Expenditures continue to rise. More appropriations will likely be needed at this pace.
From AP via Forbes:
Report: War Costing US $12B a Month
By ANDREW TAYLOR 07.09.07, 3:58 PM ET
The boost in troop levels in Iraq has increased the cost of war there and in Afghanistan to $12 billion a month, and the total for Iraq alone is nearing a half-trillion dollars, congressional analysts say.
All told, Congress has appropriated $610 billion in war-related money since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror assaults, roughly the same as the war in Vietnam. Iraq alone has cost $450 billion.
The figures come from the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, which provides research and analysis to lawmakers.
For the 2007 budget year, CRS says, the $166 billion appropriated to the Pentagon represents a 40 percent increase over 2006.
The Vietnam War, after accounting for inflation, cost taxpayers $650 billion, according to separate CRS estimates.
The $12 billion a month “burn rate” includes $10 billion for Iraq and almost $2 billion for Afghanistan, plus other minor costs. That’s higher than Pentagon estimates earlier this year of $10 billion a month for both operations. Two years ago, the average monthly cost was about $8 billion.
Among the reasons for the higher costs is the cost of repairing and replacing equipment worn out in harsh conditions or destroyed in combat.
But the estimates call into question the Pentagon’s estimate that the increase in troop strength and intensifying pace of operations in Baghdad and Anbar province would cost only $5.6 billion through the end of September.
If Congress approves President Bush’s pending request for another $147 billion for the budget year starting Oct. 1, the total bill for the war on terror since Sept. 11 would reach more than three-fourths of a trillion dollars, with appropriations for Iraq reaching $567 billion.
Also, if the increase in war tempo continues beyond September, the Pentagon’s request “would presumably be inadequate,” CRS said.
The latest estimates come as support for the war in Iraq among Bush’s GOP allies in Congress is beginning to erode. Senior Republicans such as Pete Domenici of New Mexico and Richard Lugar of Indiana have called for a shift in strategy in Iraq and a battle over funding the war will resume in September, when Democrats in Congress begin work on a funding bill for the war.
Congress approved $99 billion in war funding in May after a protracted battle and a Bush veto of an earlier measure over Democrats’ attempt to set a timeline for withdrawing U.S. combat troops from Iraq.
The report faults the Pentagon for using the Iraq war as a pretext for boosting the Pentagon’s non-war budget by costs such as procurement, increasing the size of the military and procurement of replacement aircraft as war-related items.
I would have preferred to cite the original CRS report, but I couldn’t find a copy online. Below is a graph of monthly cumulative burn rates, with the FY’07 figures as reported by AP.
Figure 1: Monthly burn rate for Iraq Theater of Operations, in billions of dollars per month (bdpm), by fiscal year (blue line). Source: For FY2003-06, Amy Belasco, “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global
War on Terror Operations Since 9/11,” Congressional Research Service Report RL33110, March 14, 2007, Table 1; for FY 2007, from AP via Forbes. Baseline (green), from September 2006 CRS report. For FY 2007-08 “Hi” estimate (red), author’s calculations based upon reported figures (see this post).
The currently estimated burn rate is higher than reported back in January (even after the announcement of the surge), but lower than my estimate from April. On the other hand, without the entire report, it’s unclear to me what is — and is not — included in the cost estimates.
What we do know is the trend in casualties.
Figure 2: Fatalities in Iraqi theater of operations, through June (blue), and 3 month moving average (red). Source: Iraq Coalition Casualty Count accessed on 17 July 2007.
Figure 3: Casualties in Iraqi theater of operations, through June (blue), and 3 month moving average (red). Source: Iraq Coalition Casualty Count accessed on 17 July 2007.
Figure 4: Cumulative fatalities in Iraqi theater of operations, through June (blue), and trend based on entire sample up to June 2007 (red). Source: Iraq Coalition Casualty Count accessed on 17 July 2007.
A last graph depicts US and other non-Iraqi coalition force levels in theater. Note that non-US forces are trending downward, with British forces likely to fall considerably in the next few months.
Figure 5: Troop levels in Iraq theater. Source: Brookings Iraq Index.