The optimism of Friday has been wiped away. The odds of a re-opening by May 15 down to 37%, and June contracts up by 5.9%.
Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
Leave a reply
Guest Contribution: “Is a Natural Resource Curse Crowding Out US Renewable Energy?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim for research assistance.
Irrational Exuberance in Prediction Markets?
With the recent drop in odds for Strait of Hormuz re-opening, time to examine how credible Mr. Trump’s remarks are being taken. To me, with odds back to below pre-cease fire rates, it seems to me punters should be a little less credulous, In other words, given Mr. Trump’s penchant for overstatement, why do we see these gyrations?
MacParity, January 2026
Answer to Question 5 on Problem Set 4 in Public Affairs 854:
Unsettled Weather in the Midwest: So Glad Trump Cut 600 Staff from National Weather Service
After all, what do those uppity meteorologists know that the DOGE guys didn’t.
From Ranking Member Meng Opening Statement at the National Weather Service Hearing (March 26, 2026):
Auto Prices – Adjusting for Quality and Mix
Following up on comments to the post “Where did all the affordable cars go”, a typical new vehicle bought in 1960 was $1900; in October 2025, it was over $50000. What does that mean?
1.5% m/m Ann’d: What Headline CPI Inflation Has to Be to Restore Pre-War Trend by Dec. 2026
Suppose we get a durable resumption of reopening of the Strait. Oil prices will likely stay elevated for some time (resumption of normal conditions maybe 3-4 months, oil-wise). Assuming the current Cleveland Nowcast for April CPI is correct, what will inflation have to be for the rest of the year to hit pre-War trend?
Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Other Business Cycle Indicators
G.17 release today shows downward movement in industrial, manufacturing production (-0.5%, -0.1% vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1% m/m). Industrial capacity utilization also below consensus.
“Flash Talks on Iran, Oil, and OPEC” (UW Madison, Thursday, 4:30-6)
“Participants provide quick overviews of how the US’s current conflict with Iran affects energy supplies, relations in the Middle East, and economic stability.”
Part of “International Organizations and You” flash talks at UW Madison Law School, sponsored by the Global Legal Studies Center. This talk organized by Tana Johnson (Public Affairs).
GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others
Adding in IMF WEO projections, as well as nowcasts/tracking: