Trade Deficit Rising!

Since 2017Q1. By Mr. Trump’s own metric, we’re losing. But it’s a stoopid metric for evaluating “unfair”-ness.

From the last GDP release (which incorporates March trade release):

Figure 1: Net exports to GDP (blue), and net exports excluding petroleum products (red), as a ratio to GDP, SAAR. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Orange denotes 2017Q1-2018Q1. Source: BEA 2018Q1 second release, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Here’s a detail, in nominal dollar terms:


Figure 2: Net exports to GDP (blue), and net exports excluding petroleum products (red), both nominal, SAAR. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Orange denotes 2017Q1-2018Q1. Source: BEA 2018Q1 second release, NBER, and author’s calculations.

As noted in numerous instances (EconoFact, Steil/BI), trade deficits usually widen during periods of accelerated growth, for two reasons. First, greater economic activity results in higher consumption and investment, some of which involve imported goods and services. Second, faster growth relative to the rest of the world is usually associated with a currency appreciation which reduces price competitiveness.

Here I provide an additional way of looking at the relationship between growth and trade deficits — namely scatterplots for the periods from recession trough to peak.


Figure 3: Annualized q/q real GDP growth, % against nominal trade deficit as share of nominal GDP, % for recession trough-to-peak samples. Source: GDP 2016Q3 3rd release, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Notice the clear correlation — as growth accelerates, trade deficits widen.

These are (at least) two reasons why focusing on overall trade balances at business cycle frequencies is misguided (and focusing on bilateral balances even more misguided). Over longer spans, the current account — which for the US is mostly accounted for by the trade balance — is determined by private saving, public saving and investment trends, which are barely affected by sectoral tariff and nontariff barriers.

More on determinants of exports and imports at the aggregate level, here, and some discussion of how the collision of expansionary fiscal and tightening monetary policy is going to work against the goal of shrinking the trade deficit.

95 thoughts on “Trade Deficit Rising!

  1. Bob Flood

    So what can DT be thinking wrt tariffs/welfare and the US? I think he is looking at the extreme case – suppose the US puts on huge tariffs/quotas that SHUT DOWN US trade. The trade balance goes to zero – by definition. We are way worse off. The US is MUCH less open than many of our trading partners and the US is a huge customer for many countries and they will be worse off too. So it’s some kind of “Rocky” strategy – or maybe Rope a Dope – we take a beating but the other guy(s) are in even worse shape. So we win according to DT.

    Reply
    1. 2slugbaits

      Did you see this morning’s Jake Tapper’s interview with Larry Kudlow on CNN? Kudlow looked and acted drunk. I’m not be snarky here. He really did look drunk. His eyelids were all over the place, he rambled about NK, he swayed in the chair, he slurred his speech so badly I could barely understand him. The guy was either drunk or on something.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        He was either drunk or back on cocaine. Kudlow has always been a pathetic kiss-ass for all things right wing but now is he outdoing even himself. But as bad as he was – Navarro was worse.

        I loved it when Kudlow kept saying POTUS instead of President Trump. Who is this old clown trying to appeal to? Some 18 year old. Maybe his drug dealer is an 18 year old hipster.

        Reply
        1. 2slugbaits

          Yep. There are two videos. I think it’s the second video that’s really worrisome. Keeps referring to Trump as POTUS, gets confused about NK and Singapore, sleepy eyes. What a mess.

          Reply
        2. Moses Herzog

          @ pgl and @ 2slugbaits
          You two are relatively sharp. You know, I mean that spells a decent education and usually a decent number of years in life. We’re not asking for age disclosure here, but at least 30, maybe pushing 40. So we’ve seen some things in our lives yes?? You ever have one of those moments, where some person you don’t even like, possibly even detest (let’s not name any Jersey folks here, their state suffers enough bad odors) is in a social situation (speech, crowded bar, athletic event) and they are making such a complete and utter fool (and/or A$$) of themselves that even though you nearly hate them, you STILL find yourself squirming in your seat, grimacing, thinking to yourself in a twisted form of sympathy inside your head “shut up man!!! shut up!!! Please shut up!!! For the love of God no one wants to witness this utter fail!!!”?? Yeah?? At least maybe 4 times experience this before??

