The IMF WEO on Brexit

What did the UK just dodge (temporarily)?

The IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook has an interesting box on the subject of Brexit impacts. They analyzed several scenarios in addition to the baseline.

The simulations are shown below:

Notice that not only do each of the “no deal” scenarios imply recessions (relative to baseline), the current baseline is below the April 2016 (pre-Brexit referendum) baseline. In other words, the uncertainty associated with Brexit has already depressed economic activity in the UK.

More on estimates of the Brexit costs, see here (scenarios assuming orderly withdrawal).

21 thoughts on “The IMF WEO on Brexit

    1. Moses Herzog

      Heh, this is one where I have to say, again. I am on the Brexiters side. I am on the “Leave” side. You can make whatever assessments of my IQ there you deem on target. However, I will say, in recent years, roughly post-Reagan, but really you could argue as far back as Nixon, your assessment of American voters intelligence is relatively accurate.

      Reply
  1. Moses Herzog

    Roughly page 28–30 of the IMF report for anyone wanting to go to the document itself. See, CoRev, we’re willing to help the developmentally disabled here, we’re not even going to ask you to skim read anymore.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Orjbwv8H9zM

    Menzie trying to put me in conflict with the Aphrodite of economics. The nerve of some people. Don’t tase me Bro!!!!

    Reply
  2. Moses Herzog

    OMG, she referenced John Taylor’s name in her report on the breakdown of Brexit Scenario B!!! I feel ill now. Can anyone mix some Pepto Bismol with some bourbon for me?!?!?!?! Why do all the girls I cherish treat me this way?? John Taylor’s name, and her name, in the same report!!!!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itM_bzTFP68

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      ….. Like they ever don’t, the lobbyists have bottles on tap there 24/7/365. Why do you think Boehner and that other worthless bastard (from Montana?? Wyoming?? forgot his name) gave half their Senate floor speeches drunk?? I don’t give a ___ if they drink if they’re functional, just admit it and move on. In Boehner’s and his’ case they’re just as worthless sober as they are drunk, what’s the difference?? Useless is still useless.

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        Max Baucus was the SOB I couldn’t remember. Had one hand held out to the bribing lobbyists on every bill he ever passed with the other hand on a large bottle of booze. I can forgive the latter, not the former.

        Reply
  3. Moses Herzog

    They say she’s really good at selling clothes. What’s the problem with her being head of the World Bank???
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/12/ivanka-trump-world-bank-donald-trump-report

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBmMU_iwe6U

    Girls….. keep fighting, one day this tyranny of men will end. You have the right damn it.

    And also remember girls, presenting a united front against the true enemy, is very important. ALL women know this and follow it in their actions and in their hearts:
    https://youtu.be/epXSh2GesdU?t=48

    “Ok, who’s up for cupcakes with heavy frosting and a marathon viewing of ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’?? ‘Game of Thrones’?? Then let’s uuuuuuhh, let’s uuuuuuuhh, let’s do a roundtable discussion!!!! Hahahahahaha!!!!!!! I’ve seen my husband and I’ve seen my brother!!!! Hahahahahahaa!!!!”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EJu37yTZQw

    Reply
  4. Moses Herzog

    If you live in a major city, or even a medium sized city, chances are you can get this for free at your local library. If you’re a parent with kids nearing college age, a kid maybe inside of a year of choosing where to get your post-high school education, or you’re ex-military feeling a little confused what to do next, you NEED to watch this film. It could save you from going down a path that leads to a LIVING HELL:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S64WANCgMek

    People used to say “Thanks Obama!!!” to blame everything bad under the sun on a black President. If you attended any of these for-profit “colleges” with nothing to show for it but thousands of dollars of debt and a ruined credit record, you should say “Thanks Betsy DeVos!!!”

    Reply
  5. Moses Herzog

    What was the Saturday Night Live joke?? Xi Jinping and donald trump are “brothers from another mother”??

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/us/politics/trump-immigration-stephen-miller.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/technology/china-surveillance-artificial-intelligence-racial-profiling.html

    Although it appears when comparing Xi Jinping and donald trump, the “brothers from another mother”, Xi got the effective genes and donald trump got the impotent genes. Sometimes there’s a large gap in intelligence between “brothers from another mother”, other times, it’s about the same intelligence level:
    https://youtu.be/RdSmokR0Enk?t=68

    Reply
  6. Moses Herzog

    It’s interesting to see that John Podesta and Neera Tanden are still sucking the scum and grime off Hillary Clinton’s boots and her Corporate controllers’ boots. They didn’t get those 2016 White House Jobs by groveling at loser Hillary’s feet, so now they see it their personal duty to attack Democrats. I’d be careful if I was Podesta and Tanden. Sometimes people trying to ignite a fire get some gasoline on themselves and bad things happen:
    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5839898-Bernie-Sanders-Letter-Accusing-CAP-of.html

