Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently.
Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%
Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45% (Reuters). It’s important to note that these projections are conditional on the path of future policies — which in these times are less clear than ever.
Economic Implications of “a narcissistic populist presidency”
That’s Cliff Winston’s assessment here at LSEblog:
P. Joyce: “Why Protecting the Congressional Budget Office Should Matter to the Congress, and to the Country”
From an article by Philip Joyce (UMD):
Weekly Economic Index, for Data Released through 6/7
Lewis, Mertens & Stock WEI vs Baumeister, Leiva-Leon & Sims WECI:
[Repost] If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids
[Originally posted in December 16, 2024] Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.
Non-Economic Public Service Announcement
If you are a person of color, I suggest carrying your US passport at all times, given recent detentions of US citizens. I certainly am. After all, “mistakes” occur.
Federal Budget Deficit through May
It’s not smaller than this point in 2024:
Macroeconomic Implications of Premature Escalation in LA
ICE raids are concentrated in blue states, including CA, NY. These states account for about 22% of national GDP, at nominal prices (CA 14%, NY 8%; slightly larger if using real GDP):
In Case You Thought Policy Uncertainty Had Declined
Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration to have a handle on things?