Weekly and daily readings through 8/13:
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Mid-August?
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Retail Sales, Inflation Adjusted
Beating consensus for July.
Looking Back at Q2 – Imminent Upward Revisions?
IHS Markit moves 2022Q2 tracking from -0.3% to -0.2% SAAR today. Goldman Sachs moves from the advance official of -0.9% to -0.4% SAAR. Continue reading
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-August 2022
Industrial production and manufacturing production exceeded consensus (0.6% vs. 0.3%, 0.7% vs. 0.2%, respectively) yielding the following graph of key indicators.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Beginning August (Part II)
Follow up to “So you think we’re in a recession as of beginning August”…and rejoinder to those who believe we’ve already been in recession for a while.
US and Euro Area Headline Inflation Compared
Using flash estimates for Euro Area HICP. US inflation m/m , q/q falling:
One Year Ahead Expected Inflation
Firm expectations nudge up, but household/consumer expectations are down. Survey of Professional Forecasters forecasts as of early July, out on Friday.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Beginning August
We’re roughly a month into Q3. Here’s a view, written a week ago:
…based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of End-July – UI Initial Claims Edition
Some observers argue the rise in unemployment insurance claims signals we are in, or soon to be, in a recession (e.g., [1]). Here’s an alternative view (A follow up on “So you think we might be in a recession today” Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II, and “So you think we might be in a recession as of mid-July”.)
The CPI Level
Reader Bruce Hall writes: