From Torsten Slok, now at Apollo.
The Impending Food-Service Sector Disaster
15 Replies
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Using One’s Eyes
A reader writes, in reference to CDC Covid-19 data on fatalities and excess fatalities, and how the estimates change over time as new data come in:
‘Twixt Peer Reviewed and Bits on the Web
What to cite when the research frontier is moving fast…
Are Covid-19 Deaths Falling?
I read some claims that Covid-19 fatalities are declining. I want to — again — remind readers about the hazards of interpreting (1) administrative data, and (2) data revisions.
Enhanced Benefits and Outlook: Continuation vs. End
From Wells Fargo Economics today:
Canada/US: Cumulative and New Covid-19 Fatalities per Capita
A reasonable person could ask why, if we’ve done such a superb job of managing the crisis in the US, we’ve done so poorly vis a vis Canada. From FT, today.
The Pandemic in Wisconsin: Projections
As of today, the Covid Tracking Project reports 7 day rolling average of 4.29 deaths/day. IHME at UW projects a fatality rate of 14.83/day by Nov 1st, while Youyang Gu‘s model (forecasting performance discussed here) projects 12/day. Both of these exceed the 7-day rolling average of 11.21 recorded April 12th (according to IHME)
13 Nobel Laureates in Economics on the Choice of President
September 22, 2020
We the undersigned express our support for the economic principles and policies of Joe Biden. While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we believe that Biden’s overall economic agenda will improve our nation’s health, investment, sustainability, resilience, employment opportunities, and fairness and be vastly superior to the counterproductive economic policies of Donald Trump.
Throughout the coronavirus crisis, Biden has recognized that science-based, public health solutions are critical not only to saving lives, but to any viable strategy to restore economic confidence, recovery, and jobs. Similarly, on issue after issue, Biden’s economic agenda will do far more than Donald Trump’s to increase the economic strength and well-being of our nation and its people. Simply put, Biden’s policies will result in economic growth that is faster, more robust, and more equitable.
Signed by 13 recipients of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences:
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George Akerlof – Professor, Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy
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Peter Diamond – Professor Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Oliver Hart – Professor, Harvard University
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Eric Maskin – Professor, Harvard University
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Daniel McFadden – Professor, University of California, Berkeley and University of Southern California
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Roger Myerson – Professor, University of Chicago
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William Nordhaus – Professor, Yale University
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Edmund Phelps – Professor and Director of the Center on Capitalism and Society,Columbia University
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Paul Romer – Professor, New York University
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Robert Solow – Professor Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Michael Spence – Professor and Dean Emeritus, Stanford Graduate School of Business
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Joseph Stiglitz – Professor, Columbia University
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Richard Thaler – Professor, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Link to pdf.
President Trump’s Statement on the Occasion of Covid-19 Fatalities Exceeding 200,000
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Implications of a “No Recovery Package” Outcome
From Deutsche Bank on Sunday:
In the US, fiscal uncertainty is a major issue. As outlined above, we now assume that significant further support will not be forthcoming until after the election. The resulting drop in income support for households is already beginning to depress activity and we see GDP growth slowing to near zero in Q4 as consumer spending slides. Growth will pick up in Q1 with some post-election fiscal support.