As noted by CNN, the Trump administration’s deactivation of the website tracking climatic-related disasters has been partially alleviated by Climate Central‘s initiative.
In a recent Economist article, Gita Gopinath considered the implications of a AI bust similar in magnitude to the 2001 dotcom bust for the global economy.
As American agriculture faces declining commodity prices amidst (tariff induced) rising input costs and heavy debt loads, here comes uncertainty, elevated by the Federal shutdown (from De Pillis, NYT):
Current betting on Kalshi is for a 34.5 day shutdown (5pm CT), taking us to November 3-4. At this rate, of the NBER BCDC key variables, we will miss consumption and personal income, and the August manufacturing and trade industry sales releases, as well as the Q3 advance GDP release. We’ve already missed the employment situation and industrial production releases.
I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to 0.71 (based on ADP data). Here’s what I got for forecasts of September and October private NFP as reported by BLS:
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization [correction: no G.17 release h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński ].
Per Kalshi, on 10/18 noon CT. At this rate, we miss Metro area Employment/Unemployment, Consumer Expenditures, Employment Cost Index, Business Employment Dynamics, September JOLTS, Productivity and Costs, October Employment Situation releases on their scheduled dates.
Hard to assess, since we don’t know how much was blown.
