Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, manufacturing production, real retail sales, ADP’s private NFP, and BTS freight services index. The sole exception is the Philadelphia Fed coincident index, based on labor indicators.
Here’s the data through 7/9:
From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027.
Trump on TruthSocial (Bloomberg):
“TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change”
A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words:
There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time to worry.
Source: NYT, July 6, 2025.
The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount, but not too much relative to current policy. However, the composition of overall spending and taxes is altered considerably relative to both current law and current policy. Relative to current law:
Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo:
So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums: