Judgment, theory and correlations in exchange rate modeling.
Monthly Archives: March 2006
The latest employment figures: implications for policy
Stronger employment growth in February than I and many others had been expecting.
The downward march of the trade balance
Some context for the the latest trade deficit numbers
Rising long-term yields
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is up almost 40 basis points so far this year, which means it’s been gaining on the fed funds rate and reducing the prospect of full inversion of the yield curve. Why have rates been going up?
Still no correction from Homeland Security
The mainstream media finally seems to be catching on to the fact that the Dubai Ports World acquisition of the British port services company P&O would involve not six but over 20 U.S. ports. It’s curious that no one has yet followed up on the fact that the reason the original number was reported as six is because that’s the information that was given out by the Department of Homeland Security.
Do (budget) deficits matter?
Thinking about what happens to interest rates when foreign capital inflows slow
The economics of email
Last week I received the following email message. I bet some of you did, too.
Enhanced oil recovery
The Department of Energy issued a series of optimistic reports on Friday about the potential for carbon-dioxide-based enhanced oil recovery methods (CO2-EOR) to lead to huge increases in U.S. crude oil production.
Another look at near-term oil supplies
Now that the Energy Information Administration has published oil production figures for the full year 2005, I was curious to take a look at how the predictions of Cambridge Energy Research Associates are faring thus far.
Autos limp forward
Could be better, could be worse.