To what extent could the weakness in February be a payback for the outsized growth in December and January. The three month average for nonfarm growth in Wisconsin looks solid. Also, do you have any thoughts on the average hourly earnings data? Looks like Wisconsin is seeing strong growth over the last year.
Well, I’m not impressed with the evolution of hourly earnings (I don’t have much to say on the idea of payback). Figure 1 shows CPI deflated average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers in Wisconsin as compared to the Nation.
Wisconsin wages are only 0.4 percent higher (log terms) than they were in January 2011. In contrast, for the Nation as a whole, they were 2.7 percent higher (log terms.
Figure 2 shows the log ratio of Wisconsin to US average hourly earnings.
Figure 1: Log ratio of average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers for Wisconsin to US (dark red). Horizontal gray line at value for 2011M01. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.