Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
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Agricultural Exports through August
Down from January:
Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition
The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers (deja vu!). Farmer sentiment is pretty low relative to the exuberance note in the aftermath of Trump’s election, as this Purdue/CME survey released today shows:
What If the Supreme Court Strikes down the IEEPA Tariffs
A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using millions of paper checks…)?
An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator
Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here’s the prediction from a simple probit of recession (NBER peak-to-trough) on current 12 month heavy truck sales growth:
Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition
Twenty Two Days in October
That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown duration, as of today. What do we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA? EIA, Census?
Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?
Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t answer that, but given the ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab release, one could understand why (an 82K downside surprise is not earthshaking, but not reassuring either).
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction interval. This is an aggregate number; however, we can infer certain trends from the disaggregate (by firm size) numbers from ADP.
FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%
That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September.