          Yup, there it is:
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4HCULGOxN8

          And why?? Why go on TV to make a fool of himself?? OK he had 4 drinks on an airplane. Phone in sick. Re-schedule. But voluntarily go out there and embarrass everyone, make everyone squirm in their seats?? WOW

          Reply
          1. pgl

            Over 10,000 comment many like this one:

            “Is this schmuck piss drunk or just republican? I can’t tell the difference anymore….”

          2. 2slugbaits

            I hadn’t seen that YouTube clip, but apparently I wasn’t the only one to think the guy was drunk. A lot of the YouTube comments said the same thing. My generous explanation would be that he was exhausted, but I still think it’s more likely that he was drunk.

          3. spencer

            Moses, do you know he back story on Kudlow and drugs.

            He was working for some wall street firm and was scheduled to speak to a group of Boston based professional investors at lunch.

            But he did not show up. One of the institutional reps went to his hotel and found Larry in his room passed out from an overdose of some drug. The firm sent him to a rehab program. Supposedly, it worked and he has been dry ever since.

          4. Moses Herzog

            @ Spencer
            That’s an engaging story. I guess the operative word there would be “supposedly”. The most shocking thing to me about Larry Kudlow is, he’s Jewish. My father lived to be 85 years old. One of the things my Dad told me that I will always remember is, that he had met and observed many Jews in his life, and he could count on one hand the number he would describe as “dumb” or even average intelligence. I’m thinking Larry Kudlow might make that extremely short and abbreviated list.

  2. Moses Herzog

    Some of the more astute academics and great minds of our time (Nobel Prize, etc) refer to this movement in the trade deficit as “The Kudlow Effect”. This phenomena of “The Kudlow Effect” can only occur when you hold very consistently to the same trade policy prescriptions over many many years. Also, you shouldn’t be the type that is so exhilarated by the sound of his own voice, that hearing your own voice gets you to climax quicker than a Kardashian sister. Additionally, the results from “The Kudlow Effect” can be amplified if the economic adviser strictly refrains from repeating “Dear Leader’s” words back to him like some loser flunky, otherwise, no one other than “Dear Leader” would have any regard to anything that economic adviser says.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAJxpmk01es

    There’s a rumor going around “the Beltway” of Washington DC, that Kudlow may be a big help in the North Korean negotiations. A 2nd cousin of Kudlow’s residing in North Korea with ties to Kim Jong-un some White House journalists have dubbed “Aunty Kudlow”. “Aunty Kudlow” is said to have very similar personality traits to Larry Kudlow in how she handles leadership positions.
    https://youtu.be/sjt29MuBF0E?t=12s

    Reply
    1. pgl

      What is this Kudlow effect? The only effect I know of is how National Review readers became incredibly stooooopid read Kudlow’s lectures on economics.

      Reply
      1. 2slugbaits

        Poor National Review readers. They get their economics from Larry Kudlow and Donald Luskin. Ugh. They probably watch Lou Dobbs and Rick Santelli as well.

        And then there’s poor PeakTrader who is so infatuated with Trump that he’s talked himself into believing Trump is really a free trader. He sees what he wants to see. Poor delusional fella.

        Reply
  3. Baffling

    Sotrump is reduced to sending relapsed addicts onto tv to defend his sophomoric behavior. What a classy administration.

    Reply
  4. pgl

    The Trumpsters are bashing Canada over milk from Wisconsin and upstate New York but this story argues that the Trump argument that Canada is being unfair to U.S. milk producers is complicated at best and more arguably weak:

    https://www.factcheck.org/2017/04/u-s-canada-dairy-dispute/

    The story’s central focus is that there is some oversupply of milk. One would think that if the US were as free market as it claims, milk prices in Brooklyn would be a lot lower than what I saw this morning at the local grocery store.

    Reply
    1. Hans

      PGL argument is pure propaganda.

      Milk tariffs on Oh Canadian milt is 5 cents per liter.

      https://hts.usitc.gov/current

      Canadian’s import tax on American milk is 274% of wholesale price.

