[Inflation adjusted] Personal income excluding transfers and industrial production are falling in October, even as employment rises in November.
The trajectories of the BLS vs. ADP private nonfarm employment series differ, even though for much of the year, the ADP series was above that of BLS.
With increasing term spreads (or, steepening of the yield curve), fears of imminent recession have waned. Does this make sense?
Figure 1: Manufacturing employment, in 000’s, s.a., from BLS (blue), and from ADP (brown), on log scale. Light green shading denotes data that will be benchmark-revised in February release. Source: BLS and ADP via FRED. [Updated 12/7 to include November BLS data]
Manufacturing peaked a little earlier in the ADP data (June) vs. BLS (August), but ADP suggests a much less pronounced rise to peak during 2019.
Or, “Ready, fire, aim”. From Mitchell et al. “The Economics of a Targeted Economic Development Subsidy,” Mercatus Center:
From PredictIt this morning: