Here are some assessments of the economic impact on the UK economy, over the short (business cycle horizon) to long run.
The IMF’s assessment came out in mid-June, and hence is not included in the above table; here’s the IMF’s view.
These are detailed model-based assessments, expressed relative to a baseline. What are investment bank economists predicting in terms of actual levels, rather than deviations?
Deutsche Bank does not forecast an outright contraction, expressed on a year-on-year basis.
Source: “Special Report: Navigating in post-referendum Europe,” Deutsche Bank Research, June 23, 2016.
Going forward, keep your eyes on Simon Wren-Lewis’s Mainly Macro blog.
Update, 8:15AM Pacific: Reader Manfred cites Minford. Here’s a survey of the academic studies which places in context where Minford’s estimates stand.