      “Import Policies
      Agricultural Supply Management
      Canada uses supply-management systems to regulate its dairy, chicken, turkey, and egg industries. The regime involves production quotas, producer marketing boards to regulate price and supply, and tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for imports. Canada’s supply-management regime severely limits the ability of U.S. producers to increase exports to Canada above TRQ levels. Under the current system, U.S. imports above quota levels are subject to high tariffs (e.g., 245 percent for cheese, 298 percent for butter).”

      https://www.export.gov/article?id=Canada-Import-Tariffs

      Please visit = Fake Fact Check PGL.org

      Reply
      1. pgl

        Your source is an offshoot of the Commerce Department – led by Wilbur Ross. The news kept talking about a 300 percent tariff for butter but that is not exactly what this says:

        ‘Under the current system, U.S. imports above quota levels are subject to high tariffs (e.g., 245 percent for cheese, 298 percent for butter).’

        So we have a quota system not a 300% tariff. Of course once one hits the quota, the penalty goes sky high. Otherwise – the quota system is easily gamed. Bhagwati wrote a paper a long time ago that talks about quotas and the equivalent tariff.

        If you are truly interest in fact checking – please do the analysis and report back.

        Reply
  5. joseph

    “The Trumpsters are bashing Canada over milk from Wisconsin and upstate New York but this story argues that the Trump argument that Canada is being unfair to U.S. milk producers is complicated at best and more arguably weak”

    It’s not just weak. It is a completely one-sided view. Whether Trump knows it or not, the U.S. has quotas and high tariffs on dairy products that prevent all but a tiny percentage of imports from Canada and other countries.

    There is a dairy glut on both sides of the border so arguing about a trade balance is just stupid. At least Canada is doing the right thing. They are using government payments in an attempt to restrict the overproduction of milk. And the U.S. wants to export their surplus to Canada to upset their attempt to reduce oversupply.

    Meanwhile the U.S. is doing exactly the opposite, using subsides to encourage the domestic production of even more milk, increasing the glut and wanting to use Canada as their relief valve.

    Trump is a fascist nationalist. And a stupid one at that. What is scary is that he has supposedly intelligent economists like Navarro backing him up.

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      That Navarro signed book that Menzie has is looking more worthless by the day (although I suspect it has more sentimental value for him).

      Reply
  6. joseph

    PeakTrader: “Although, Trump’s comments are all over the place, his objective is to reduce trade barriers.”

    If Trump comments are all over the place, how can you possibly know what his objective is? Are you a mind reader?

    We only know what his official statement and the official statement of his economic adviser Navarro say: They are instituting 50% tariffs on steel and 25% tariffs on aluminum for “national security reasons.” This is completely the opposite of your claim that Trump wants to reduce trade barriers. He’s increasing trade barriers.

    And then he again contradicts himself by saying that the tariffs are in retaliation for Canada’s tariff on dairy. But he completely ignores the fact that the U.S. also has very high tariffs on dairy. If he were serious about reducing trade barriers, then he would have a serious discussion about reducing dairy tariffs on both sides. Instead he’s raising tariffs on steel and aluminum and keeping his tariffs on dairy. That’s not reducing trade barriers.

    So, no, your claim about Trump’s objective simply makes no sense given his actions which contradict it. And his words are simply an incoherent mishmash.

    This really is the stupidest — and thereby most dangerous — president in history.

    Reply
    1. PeakTrader

      Joseph, obviously, many people believe his objective is to raise trade barriers, create a trade war, and he’s unfair.

      I think, people, who believe that are the stupid ones. And, of course, they are fearful too.

      Also, I think, Trump is open minded and flexible. And, he often says things he doesn’t really mean, because that’s what the populace, press, or politicians wants to hear.

      Reply
      1. baffling

        “And, he often says things he doesn’t really mean”
        quit with the alternative facts description. you mean he lies. and that makes you happy. just like rick stryker.

        Reply
    2. pgl

      “But he completely ignores the fact that the U.S. also has very high tariffs on dairy. ”
      Believe it – this may be one reason the price of milk is so high in my neighborhood. Of course Kudlow does not know that as he does not drink milk – just booze!

      Reply
      1. CoRev

        Pgl, the price of your milk is due to tariffs? How desperate are you? Have you ever heard of the Federal Dairy Price Support Program?

