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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”

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Video of proceedings tomorrow (Tues, 9/16) on WisconsinEye.

Source: Pawel Skrzypczynski, accessed 9/14/2025.

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This entry was posted on September 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”

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That’s the title of an article reprinted at the Heritage.com, by current BLS Commissioner-nominee EJ Antoni,

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This entry was posted on September 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Thanks of a Grateful (Coffee-Drinking) Nation

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Coffee prices up and away — in the US.

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This entry was posted on September 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…

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The CEA-OMB-Treasury (“Troika”) forecast looks out of line with the CBO projection and the SPF median forecast.

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This entry was posted on September 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”

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That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre):

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This entry was posted on September 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Sentiment Declines

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Here are standardized indices for Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence, and Gallup Confidence.

 

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Employment in the Context of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision

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Like national employment, Wisconsin employment was downwardly revised (preliminary), by 79K. Splicing in the change as BLS would do yields the following picture of Wisconsin NFP.

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth

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From the CPI release:

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

I Laughed and Laughed and Laughed

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From the Hill oped, Sen. Mullin opines:

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Core Inflation

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Up.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”
  • EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
  • The Thanks of a Grateful (Coffee-Drinking) Nation
  • CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…
  • The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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