New strikes on Iran tonight, from WSJ:
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On the Eve of Escalation
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Gallup on the Eve of the Election
Decline in Gallup’s October reading.
Naval Deployment as of 11/2/2026
From USNI:
Prediction Markets on the Congressional Balance of Power Odds: Democrats Sweep, 3 to 1
5:30pm CT:
Nasdaq Correction
As of today’s close, Nasdaq down 10%, S&P500 4%, from prior peak.
Recession in France?
A statement by the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) of the French Economic Association (AFSE) on 10/29/2026 (original communique in French), by way of Laurent Ferrara (Chair), and secretariatafse@gmail.com.
Friday AI Fallout
Nasdaq, SP500, Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index, over the last week.
Business Cycle Indicators: GDP, Personal Income, Mfg & Trade Sales, Consumption
GDP is up as Jim discussed. Consumption flat, personal income ex-transfers down. Nominal consumption and income both below consensus by 0.1% m/m.
Guest Contribution: “Europe, the US, and China: Comparing Geoeconomic Size”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim for excellent research assistance.
The Taylor Rule and Today’s Dissents
Two voting members of the FOMC dissented in favor of raising rates. Some context for why that stance might make sense, from Jason Furman’s EconVitals Taylor rule utility.