        Reply
        1. pgl

          You remind me of Peter Navarro. Rather than addressing the economic issues, you go on some stupid tirade. BTW – I did not say the price of my milk is from tariffs. My milk comes from New York where there are no formal tariffs but a whole lot of other ways to limit competition.

          So CoRev – how stooopid are you? Never mind that – you comments speak for themselves.

          Reply
      2. CoRev

        Pgl, as I asked, how desperate are you? Your comment: ” “But he completely ignores the fact that thU.S. also has very high tariffs on dairy.
        Believe it – this may be one reason the price of milk is so high in my neighborhood….” Yup! That meaning is clear. You think tariffs are responsible for your milk prices.

        Quite the economist who would then say: “BTW – I did not say the price of my milk is from tariffs. (That’s exactly what you did say.) milk comes from New York where there are no formal tariffs but a whole lot of other ways to limit competition.” Isn’t NY and NYC run by liberal Democrats? Let’s blame Trump for your milk prices, and a whole lot of other ways to limit competition.

        Not only caught lying again, but caught making desperate and crazy statements. But here is little else expected from you. Oh, I almost the thousands of unsupported and angry claims. Oh, I almost forgot the weak attempts at ridicule. Oh, I almost forgot…

        Reply
        1. pgl

          Did you wake up babbling nonsense? And you can’t stop. Try making an actual coherent comment for once in your sad little life.

          Reply
  7. Not Trampis

    the link between economic growth and a trade deficit is learnt very early when one studies economics. A pity no-one has at the Whitehouse. Perhaps it should be renamed the Chaos house.

    Reply
  8. Moses Herzog

    Did anyone else notice our boy “Princeton” Krapits was quoted about oil on a relatively popular Real Estate and Economics blog?? There’s another sign the blogging world is slowly going to hell. Does McBride know that Baker Hughes quotes the same damned number?? Nobody wants to do anything correctly anymore, just find anyone to do anything halfway. If the dumbsh*t knew what he was doing he wouldn’t run around trying to put links up on others’ blogs, people would be going directly to his blog—which they don’t. Or as I said, he wouldn’t go around pan-handling off the hardwork of other bloggers’ sites.

    Reply
  9. PeakTrader

    I guess, Canada wants to keep its 270% tariff on milk.

    And, why would E.U. politicians lower their trade barriers more than the U.S. just to level the playing field?

    Reply
    1. pgl

      No source for your latest spin? At least Hans tried – albeit his “source” was part of the Wilbur Ross led Commerce Department.

      Peaky – we know you are a mouth piece for Team Trump and as such lie routinely. But no attempt at a source at all? Lord man – Wilbur Ross should fire you today given your utter incompetence.

      Reply
  10. Moses Herzog

    @ Menzie
    I want some kind of personal assurance that Robert De Niro has been de facto banned from this blog.

    Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        Hope you know that was my idea of a joke.

        Yeah, you know, pgl, I would be like the creepers kind of fanboy. “Hey Bobby, what was it like working with Famke janssen???” “Hey Bobby, what was it like working with Natascha McElhone??” “Bobby, what was it like working with Amy Brenneman??” “Hey Bobby, what other scintillatingly hot chicks did you work with??” “Hey Bobby, what was it like working with Marlon Brando in ‘The Score’ ??” “Hey Bobby, wanna go out for some pizza and beers??” “Yo Bobby, you know you’re one of my Top 5 actors of all time??……” “Yo, Bobby, we’re like ‘friends’ now right??—I can tell everyone we’re like ‘friends’ now right???” “Yo Bobby……….”

        Reply
  11. CoRev

    Trump’s later tweet: “…$800 Billion Trade Deficit…And add to that the fact that the U.S. pays close to the entire cost of NATO-protecting many of these same countries that rip us off on Trade (they pay only a fraction of the cost-and laugh!). The European Union had a $151 Billion Surplus-should pay much more for Military!”

    And he brought in Merkel’s government: ….Germany pays 1% (slowly) of GDP towards NATO, while we pay 4% of a MUCH larger GDP. Does anybody believe that makes sense? We protect Europe (which is good) at great financial loss, and then get unfairly clobbered on Trade. Change is coming!”

