on the upside. But the disjuncture between (inverted) misery and sentiment (and confidence) continues.
Michigan Sentiment (Prelim Surprises
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators with November Employment
With nonfarm payroll employment in November released (+199K vs. +180K consensus), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (plus monthly GDP). The employment series below incorporates the preliminary benchmark revision.
“Real wages have been stagnating”
That’s a quote from reader JohnH. I think whether this statement is true depends on wage measure, deflator.
Guest Contribution: “Do not freak out about the Jobs-Workers Gap (or the Sahm Rule)”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
FT-IGM (Booth School) US Macroeconomists Survey on the Outlook
Survey results are out, for responses as of 12/4. FT article here.
Is Economic Activity Really a Lot Lower than It Seems?
Lavorgna (SMBC Nikko) and Millar (Barclays) say look to GDI for a better estimate of economic activity. Both argue that GDI might better signal an incipient recession (USAToday):
Business Cycle Indicators including Monthly GDP
Monthly GDP, as estimated by SPGMI (formerly IHS Markit/Macroeconomic Advisers) drops 0.5% m/m (-6.3% annualized!)
Guest Contribution: “Long-term yields, the term premium and US monetary policy”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, and Fabrizio Venditti of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.
The Foreign Born Labor Force
and wages in food processing:
Russia Invasion Skeptics on the Eve of the War
Good to remember, as we come up to Russian expanded invasion +2 years. Reader JohnH (February 16th, less than a week before the “Special Military Operation”‘s commencement, ridiculing the thought that Russia was embark on further aggression: