What exactly happens in an economic recession, and how much has Katrina increased the likelihood of one developing?
Category Archives: energy
The calm after the storm
Time to assess the storm damage. From an economic point of view, it looks costly, but manageable.
New information on the Cambridge Energy analysis of world oil supplies
I earlier expressed concern (here and here) that insufficient details about the analysis of near-term oil supply prospects by
Cambridge Energy Research Associates had been released to allow outside observers an opportunity to evaluate objectively the basis for their conclusions. The Oil Drum notes that these details are now available from CERA. My impression from examining these is that CERA has good reasons for expecting significant oil production increases over the near term.
Lockyer to the rescue
I’m starting to think that every day some politician is going to come up with a new idea for how to make the current gas situation worse. California’s Attorney General provides today’s illustration.
Katrina aftermath: good news with the bad
Some sanity was restored to gasoline markets today, in which patches of good news allowed a more level-headed assessment of the size of the logistical challenges ahead. Both hope and despair can be found on the human dimension of the problem as well.
Why lower taxes would bring no relief
Yesterday I applauded the Administration’s actions with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and fuel standards as very sensible and appropriate responses to the current problems. No doubt there will be any of a number of other proposals to “do something” that would cause more harm than good. Cutting gasoline taxes definitely falls in that category.
Coping with the gasoline shortfall
Today’s announcements by the Department of Energy on the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and by the Environmental Protection Agency on fuel standards are steps in the right direction. But we should be clear about the magnitude of the challenges ahead.
Katrina: Day 2
A sobering day today, as we learned that New Orleans and much of the coast had not been spared after all. The waters swept away what many generations had built, and the task of trying to put it back together seems increasingly daunting.
Others are in a better position than I to communicate progress and needs of the relief effort. For those interested in what the economic implications of all this might prove to be, I offer these thoughts.
Impact of Katrina
Hurricane Katrina could have a much bigger effect on the price of gasoline and natural gas than on the price of crude oil. Here’s why.
Supply factors in the 2005 oil price surge
World oil production increased 4.2% during 2004, leading many analysts to conclude that demand increases, not supply disruptions, were the story behind last year’s rise in oil prices. As data for 2005 become available, I’m forced to conclude that the reason that oil prices have continued to surge above their values from 2004 is not further increases in demand, but rather concerns about the ability of supply to increase significantly above the 2004 levels.