    I wonder what agreement was made between Trump and Trudeau, and who rolled Trudeau? We’ll know eventually.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Trump tweeted another bald faced lie and you fell for it. C’mon man – check the facts as in here:

      http://www.bea.gov

      Table 4.1. Foreign Transactions in the National Income and Product Accounts

      In 2017, the current account deficit was $485 billion not $800 billion. I guess you think this is a rounding error. DUH!

      Reply
      1. 2slugbaits

        pgl It’s pretty clear that CoRev and Trump are only looking at the goods trade balance and not the total trade balance. Why they are only looking at goods is beyond me. I guess they’re channeling their inner mercantilist.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          They are doing Trump’s bidding which means cook up some lie and repeat over and over. I just heard some analyst do this on a state by state level. It seems 38 states are running trade surpluses with Canada. But I’m sure CoRev will find the other 12 states and claim that is what really matters. Some many lies, so little time.

          Reply
    2. 2slugbaits

      CoRev We do not spend 4% of our GDP on NATO. Not even close. That 4% number represents the total defense budget, which covers a helluva a lot more than just NATO. The days of the old Seventh Imperial Army are long gone. Today we’re talking about the 173rd Airborne Brigade (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/173rd_Airborne_Brigade_Combat_Team) in the Baltics and a few rotational brigades guarding the ski slopes and Oktoberfest. The Fulda Gap scenario is ancient history. And don’t forget that our NATO partners provide real estate, which is militarily valuable but not included in their defense budgets.

      Reply
        1. 2slugbaits

          If you mean the 2% of GDP “promise”, then yes, some of them are failing to meet that target. Actually, the 2014 NATO Wales Summit refers to the 2% figure as a “guideline” and not a promise.
          https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm
          Some countries are running above 2% of GDP. And we certainly don’t spend 2% of our GDP on NATO.

          And you might want to ask yourself just who is funding our 4% defense budgets if we’re running large trade deficits and some of our allies are running trade surpluses. See my question below directed at you and PeakTrader.

          Also, a little history lesson. If the US wants to be the hegemon of the western world, then we might want to listen to Thucydides (he’s quite popular these days) and take caution from the Delian League experience:
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delian_League
          The more other political entities contribute, the more they will tend to resist dominance by the hegemon.

          Reply
      1. baffling

        in a previous post, corev provided false gdp numbers to support his argument. now corev provides false numbers on nato spending. 2slugs had to waste his time twice correcting you. hey corev, why must you continue to use false numbers when trying to make an argument? the trump effect seems to be rubbing off on you. your lies don’t seem to bother you anymore.

        Reply
      2. pgl

        CoRev does lie about a lot of things. And when I focus on one of his lies – he whines that I have focused on just one thing. So many lies, so little time.

        Reply
  12. joseph

    PeakTrader: “I guess, Canada wants to keep its 270% tariff on milk.”

    You keep mentioning this but also keep ignoring the fact that the U.S. also has quotas, tariffs and subsidies for dairy products. I wouldn’t doubt that Trump is ignorant of this fact, but I’m sure “Special Place In Hell” Navarro knows it. Trump is just playing to the ignorant rubes and Navarro is helping him do it.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Check out Hans attempt to fact check. Wilbur Ross is firing PeakStupidity today as Hans does a much better job at spreading lies!

      Reply
      1. baffling

        but peak, why do you continue to use false numbers to make your arguments. it is pathetic. people like you and trump are helping to create a world where lying is an acceptable offensive and defensive game plan. it really is degrading to a civilized society.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          Because he thinks this will convince Wilbur Ross to continue to employ him. Oh my – I bet Peako goes off the deep end tonight once Wilbur cans him by close of business.

          Reply
      2. pgl

        And you have shown that clearly? Not quite bucko. I’m sorry that Wilbur Ross is going to fire you by close of business today.

        Reply
  13. 2slugbaits

    Simple yes/no question for PeakTrader and CoRev: Do you think our chronic trade deficits are primarily due to other countries imposing tariffs and trade barriers on US exports? You should be able to answer that with a simple “yes” or “no.”

