Various observers have argued private employment stagnated in Q2 and after (see debate here), perhaps signalling a recession in Q2. With Wednesday’s Business Employment Dynamics release, we have the following measures of cumulative changes since 2021M09:
With the release of December 2022 consumption and personal income, and November real manufacturing and trade industry sales, plus Q4 GDP, we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:
From NYT:
The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it tries to seize back its territory from Russia.
I start teaching a couple classes tomorrow; here are some cautionary notes.
From a new working paper by Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona), h/t Torsten Slok:
From Turning Point USA‘s website:
From an Independent Review article by Emre Kuvvet:
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate and LA Times.
Reader Bruce Hall argues that “With the exception of travel related and luxury related items, the monthly adjustments[to the CPI] tend to be relatively minor…”. I beg to differ.
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Dimitrios Kanelis (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Müun) and Pierre Siklos, (Wilfrid Laurier University and CAMA at ANU). The views expressed here are their own and do not reflect the official opinions of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.