In the Harvard Gazette today, and interview with Frankel:
Jeffrey Frankel: “Where next for U.S. economy?”
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators NBER and Alternative, and GDPNow
Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg +0.9% (vs. 0.2% and 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, respectively) but retail sales remain noticeably down from prior peak.
“Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows”
That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC), and Dennis Hoffman (ASU).
Q1 GDPNow at -2.1%; accounting for gold imports guesstimate, -0.1%
That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was +0.4%; a 2 ppts difference). Here’s the implied GDP levels.
The Russian Economy under (More?) Pressure
Economic Policy Uncertainty at Recorded Maximum
Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074.
Recession Now?
When consumer sentiment drops as precipitously as it has (see here), then one has to ask if a recession is in the offing in this month. Here’s I’m using the U Michigan consumer sentiment index to determine if we’re in a recession now (i.e., not forecasting).
The Four Golfcartmen of the Apocalypse
In Biblical contexts, War, Death, Pestilence and Famine. Well, with the Trump administration, check, check, check, and check!
Prices for Ordinary Folk: February and the Future
From the CPI release, food at home (aka grocery) prices:
Wisconsin Employment and Forecasts
DWD released February employment numbers yesterday; DoR’s February Economic Outlook forecast was also published.