Core CPI m/m came in at +0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus.
Core CPI Surprise and FOMC Odds
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UW Madison Public Affairs: Market Based Solutions to Societal Challenges
Opening for Assistant Professor of Public Policy (Market-Based Solutions to Societal Challenges)
Sentiment Declines as Inflation Expectations Rise
From U.Michigan, preliminary results for September:
The Cost of Living vs. Hourly Earnings
Real average hourly earnings:
Ten Year Treasurys and TIPS, Change since 2/28
From Treasury:
Heating Oil Prices Rise
From EIA, as of yesterday $4.725/gallon.
Ten Year Rates Up
Yesterday close, today:
High Real Interest Rates Because of Incipient Rapid Growth?
That’s former CEA Chair Miran’s argument in the FT. Is this assertion empirically validated? A graph from Hamilton, Harris, Hatzius and West (2016) suggests, maybe not:
Petroleum and Petroleum Product Prices
Data through 9/7 from the EIA:
Interesting Word of the Day: Carousel
For the first couple of months of my stint on the CEA staff back in 2000, I had to cover trade issues (my designated area was international finance). One of the first words I learned walking into the EEOB/OEOB– that I hadn’t heard of in my grad school classes — was “Carousel Retaliation”.
From CRS: