Skip to content

Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…

Leave a reply

Hard to assess, since we don’t know how much was blown.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out

3 Replies

From the report,faster growth in the world, US – but US level below pre-Trump trend:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 16, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth

2 Replies

WEI and WECI, for data releases through 10/11/2025:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 16, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Business Cycle Observables [updated]

3 Replies

<strike>Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization</strike> [correction: no G.17 release h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński ].

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac

1 Reply

Data suggests that Big Mac prices are far outpacing the CPI, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index. Oh, the humanity!

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated

5 Replies

Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?

7 Replies

The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can tell) is funded out of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. As far as I can tell, there’s no conditionality. This transaction is qualitatively different from Fed swap lines with for instand ECB and BoE wherein the Fed had access to their currencies.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

FX and Gold Reserves in Q2

5 Replies

COFER data is out for Q2. With estimated gold held by the central banks, we have this picture of reserve composition.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth

11 Replies

Out today:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic

2 Replies

When the economy is growing in a steady manner, a missed release is not a problem. But when the economy is on a potential tipping point, the preliminary release and revisions take on a heighted importance. Example: September 2008 net job gains:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on October 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Post navigation

← Older posts

Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Folow us on Twitter

  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…
  • IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
  • Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
  • Some Business Cycle Observables [updated]
  • Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac

Categories

Archives

Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

Proudly powered by WordPress