Tim Duy thinks the fanfare about a new Chinese currency policy is overdone:
The PR overload suggests the Administration is desperately in need of a “win,” no matter how trivial….
While China appears willing to adjust the parity rate, changes are likely to be more window dressing than anything else. The industrial base shifted from the US to China over the past twenty years, a transition aided by the Clinton Administration’s commitment to a strong dollar, and it is not going to come rushing back for a few percentage points of currency value. The structural shift has happened, and it won’t reverse easily.
When Bill McBride says he expects house prices to decline, I pay attention:
When months-of-supply is below 6 months, house prices are typically rising– and above 6 months-of-supply, house prices are usually falling…. We are much closer to the price bottom now than in 2008, and I don’t expect that severe of a price decline. But I do expect house prices to fall in the 2nd half of 2010 and into 2011– probably another 5% to 10% for the major house price indexes (Case-Shiller and CoreLogic).
A federal judge overturned the moratorium on new deepwater offshore drilling:
“An invalid agency decision to suspend drilling of wells in depths of over 500 feet simply cannot justify the immeasurable effect on the plaintiffs, the local economy, the Gulf region, and the critical present-day aspect of the availability of domestic energy in this country,” [U.S. District Judge Martin] Feldman wrote….
The temporary injunction by [Judge] Feldman appears unlikely to bring a swift resumption of deepwater drilling: Oil companies say they’re reluctant to start new ventures as an uncertain appeals process unfolds.