Links for 2012-01-18

FT Alphaville on crude oil and the eurozone crisis.

“http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/01/evaluating-recession-forecasts.html”>Jeff Miller does not buy into recent forecasts of a U.S. recession. On a related note, Bonddad deconstructs the ECRI Weekly Leading Index.

VoxEu notes the systematic international tendency for official deficit figures to understate the magnitude of the change in public debt.

Liberty Street Economics on forecasting with internet search data.

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5 thoughts on “Links for 2012-01-18

  1. Robert Baertsch

    The FT alphaville article says that the EU trade deficit is growing from 67% due to oil imports to 80%. No wonder they won’t back the oil embargo. What the % of the US deficit is due to oil imports?

  2. ppcm

    Interesting paper from the IEA on probability forecast in oil and gaz price,implied volatility (variance for expected capital gain priced in the option) is used to determine a confidence interval.The wider the range the higher the probability of price range occurrence.As always the year 2000 supplies an inflexion point to all markets and the oil and gaz markets in particular (please see volume in futures trading graph 3,4 P5).The confidence interval, that is the wider price range assuming no major geopolitical disruption is hovering between 76$ and 109$.IEA http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf.A steady margin forecast for the refiners P11.
    That will provide for a transition to Economics one,whilst the index components are weak since very subjective (please read the supplied references to Hermitage index)
    American Economic Freedom: Moving in the Wrong Direction (http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/)
    That will provide for an easy reference to Merryl Lynch,bank of America article “This crude old eurozone crisis Ft Alphaville”
    Who is subsdising whom?

  3. Bonddad

    Prof. Hamilton
    Thanks for te mention. However my co-blogger New Deal Democrat Performed the ECRI analysis

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