Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1) GDP far exceeds nowcasts, (2) potentially more momentum-relevant “core GDP” advances strongly, but much less so than GDP, and (3) alternative estimates of economic activity like GDO suggest slower growth.
From Bloomberg:
A survey:
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper.
A compilation:
Of the BLS, that is. From EJ Antoni writing in Heritage, “Why the Labor Market Is Stronger Than Experts Think”:
From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Numerous commentators have noted anomalies in the latest CPI release. Smith/Bloomberg quotes
“Lost in Translation,” according to TD Securities. “Delayed and Patchy,” per William Blair, and a “Swiss Cheese CPI report” from EY-Parthenon.
In contrast, the downside surprise was hailed by credulous NEC Director Kevin Hassett as “astonishingly good”.
The November unemployment rate came in at 4.6% v. 4.5% Bloomberg consensus. What does the Sahm rule say about whether we’re in a recession or not? Nothing, as we don’t have an October reading (thanks to the wisdom of OMB declaring BLS employees non-essential).
From the retail sales release, nominal retail sales in October constant vs. +0.1% m/m Bloomberg consensus. In real terms, they’re down.