Up for CPI and chained CPI.
Instantaneous Inflation in November (and October)
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Likelihood of a Plaza Accord 2.0
Mark Sobel at OMFIF discusses the likelihood of an new Plaza Accord to depreciate the dollar. Given one would need Euro area and Chinese agreement, the assessed likelihood is low
Disingenuousnous Watch
Whose Real Wage?
EJ Antoni writes:
Today’s employment data showed further gains in earnings, but cumulative price increases have still far outpaced earnings growth over the last 4 years.
According to the Household Budget Index, it’s even worse when just considering prices for things you have to buy, i.e., food, housing, etc.
EJ Antoni Worries about the Gap between CES NFP and CPS Employment
From a X post today:
Guest Contribution: “The Business cycle and Economic Policy Uncertainty in France”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment for November 2024
Here are some key indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC, including employment for November (227K vs. 202K consensus, 194K vs. 160K consensus, for NFP, and private NFP respectively).
DiMartino Booth: “We know many government statisticians are very left leaning in nature…”
(Or, ” I have in my hand fifty-seven cases of individuals…”) At 3:44 into this video, this Ms. DiMartino Booth makes this assertion, claiming this is the reason we haven’t seen a recession in the data pre-election.
France’s Sovereign Debt Situation: Some Graphs
Here’re CDS and spreads vis a vis Germany over the past year:
A Contrarian View on Recession Probabilities: Are We Out of the Woods?
As I have observed before, the explanation for why we have not yet seen a recession’s onset in the data yet could be one of the following: (1) the model based on historical correlations is no longer applicable (DGP has changed), (2) we were using the wrong model, (3) the recession is yet to come, but has not yet shown up in the data. In addition, it could be the model was right, and in a probabilistic world, there’s never a sure thing.