A research paper by Eyal Dvir of Boston College and Ken Rogoff of Harvard suggests some interesting parallels between the recent behavior of oil prices and what was observed at the very beginning of the industry. I’ve been doing some related research on the history of the oil industry that looks into the events behind historical oil price shocks. Here I describe the first oil shock, which occurred a century and a half ago.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Interpreting the employment numbers
There might seem to be some conflicting signals from Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But I see a uniform message in the various numbers– the economic recovery remains disappointingly weak.
Debt ceiling politics
The decision to raise the debt ceiling will be the first test of whether the Republicans can move from tree shaking to jelly making.
Energy cornucopia?
Don Boudreaux and Mark Perry are among those who regard John Tierney’s claims of energy cornucopia to be persuasive.
Best economics blogs
The Wall Street Journal has a new list of the best economics blogs, but may have inadvertently omitted the names of some of the best economics bloggers.
Looking back at the Great Recession
Some people use the end of December as an opportunity for a retrospective on the year. But I decided to take a look back at the last three years, by way of updating some comparisons I made in April 2009 between the Great Recession and the average characteristics of other postwar recessions.
Changes in the yield curve
The bond market sees an improving economy.
Velocity of money
I wanted to follow up on Menzie’s recent observations about what’s been happening to the supply and demand for money.
What to expect in 2011
I didn’t have time to put together a detailed post for today. But fortunately, I see that Bill McBride has done a much better job than I could of summarizing what to look for in 2011.
Did QE2 work?
Having offered my assessment of the effects of the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2), I wanted to mention briefly the takes of some other observers.