’re in a recession now (i.e., not forecasting).
In Biblical contexts, War, Death, Pestilence and Famine. Well, with the Trump administration, check, check, check, and check!
From the CPI release, food at home (aka grocery) prices:
DWD released February employment numbers yesterday; DoR’s February Economic Outlook forecast was also published.
Expectations in March (prel.) at 54.2 vs. 64.3 Bloomberg consensus. Thanks, Drumpf.
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lucas Boeckelmann, Rinalds Gerinovics, and Baptiste Meunier (all ECB). This column reflects the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
Data available as of today, first for headline: