EJ Antoni mangles the data: Given sampling error, it really doesn’t make sense to look at one month’s m/m change in January 2025 (why not December 2024?) against one month’s (preliminary) m/m change in January 2026. Here, I plot the 2024-2026 post-benchmark private employment. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and 2024 stochastic trend … Continue reading Heritage Chief Economist Interprets Biden vs. Trump Employment Trends