I recall a conversation sometime in May 2001, when on the staff of the CEA, where the topic was how all the indicators were all pointing toward avoiding a recession. Indeed, using the oft-cited rule of thumb of two-consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, there was never a 2001 recession. Consider this graph of GDP, by different vintages:
IHS-Markit’s monthly GDP now down seven months. Some key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:
Probabilities from 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr spreads:
Month-on-month indicators down, particularly core PCE:
Year-on-year picture:
With consumption (nominal at 0.2% vs.0.4% consensus) and personal income May releases, we have the following snapshot of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
But by and large, VMT on a 12 mms basis turns a bit before or right at the start of a recession.
From BEA today:
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
Another is vehicle miles traveled, which is either very short term leading (ie, failing one month or so prior to the official onset of recession), coincident, or lagging by up to 4-5 months if one is using, say, 12 month moving sums.
Some people point to initial claims for unemployment insurance.