Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26.
Deceleration (through 12/3)!
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
FT-IGM December Macroeconomists Survey – Fed Policy, Impending Recession (and More)
10yr-3mo Term Spread and Recession, Down Under
Here’s a picture of the 10yr-3mo term spread in Australia:
Term Spreads and Recessions, Country by Country Evidence – a Very Incomplete Review
Dr. Rosser asks what is the evidence for term spreads predicting recessions, with special reference to Japan. Here is my partial answer:
GDP Prospects
Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR:
Term Spreads around the World, as of December 6, 2022
Here is a snapshot of four key term spreads spreads through November (an examination prompted by a Deutsche Bank missive title “The Looming Recession” which dropped into my inbox today).
Real Wages during and Post-Pandemic
While recent accounts have focused on the erosion of real wages with high inflation, what is true is that average real wages in the private sector, and amongs the lowest paid segment, leisure and hospitality workers, has risen since 2020M02.
Is the Establishment Series Overestimating NFP Employment?
That is the proposition forwarded by Kevin Drum at Jabberwocking. Verbatim:
So: have we really created 2.5 million new jobs since March? I’m not sure I believe that.
The graph he posted summarizes his argument succinctly:
Short Horizon Inflation Expectations – Survey and Market Based
One year horizon:
GS “Recession Watch” Odds at 35%
From M. Abecasis/GS today: