Medium term inflation expectations are muted, growth expectations are recovering slightly, and perceived risk seems contained.
Market-Based Indicators of Inflation, Growth and Risk
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Debt Ceiling As Kabuki
From Marketplace yesterday, “The debt ceiling explained” (Dylan Miettinen):
Where Do Monetarists Think the PCE Price Level Is Going To?
From an email from Tim Congdon, at the International Institute for Monetary Research (9/20):
A New Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Composition
Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a new dataset of the currency composition of international reserves over the 1999-2020 period.
Summarizing China’s Short Term Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Economics analyses the extent of the current slowdown, and contemplates the impact on regional economies. Here’s the heat map:
Motivations for Economic Policies in Western China
I’m not a China expert, but 20 years ago, I had the opportunity to hear the Chinese explanation for their planned policies in Western China (Xibu Dakaifa), translated in English journalistic accounts as “Develop the West” (I was the international finance economist on the Council of Economic Advisers at the time, and the Chinese counterpart, the State Development Planning Commission, was coming to Washington to meet with us; I was tasked with overseeing elements of the meeting).
Wisconsin’s Labor Markets in August
Employment numbers for August were released yesterday. Nonfarm payroll employment fell, and is undershooting the July 2021 Economic Forecast:
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September
Industrial production finally rises above levels in 2020M02 (the latest NBER peak). We now have the following picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC).
More on the China Slowdown
From BBVA (Jinyue Dong & Le Xia) today, discussing August data: “China | Worse-than-expected growth deceleration exposed the vulnerability of its anti-virus strategy”:
Wisconsin Monthly Economic Update
From the Wisconsin Department of Revenue – September issue. The regular publication of Economic Forecast reports (latest here) and the innovation of monthly updates contrasts strongly with the near economic news blackout in the second Scott Walker administration (discussed here). DoR has also added a lot more data visualizations, here.