That’s a quote from Bruce Hall, referring to the period 2011 onward. For his reference, I present key indicators of the manufacturing sector during the Trump trade war. Figure 1: Manufacturing production & non-supervisory employment (blue), aggregate hours (tan), production (green), real exports (red), all in logs 2018M07=0 (when Section 301 tariffs on China went … Continue reading “You have to look pretty hard to find the “trade war” effect in the data”