Life Moves Fast: “Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019?”

56% at noon Pacific today, according to PredictIt:

That is, articles of impeachment approved within the next three months.

98 thoughts on “Life Moves Fast: “Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019?”

  1. Barkley Rosser

    Good chance of a House vote to impeach by then, but near zero of final resolution in the Senate, still likely to go Trump’s way, although now not quite as certain. But as long as Hannity holds on lying for him, probably.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Barkley Rosser: Agreed. But we just don’t know what’s in those other transcripts. Mebbe a “who will rid me of this troublesome Saudi journalist with permanent residency in the US”?

      1. pgl

        The immediate issue is how to force these other transcripts as well as other evidence to be given to Congress.

      2. Barkley Rosser


        If indeed there is something like that in there, that might sway even the Senate and the Hannity bubble crowd. Personally, I am utterly disgusted by MbS and Trump’s relationship with him. Have on several occasions here noted that I know people personally MbS has done bad things to.

  2. Willie

    He may get impeached. The Senate will acquit. My concern is how fast they have to act. I do not know. If they stall, it becomes an election year ploy and a way to duck the issue. Moscow Mitch is awfully good at rigging things to his political advantage. He is a party hack who does not appear to care a lick about what the country needs if it is not a way to score points for his tribe.

  3. Moses Herzog

    Giuliani wants everyone to know that Pompeo knew what was going on in Ukraine. This is interesting, because most people paying attention right now think that in the last few weeks Pompeo has become the “teacher’s pet” of the White House, or donald trump’s favorite house pet, or however you wanna label it when you suck up to the boss 24/7.

    I guess Moscow Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, and the rest of the Republicans no longer care about European Theater security, because in most experts’ eyes, keeping friendly with East European nations (such as Ukraine) and making sure those East European nations don’t implode is an important part of keeping Germany, France, England etc secure from Russian inroads. When you withdraw American funds you raise the odds that those empty Ukraine coffers will be filled in by Putin, and then they have puppet regimes, which has been an ongoing problem in Ukraine and other countries (even Greece) when America decides to look the other way.

    One thing the more perceptive spectators may notice here—Giuliani’s jaw muscles are just as active as ever—but the muscles of his face that control grinning and smiling have become more “inactive” as of late—and there’s more a “sense of gravity” in those corrupt eyeballs of his then we saw when Giuliani was spending his free time trashing Michael Cohen for a living.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      This is more complicated than it looks, although I mostly agree with you.

      However, in fact several of those GOP senators now spouting off for Trump do care about Eastern Europe and Ukraine in particular. Probably the most important and influential is indeed Lindsey Graham, who apparently retains shards of his old frienship with McCain. It should be noted that on 9/11, the Trump admin quietly released that military aid to Ukraine, and this seems to be without Zelensky and crew doing anythng more than just meet with Giuliani after the phone call. No investigations of any of the Bidens, much less finding servers full of Hillary Clinton emails. From what I have read it was behind the scenes pressure from GOP senators that led to this, especially Graham. So they may be defending Trump to save their own behinds, but they know what a pile of garbage he was pushing, and they finally got him off it.

  4. Not Trampis

    I can take an overweight intellectually challenged, incoherent braggart as a leader but not one so brazenly immoral.

    If the Democrats cannot make p0litical capital out of this then they deserve to lose big time of course so wil the USA.

    I am so glad i live down under

  5. Bruce Hall

    Interesting. I just had an hour and a half discussion with a young Canadian woman with a Masters in economics from a Canadian university who works as a manager in a large non-profit for evaluating prospective grants for HIV research and local implementation in third world countries. This augments the efforts began by President Bush in 2003. What was interesting is that the name of Donald Trump didn’t once arise as an issue. Rather it was the intrenched bureaucracy in governments (all around the world, not just the U.S.) that hinder progress.

    I’m guessing, with her background, that she would claim to be a liberal, but her fight does include a version of “drain the swamp”. Fiefdoms everywhere protecting their ass(ets) at the expense of common welfare. If you want to argue corruption for talking with foreign officials, well, you’d have to discharge most of Washington’s top bureaucrats and politicians. But let’s go ahead and cheer for more of the same.

