I recently prepared an entry on the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks for the new edition of the Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Here I sketch some of the material from that essay and explore the implications for where the economy may be headed next.
Category Archives: recession
Oil prices coming down
Oil prices have been coming down significantly this week. Is that good economic news?
What’s good for GM…
U.S. automakers can’t be very pleased about September sales figures.
But you said that more saving was a good thing
After many of us have been arguing for some time that an increase in the U.S. personal saving rate was key for promoting long-run growth and reducing the trade deficit, the American consumer finally obliged with a 0.5% drop in consumption spending in August. But analysts such as Angry Bear and Macroblog see this as an ominous development. So which is right– is more saving a good thing or a bad thing for the economy?
Responding to supply shocks
It seems pretty clear to me that a monetary contraction isn’t the appropriate policy response to a supply shock. Apparently there are those within the Federal Reserve who see things differently.
Consumer confidence plunges
Yet another key leading indicator turns gloomy. How much can the stock market and the Fed shrug off?
On the nature of economic recessions
What exactly happens in an economic recession, and how much has Katrina increased the likelihood of one developing?
The calm after the storm
Time to assess the storm damage. From an economic point of view, it looks costly, but manageable.
Katrina: Day 2
A sobering day today, as we learned that New Orleans and much of the coast had not been spared after all. The waters swept away what many generations had built, and the task of trying to put it back together seems increasingly daunting.
Others are in a better position than I to communicate progress and needs of the relief effort. For those interested in what the economic implications of all this might prove to be, I offer these thoughts.
Recession in 2006-07?
If you just extrapolate the dynamics of past economic expansions, you’d say that a recession within the next few years is quite possible but by no means certain. The question is how much weight you want to attach to some of the other factors.