    If I was Bernie I’d write the letter less diplomatically. It would go something……like….. this…….
    “Dearest c*nts John Podesta and Neera Tanden, if you and the folks at ‘Center for American Progress’ want a F’ing job working for foreign governments, insurance companies, TBTF banks, Wal Mart and defense contractors—-why don’t you just F’ing ask them DIRECTLY??? Signed, Bernie”

    Hillary, you’re a loser as a national campaigner, you’ll ALWAYS be a loser as a national campaigner, call your boot-licking mongrels Podesta and Tanden off the dog hunt and grow up. Or can you EVER???
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/us/politics/bernie-sanders-2020-candidates.html

    Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      Mose,

      Funny how Bernie criticized Tanden for dumping on Ellizabeth Warren over the Native American issue. Thought you would have been in there with Tanden on that one. Or have forgiven Warren now that she has more publicly and effusively apologized?

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Barkley Rosser
        I’m not against the criticism in and of itself, it’s the seedy way in which it was done—-with funding sources of “Center for American Progress” that makes the true intention of the criticism highly questionable as to its altruism. That’s the absolute nicest way I can put it, in fact I nearly upchucked typing that last sentence. Warren’s apology is too little too late—which is why she is having funding issues now, that, and the fact she’s only a slightly better campaigner than Hillary (which is a near insult). She has made….. decent enough apologies…. more like a 1/2 or 3/4 apology. Would I consider voting for her after the too little too late apologies?? I would consider voting for her, but against Bernie and some other decent candidates such as Klobuchar, Andrew Yang etc?? The chances I check the box by her name is small. Which is sad. There aren’t many women I would vote for for President. If you had asked me if I would have voted for her for President before I became aware of her job application embellishments related to racial makeup, back in say 2011?? You would have had a hard time finding a bigger fan of Elizabeth Warren back in 2011 than I was at that time.

        BTW (for transparency purposes) I am not that sensitive to racial issues in general. I am not trying to present myself as a saint on race topics. I tell racial jokes in private settings with friends intermittently. It’s the LYING and the CONTINUING OF THE LIE a’ la Richard Nixon, that grates on me to no end. That’s what’s gonna stop me from checking the box by Warren’s name.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          Mose,

          Part of Warren’s financing problem is that he is not taking any ceop fundding. Personally I think she makees a better senator than a presidential candidate.

          I am not as much of a fan of Bernie as you are, but Tanden’s outfit seems to have stepped over several lines in their dumping on him. Otherwise I think getting too caught up in 2016 wars between Bernie and Hillary is a waste of time all the way around. While we are losing count of the ridiculous number of Dem candidates, HRC will not be among them this time. She is done.

          Reply
    2. JL

      Mose, Bernie Sanders is liked by the crowd, but he will get no support from the Clinton gang. Sanders is really intelligent, but no match for Trump’s tactics.
      Yes, Podesta et al. are Clinton weasels. This does not change the fact that the Clintons call the shots in their party.

      My bet is Trump will win, though I do not like 70-year old men with blond-colored hair and a supermodel with silicon breasts by their side.

      Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      I can’t decide which reminds me of eternal loser Michael “Heckuva Job” Brown more, the throwing of the paper towels by donald trump to hurricane victims or the appointment of Stephen Moore to the Fed?? You know that bad imitation of a human being works radio in Denver Colorado now?? Wonder which Republican hack owns that radio station or if the owner of that radio station cares how many people died or near starved to death under Brown’s FEMA watch??
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKtuTV3hNdM

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12ZJYel91kk

      I guess it’s not surprising “Brownie” now earns his pay flapping his lips. That’s as near to his competency level as exists on planet Earth.

      Reply
  7. pgl

    PeakLiar the other day noted that Bank of America was doing well and gave its employees a raise. That’s nice but when PeakLiar told us that the workers got that pay raised because of Donald John Trump, we all laughed. So why isn’t PeakLiar noting the enormous pay cuts at Goldman Sachs?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/apr/15/markets-us-china-trade-talks-ftse-sterling-business-live?page=with:block-5cb47a298f08ce46f07efb23#block-5cb47a298f08ce46f07efb23

    Oh right – because they are blaming the trade wars and the Trump shut down. So of course PeakLiar has gone silent on this!

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      Don’t forget Wells Fargo losing its 2nd CEO in a very short time-frame. I believe not long after his congressional testimony (I may be get that flubbed up in my head). Though making up fictional accounts to generate fee revenues can hardly blamed on donald trump—at least not in this specific case anyway.

      Reply

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