From the NYT:
Trump’s Willing Enabler
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators – A Turning Point?
Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second of alternative indicators (recalling all the most recent data will be revised):
Consumers Vote on Economic Prospects
Durables consumption has experienced extreme volatility over the last 9 months (since the election). However, services and nondurables should follow the permanent income hypothesis — at least halfway (DSGE’s usually incorporate about 50% hand-to-mouth consumers). So what do we see?
Agent Chaos Strikes – Multidimensionally!
Policy uncertainty through 8/1:
Is It Seasonal Adjustment?
CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality. Can we see that? I can’t…
August 1, 2025: A Day that Will Live in Statistical Infamy
As of 1:35PM CT today, the President has fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, within 6 hours of the latest employment release. So what all of feared about the safety of the independence of our economic statistical agencies has come to pass. We might as well delegate the employment numbers to Kevin Hassett at the NEC.
Downside Surprise in Employment Levels
Tales from the Employment Situation release for July: (1) July Establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower; (3) Adds data indicating a slowdown.
Guest Contribution: “Trump’s Taylor Rule”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and Sohaib Nasim. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Eve
Baker, Bloom and Davis and Caldara et al. measures:
Instantaneous Core Inflation Again Rising
Though not quite to February rates: