Category Archives: energy

New information on the Cambridge Energy analysis of world oil supplies

I earlier expressed concern (here and here) that insufficient details about the analysis of near-term oil supply prospects by
Cambridge Energy Research Associates
had been released to allow outside observers an opportunity to evaluate objectively the basis for their conclusions. The Oil Drum notes that these details are now available from CERA. My impression from examining these is that CERA has good reasons for expecting significant oil production increases over the near term.

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Katrina: Day 2

A sobering day today, as we learned that New Orleans and much of the coast had not been spared after all. The waters swept away what many generations had built, and the task of trying to put it back together seems increasingly daunting.

Others are in a better position than I to communicate progress and needs of the relief effort. For those interested in what the economic implications of all this might prove to be, I offer these thoughts.

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Supply factors in the 2005 oil price surge

World oil production increased 4.2% during 2004, leading many analysts to conclude that demand increases, not supply disruptions, were the story behind last year’s rise in oil prices. As data for 2005 become available, I’m forced to conclude that the reason that oil prices have continued to surge above their values from 2004 is not further increases in demand, but rather concerns about the ability of supply to increase significantly above the 2004 levels.

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