…It should be mentioned that the CBO hasn’t provided any evidence whatsoever that the stimulus created 2-5 million jobs. …
I do wonder what would convince Mr. Lawler that any job had been created by ARRA. In the past, when I observed that macroeconomists, including Greg Mankiw, typically analyzed macro impacts in the manner CBO had, Mr. Lawler averred:
Dr. Chinn, my article was about messaging, not economic analysis. I do not claim to be a “real macroeconomist” or anything other than a journalist. I’ll have a response to your criticism soon.
The response includes this statement:
So if you had a priori reasons to doubt the forecast the CBO made in February (and you very well might, given the track record of parts of that forecast), those reasons also apply to their analysis of the stimulus’s job creation. The CBO has not provided any further evidence that would validate or falsify the administration’s predictions, or that would confirm their “jobs created or saved” claims.
So once again, the typical non-economists’ confusion of forecasting and prediction comes to fore.  A recent attempt to deal with such confusions is here Worthwhile Canadian Initiative. Not that I expect it to work on those impervious to education.
Anyway, as before, I thank Mr. Lawler for a very long laugh, on lunar new year! (Allusion to a mysterious “Cindy Romer” merely adds to the fun.)