A lot of chatter about a sugar high coming from the passage of the American Rescue Plan, previous fiscal and monetary measures, combined with the increase in CPI inflation. Time to step back and assess.
A Sugar High?
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Different Economies
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations.
Kevin Hassett Prediction: 7% y/y Inflation by December 2021
Remember this Kevin Hassett projection of Covid-19 deaths, from May 2020?
How Much of US Federal Debt Is Held by Foreign/International Investors
As a share of debt held by the public (i.e., excluding intragovernmental holdings).
One Year Ahead Expected CPI Inflation Rates
Coming down for June, according to the University of Michigan survey of consumers.
More “Reverse Radical” than “V”, but more “V” than “Swoosh”
A little less than a year ago, I think I was in the “Swoosh” camp; I’m still in the “Reverse Radical” camp now, but it is amazing how fast GDP is rising.
Inflation: Three Event Studies
The surprise in inflation for the March, April, and May reference month releases induced respectively 2, 4, and 6 basis point upward moves in the 5 year inflation breakevens — hardly earthshaking.
Interpreting Inflation Rates for May
May CPI inflation surprised on the upside, with month-on-month 0.6% vs 0.4% (not annualized) Bloomberg consensus, year-on-year 5% vs 4.7%. Note that May’s 0.6% month-on-month is below April’s 0.8%, highlighting the decline in high-frequency inflation. We have the following readings on inflation (month-on-month):
Wisconsin Goods Exports during the Trump Trade War
Even before Covid-19 struck, Wisconsin exports were declining despite a sideways-trending dollar…
Guest Contribution: “How Tariffs Affect China’s Exports”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.