Real interest rates are declining. Measured economic policy uncertainty is rising. Figure 1: Ten year constant maturity TIPS, % (blue, left scale), Economic Policy Uncertainty (red, right scale). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assumes continues through July.,  Source: Treasury, policyuncertainty.com, accessed 20 July 2020, NBER. What about the stock market (and the VIX)? This … Continue reading Declining Confidence in Trump Economic Management