A reader asks me about my 2025H1 recession call. I don’t have one, but here’s the latest depiction of indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, as well as alternatives. Only consumption and vehicle miles traveled (and heavy truck sales) seem indicative of recession (maybe GDP using GDPNow).
Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%.
From Atlanta Fed:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at the Pyle Center, UW Madison.
The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter vesion, was published by Project Syndicate.
Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news” index stands at 2.83%.
Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close).
In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised down by 1.27 ppts. GDPNow adjusted for gold imports is on track to match WSJ forecast.