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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

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Michigan Sentiment (Prelim Surprises

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on the upside. But the disjuncture between (inverted) misery and sentiment (and confidence) continues.

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This entry was posted on December 8, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators with November Employment

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With nonfarm payroll employment in November released (+199K vs. +180K consensus), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (plus monthly GDP). The employment series below incorporates the preliminary benchmark revision.

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This entry was posted on December 8, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

“Real wages have been stagnating”

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That’s a quote from reader JohnH. I think whether this statement is true depends on wage measure, deflator.

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This entry was posted on December 8, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Do not freak out about the Jobs-Workers Gap (or the Sahm Rule)”

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Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.


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This entry was posted on December 6, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

FT-IGM (Booth School) US Macroeconomists Survey on the Outlook

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Survey results are out, for responses as of 12/4. FT article here.

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This entry was posted on December 6, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Is Economic Activity Really a Lot Lower than It Seems?

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Lavorgna (SMBC Nikko) and Millar (Barclays) say look to GDI for a better estimate of economic activity. Both argue that GDI might better signal an incipient recession (USAToday):

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This entry was posted on December 5, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators including Monthly GDP

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Monthly GDP, as estimated by SPGMI (formerly IHS Markit/Macroeconomic Advisers) drops 0.5% m/m (-6.3% annualized!)

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This entry was posted on December 4, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Long-term yields, the term premium and US monetary policy”

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Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, and Fabrizio Venditti of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.


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This entry was posted on December 4, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

The Foreign Born Labor Force

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and wages in food processing:

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This entry was posted on December 4, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Russia Invasion Skeptics on the Eve of the War

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Good to remember, as we come up to Russian expanded invasion +2 years. Reader JohnH (February 16th, less than a week before the “Special Military Operation”‘s commencement, ridiculing the thought that Russia was embark on further aggression:

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This entry was posted on December 2, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Michigan Sentiment (Prelim Surprises
  • Business Cycle Indicators with November Employment
  • “Real wages have been stagnating”
  • Guest Contribution: “Do not freak out about the Jobs-Workers Gap (or the Sahm Rule)”
  • FT-IGM (Booth School) US Macroeconomists Survey on the Outlook

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Oct 26, 2023)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 3.0 (describes  2023:Q2)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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