One term spread steepens sharply; only one spread has actually inverted. The five year inflation breakeven is falling. And risk is rising.
Doesn’t look like a recession in that month, nor in previous.
There aren’t many measures of euro area wide economic activity at higher than monthly frequency, to my knowledge. One series is the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, based upon big data and machine learning, discussed here. VoxEU post here. This measure shows deceleration in the week through 9/17.
A (conspiracy-minded) reader writes: “Where is this being reported? Heck FRED doesn’t even graph real corporate profit growth. Shhhhh!”. But all one has to do is search for “corporate profits” (5 seconds) and then an appropriate deflator. I use the PCE deflator, and I get the following graph in FRED, which I download:
Year-on-year, activity growth is still growing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a few days ago (September 17th):