We all understand that the Fed’s next move depends on incoming data. But what if the incoming data raise concerns of both higher inflation and slower output growth?
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Commodity price inflation
Commodity markets have been a little too exciting recently for my quiet tastes.
Early indications of trouble
One leading indicator heads south this week.
Congressionally mandated shortages
Last week the U.S. House of Representatives voted by an overwhelming margin to guarantee gasoline shortages the next time we face a significant disruption in petroleum supplies.
Have oil prices peaked?
Oil prices can go down as well as up.
April auto sales
Motor vehicles is one of the key sectors to watch for an indication that the recent gas price spike might derail the current economic expansion.
Reading Bernanke’s lips
I still say that many pundits are using the wrong paradigm for interpreting the public pronouncements of the new Federal Reserve Chair.
More political pandering
Those whose political philosophy is to try to opt for the lesser of two evils may have a hard time choosing their dog in the fight between Senate Democrats and Republicans over gasoline taxes.
Strong first-quarter GDP growth
The expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP growth included encouraging numbers for investment and exports, and warranted a slight drop in the recession probability index.
President Bush and gasoline prices
Unlike some other pundits, I see a number of good ideas in the President’s new proposals and actions announced on Tuesday.