Since my last post on government spending increase (it’s actually decreasing) was hijacked by those focused on denying the impact of human activity on global climate, I thought it useful to recap the global land sea anomaly . It’s also useful to recall that on one side is Texas Governor Perry , and the other side the National Academy of Sciences . I think that dichotomy speaks volumes.
Here’s the land sea anomaly through January 2012.
Figure 1: The Monthly Global (land and ocean combined into an anomaly) Index (degrees C). Red line is centered 10 year moving average. Source: NOAA NCDC accessed 3 March 2012, and author’s calculations.
Just to remind folks of where the scientific profession stands. From
“Expert credibility in climate change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010):
… we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate
researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i)
97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the
field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and
scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are
substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
Two key graphs (shown in this post highlight that fact that among published (in peer reviewed journals) climate scientist, the overwhelming consensus is on that anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is occurring.
Note that UE denotes unconvinced; CE denotes convinced (by the thesis of anthropogenic climate change).
Update, 4pm: Reader CoRev insists I cherrypicked the data. Here is a 15 year window for the moving average.
Figure 2: The Monthly Global (land and ocean combined into an anomaly) Index (degrees C). Red line is centered 15 year moving average. Source: NOAA NCDC accessed 3 March 2012, and author’s calculations.
Update, 5:45pm: Reader CoRev insists I am still cherry-picking at 15 year moving average, after expanding from 10 year. So here’s the 30 year centered moving average.
Figure 3: The Monthly Global (land and ocean combined into an anomaly) Index (degrees C). Red line is centered 30 year moving average. Source: NOAA NCDC accessed 3 March 2012, and author’s calculations.
Word of warning — if CoRev wants a 130 year centered moving, the resulting line will be a point…
Update, noon 3/4: Reader Darren argues I should be happy with global warming if indeed it is happening (implying it isn’t), since it would mean warmer days in Madison, WI. Well, here’s some data on ice-cover on Lake Monona:
Days of ice cover on Lake Monona. Source: Climate Wisconsin.
Update, 1:45PM Pacific, 3/4: A refreshingly lucid and unhysterical take on the issue of anthropogenic climate change, and the economic response from William Nordhaus.