    Reply
    1. baffling

      don’t ask corev to answer simple questions. he comes up with some of the craziest excuses for not answering simple questions.

      Reply
    2. CoRev

      No! I already mentioned in the other thread that multinational make trade/marketing agreements that enhance the corporation. Is that tax and business environment due to poor US practices? Yes. This is especially clear by Obama’s anti-business comments and policies.

      Reply
      1. 2slugbaits

        CoRev This is an econ blog. With that answer you just flunked international econ 101. My advice is to go back to Menzie’s post at the very top and read his last three links. Chronic trade deficits are mainly a macroeconomic phenomenon.

        Reply
        1. CoRev

          2slugs, didn’t expect you to understand the actual impact of policies. American businessmen do, as do the voters. See you in Nov.

          Reply
          1. 2slugbaits

            CoRev This is an econ blog. People who comment here are expected to have some understanding of actual economics. And by economics I don’t mean BS sessions down at the local watering hole. And it sure doesn’t mean listening to ignorant blowhards on Fox. If you don’t understand why chronic trade deficits are mainly a macroeconomic phenomenon, then you should either not comment or else commit yourself to reading an econ book on trade.
            Maybe American business men & women along with American voters would make better decisions if they took the time to actually learn some economics instead of relying upon gut instinct and intuition. There’s a reason why economics is a formal discipline; it’s because you have to first unlearn everything gut instinct and intuition tells you. Chronic trade deficits are not the result of some supposed anti-business attitude.

          2. CoRev

            2slugs, it is clear that we conservatives have different beliefs, than you liberals. For all the pontificating on economics, you forget that the real implementation of policy happens at the daily business micro-level. Nearly all trade policy is implemented in typically bi-lateral business deals. Economics is only one view of the world, and a minority view at that. Whether that minority views the world through two prisms does not actually effect the world, only the minority’s colorations of it.

            Policy and its tools, trade barriers, trade agreements etc, are frame works for these micro-level transactions to work within. If you think macro economics works without micro implementations, you just don’t understand the real world and rely too much on theory. Aggregating the micro-level transactions to measure their national (and larger) impacts of GDP, employment, trade, etc. is important, but your economics filter seems to make you think chronic trade deficits are mainly a macroeconomic phenomenon, a measurement, of trade policy is more than it is in the real world. Just because they are separated in economics theory and study does not separate them in reality.

            You have the trail (macro measure) upon which the economic dog is traveling is separate from the many steps (micro-level transactions) needed to travel it.

            Maybe liberal economists would make better policy recommendations if they better understood where and how those recommendations impacted daily business decisions and transactions. Government level decisions are not fundamentally better than business decisions they only have wider impact.

            Your view is a minor way of seeing the world, and definitely not the best or only way to view the world. If this econ blog stuck solely to economics then your position might have merit, but it does not. You just don’t get that.

            BTW, do you think Menzie will talk about the N. Korea/US agreement, or ignore it as he has the latest economic results.

          3. 2slugbaits

            CoRev Sorry, but this isn’t a conservative versus liberal thing. Even conservative economists understand that chronic trade deficits are primarily macroeconomic phenomenon. But there is a difference between an informed viewpoint and a gut instinct viewpoint. Those micro decisions you talk about have to operate within certain macro economic facts, such as exchange rates, savings & investment identities, the necessity to spend in dollars if collect revenue in dollars, etc. The businessman sees a blinkered world.

            As to the NK/US agreement, I didn’t see much of any substance. It was a photo op and meet & greet thing. Trump seems to have given away the store and gotten almost nothing in return except a promise from NK to think about doing something that its never going to do. In return for an empty promise we agreed to shut down war games with South Korea. And here we saw Trump stab our ally in the back. President Moon was blindsided by this because South Korea was not given advance notice. Trump just went off script and winged it. The markets don’t seem to think too much of it. Small gains in Asia, but small losses in Europe after analysts had a chance to digest the agreement. And the US markets have been mixed or moving sideways. All in all, the summit was a big nothingburger.

          4. CoRev

            2slugs: “The businessman sees a blinkered world.” Absolutely my point, and the blinkers are the existent policies resulting in regulations, laws and trade barriers. All are restrictive.

