CBO released its ten year outlook today. Continued but decelerating growth, slightly less optimistic than Administration, noticeably less than the IMF, and FT-Booth survey.
CBO, Biden Administration, IMF and Other Forecasts
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Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January
Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the upside. First, indicators followed by the NBER BCDC:
Administration Forecast vs. FT-Booth, SPF vs. Nowcast
From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024.
Chinn and Irwin: “International Economics” (Cambridge Univ Press), Available Now
Are you teaching international economics in the spring? Or just want to learn more about the field? Consider adopting/purchasing this new textbook, by myself and Douglas Irwin (available now in digital format, January 31st in hardcopy from Cambridge University Press).
The CPI Rose…as Did Wages (mid-2022 to 2024)
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni shared this graph of the CPI level:
Instantaneous Inflation
Headline up, core down.
Reconciling the CES NFP with CPS Employment Adjusted to NFP Concept
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni has been describing the gap between the establishment NFP series and the CPS employment series as the basis for evidence of mismeasurement of employment by the CES. Goldman Sachs notes today (Peng, “Revised Immigration Estimates Will Close Much of the Payroll-Household Employment Growth Gap in January”) that new Census estimates of immigration will imply a big revision in population controls used in the CPS employment series.
Impending Systemic Financial Crisis in Russia?
From Newsweek:
The President-Elect’s Economic Advisers
From Rappaport, Swanson, Duehren, in NYT yesterday, an interestingly monochromatic picture of the incoming economics team.
“southern Caifornia [sic] is about as dry as Wisconsin and Michigan”
In wondering why the LA wildfires had worse outcomes than say those in Wisconsin, Mr. Bruce Hall makes this assertion.