Last Thursday, I had the opportunity to participate in a panel on Global Economic Crisis: The Untold Stories, sponsored by the Center for World Affairs and the Global Economy (WAGE). I was tasked with surveying the impact on the economy outside the borders of the United States — in 20 minutes.
Here’s the link to my presentation, but I reproduce one of the key slides here:
Figure 1: Growth rates of real goods and services exports (y/y), by country group. Source: IMF, WEO Oct. 2008 database; Nov. 6 WEO update.
What’s of greatest interest to me is how rapidly estimates of emerging market and LDC export growth were revised downward, going from the October to November projections. This only reinforces my view that the US slowdown will have a disproportionate impact on world trade given the drastic change in the role of the US consumer.
The other participants in the panel were Mark Copelovitch, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs (my colleague at The La Follette School); Edward Friedman, Professor of Political Science; Darian Ibrahim, Assistant Professor of Law; and Mark Ready, Jeffrey J. Diermeier Chair of Finance.
Update, 11/25 12:30pm: Here is Mark Copelovitch’s presentation, where he discusses the politics of global financial governance and how they will shape policy responses to the crisis, including new national-level regulation, international regulatory harmonization, and reform of the International Monetary Fund.
I’ll post the link to the video when available.