            Why did you ignore my comment that macro-level measurements are the sums of the micro-level transactions. You’ve used at least two terms for macro-level measurements. facts and phenomenon, while I think macroeconomic conditions and measurements are probably closer to what you mean.

            I see you have included your personal opinion on the US/NK Agreement. Without references to your points they don’t exist except in your own mind.

            As far as the Moon being blind sided, my impression is directly opposite of yours. It wa Moon who canceled the recent Max Thunder 18 Exercise in deference to NK’s demand/wish. It was NK that called the exercise provocative, which Trump decided to repeat in his new conference announcing the cessation. You seem to put more importance on a unilateral action than it deserves. They can be re-implemented at any time.

          5. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: Curious, are you saying macro is just big micro? Aggregate micro decisions as if they were operating in isolation, and you have the total macro dyanmics?

          6. CoRev

            Menzie, NO! What i am trying to say is they don’t stand alone, You cant have macro measures without micro actions/transactions. Macro is mostly 1) performance measurements – GDP, import/export values, standard of living, employment etc. 2) framework- policy, regulations, agreements, laws etc. and 3) the impacts of changes in the framework issues.

            I know that’s not a text book definition, but its the best i can do on short notice.

          7. baffling

            menzie, corev will simply dance around direct questions when he knows he is in the wrong. please do not ask him to answer simple questions.

          8. 2slugbaits

            CoRev I see you have included your personal opinion on the US/NK Agreement. Without references to your points they don’t exist except in your own mind.

            Well, I’ve read the text. Any document that tells us that Kim reaffirmshis firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” strikes me as a complete waste of hot air:

            Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

            So not only is Kim affirming his commitment, he is reaffirming it. Reaffirming it??? So there’s nothing new here. He’s just saying what he’s said before. How else do you interpret “reaffirming” as opposed to “affirming”?

            And yes, President Moon was blindsided. Not only that, but SECDEF Mattis was blindsided because canceling the upcoming military exercises was not in the jointly approved agreement between South Korea and the Pentagon.

            https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/national/trumps-vow-to-end-us-south-korea-drills-catches-pentagon-off-guard/ar-AAyy8oN

            Only hours before the summit, Mattis told Pentagon reporters that, as far as he knew, the issue of US troops in South Korea would not be part of any discussion in Singapore.

          9. CoRev

            2slugs, all you have provided is conjecture interviews. Mattisd did not say he was surprised b y the cancelling of future exercises. He did say troop levels was not on the agenda.

          10. 2slugbaits

            CoRev Read the link. Read what the Pentagon spokesperson said. Read what the South Korean government said. Face facts. Your Super Hero went off script and just winged it because…well, you know. He has the “touch”, the “feel”, it’s what he does. What a doofus.

      2. pgl

        It is all Obama’s fault? Of course you were not able to identify any of his alleged anti-business policies? Babble on!

        Reply
  14. Alan Goldhammer

    When Trump, Kudlow and the others end the US sugar quota system I will start to pay some serious attention to trade deficits and tariffs.

    Reply
          1. pgl

            Even you admitted the milk market here is not your textbook free market competitive story – which undermines everything PeakStupidity says on this issue. I declare this one game, set, and match. Thanks for your unforced error!

    1. baffling

      perhaps that is true. then again, drugs and alcohol can lead to heart attacks as well. his behavior sunday sure was strange, even by conservatives standards.

      Reply
  15. pgl

    A history lesson on Hurricane Katrina for CoRev:

    https://www.history.com/topics/hurricane-katrina

    Note the date – August 29, 2005. CoRev blames this on Obama. Now if Obama was President during 2005, this makes sense. We can also blame Obama for the Great Recession, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the general financial market melt down. And while we are at it for the Falcons losing Michael Vick for abusing dogs.

    Yes in CoRev’s world, everything is Obama’s fault!

    Reply
    1. CoRev

      It surly was Obama’s fault. Your history is clearly wrong and/or written by liberals as shown by your examples. Your world is just wrong!

      Reply
      1. baffling

        you actually believe such garbage corev. and this is why any discussion with you is simply stoooopid. you will never acknowledge reality when it distorts your world view.

        Reply

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