Economic growth slightly below trend.
Or, Why We Don’t Use GDP Alone to Determine Business Cycle Dates. First, consider our various measures of output.
Reader Steven Kopits (who doesn’t know what a confidence interval is formally defined as, and thought no more than 300-400 people died in Hurricane Maria) urges me to write a paper with the above title.
Since most of my lecture notes have migrated behind a gate (software called Canvas, used on many campuses), I thought I would share some teaching material that some Econbrowser readers might find of interest.
Justin Ho of Marketplace discussed the implications of the import/export price release Thursday. My view was that pass through into import prices was low in the short run, and even in the long run was not very large, while pass through into the broader price index was unlikely to be large. Not sure I was alone in this view, but here’re my thoughts.
Industrial production comes in under consensus (-0.1% vs +0.2%). Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.