Thanks to the comments from many of you, I think I now have a better idea about why
economists have a hard time communicating with others about the issue of peak oil. But I’m not
quite sure what to do about it.
Category Archives: energy
No blackouts yet
Thank you, fellow Californians, for paying due diligence to your conserve-o-meter.
The week in oil markets
The news from China last week could be the first indication of an extremely important
development.
Further discussion about economists and peak oil
The many interesting and thoughtful responses to my invitation for more open communication
between economists and others about peak oil has led me to a clearer understanding of exactly
what it is we’re seeing differently. Here I attempt to state a little more narrowly and
precisely what I see as the key substantive issue that I believe may most merit further
consideration from both sides.
How to talk to an economist about peak oil
I for one would like to see better communication between economists, geologists, and petroleum engineers about the timing and consequences of the eventual decline in global annual production rates of crude petroleum. In part the failure to communicate better with each other stems from differences in the language, assumptions, and paradigms with which those of us from different specialties approach this issue. As one small step toward bridging that gap, I’d like to lay out for noneconomists a few of the key aspects of how economists might think about peak oil.
$100 a barrel– what are the odds?
Talk about where oil prices are headed is cheap, so at least we have plenty of that. But how
seriously does the market take the various possibilities that are being bandied about by the
pundits?
Where did that huge trade deficit come from?
Some have blamed the rest of the world for the rapidly growing U.S. current account deficit.
But I believe that the true explanation is to be found here at home.
Some like it hot
California may again offer the nation a useful illustration this summer of how not to deal
with an energy crisis.
How high do oil prices have to rise before demand actually falls?
That was the question that a reporter from Reuters asked me this morning. Here is what I answered.
Can anything slake China’s thirst for oil?
If China’s oil demand keeps growing at its current rate, it could produce some real problems. But I see a number of reasons to expect that the growth will slow down significantly.