The yield curve has inverted eight times in the last half century, and in six of those
episodes, the U.S. ended up in recession. Some analysts are concerned that we may see a ninth
inversion before the end of this year.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Predicting the Fed’s next move
Fed-watching can be something of an arcane sport. Will the subtle disappointments in the May employment and automobile sales figures persuade the Fed to hold back on another interest rate hike? And what would someone who’s really “in the know” infer from how high Alan Greenspan raised his right eyebrow at his last public appearance? Although playing that game can be fun, it’s actually quite easy for anybody to have a very well-informed belief about what we can expect next from the Federal Reserve.