    And, yes, Barkley, you analysis is correct. This is kabuki.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Bruce Hall: Lots of civil servants talk to foreign officials. But I would like to know of *your personal experience* seeing a US civil servant (not a political appointee like say Pompeo) ask for “a favor” in return for granting a contract, say… (and when exactly did you work in Washington, DC, and in what capacity? – I am curious).

      1. Bruce Hall

        Menzie, after reading the “incriminating” transcript, I didn’t find any “there” there. Was it Trump’s statement that any information related to misconduct?
        “The other thing, there’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that, so whatever you can do with the attorney general would be great,” Trump said. “Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution, so if you can look into it … It sounds horrible to me.”

        Perhaps your reading skills are better than mine, but I didn’t read a threat in there or even a quid pro quo. Enlighten me.

        As for bureaucrats, I’ve seen plenty in business to understand that they will optimize their particular fiefdom regardless of how badly it sub-optimizes the entire organization. But if you need an example, go to your local DMV.

        It’s the nature of organizations and the federal government is the largest of them all.

          1. Bruce Hall

            Menzie, that’s the crime? Come on. Asking someone in a position to investigate potential corruption is corruption? I must be Alice and this must be Wonderland.

            Tell me, you have never once used the expressions “I’d appreciate it if you could…” or “I’d appreciate it if you could do me a favor” without the expectation that you were going to do a favor in return? That’s pretty damned weak argument against Trump, but if you’re looking for dirt hard enough, your mind will find it even if it’s not really there. Perhaps Trump needs to have a lawyer and linguist clear ever utterance so that that imaginary ethics police don’t go ballistic.

            Still no comment about Biden or the ABC video showing an attempt to question Biden about his involvement in his son getting contracts in Ukraine and China? Yes, blame the person who asks questions. Perhaps Biden is innocent of all accusation, but, golly gee, there were accusations (and not anonymous).

          2. 2slugbaits

            Bruce Hall Asking someone in a position to investigate potential corruption is corruption?

            When it’s a political rival, yes. It is illegal. You’re fortunate that you never worked in the federal government. If you were a contracting officer and told a vendor that you were taking a second look at awarding a contract, but in the meantime you sure would appreciate it if that vendor’s HR department would take a look at your son’s resume, I’m pretty sure you’d be hauled out in handcuffs. So Trump sends several people to Ukraine to pressure them into opening up an investigation, then suspends a $400M delivery, then says he would be happy to deliver that $400M, but it sure would be nice if Ukraine could “do us a favor though” by looking into that Biden thing and that Clinton server story. Yes, of course. It was all because “Honest Don” was concerned about corruption in Ukraine. Right. Sure. Remember that the next time somebody asks you for a favor and remarks what a shame it would be if that nice house of yours caught fire.

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ Bruce Hall
            Maybe due to an extreme lack of intelligence, you don’t realize it’s NOT just asking anyone for a favor. There have been ZILLIONS of areas of corruption (mostly instigated by donald trump himself, but OTHERS) that donald trump has shown ZERO concern about—and has done nothing to investigate. Now, donald trump is using the office of the Presidency by means of the threat of withholding of funds, to investigate who else???—his (largely perceived) main and most probable opponent for the 2020 election. It’s not a random asking of a favor, it’s a blatant threat to withhold $400million of funds to Ukraine if some dirt isn’t manufactured, and manufactured pronto.

        1. baffling

          “But if you need an example, go to your local DMV.”
          in texas, dmv operations have been turned over to private contractors.

        2. pgl

          “Perhaps your reading skills are better than mine”.

          My retarded dog has better reading skills than you do. But nice try Trump sycophant!

    2. Barkley Rosser


      Everybody agrees that there are swamps in most governments involving both political appointees and entrenched bureaucrats. Trump came to power claiming he would “drain the swamp,” but a lot of his political appointees have had to leave office for being some of the most corrupt we have ever seen. I think one would have to go back to the Harding or Grant administrations to find so many corrupt political appointees, and we are talking screamingly corrupt, quite aside from the conduct of Trump himself, almost certainly the only president in US history to have violated the emoluments clause of the Constitution and to have done so many times.

      As for cleaning out swampy bureaucrats, Trump seems to have mostly gone after EPA employees so that he can overturn environmental regs to please corporate backers, which looks like making the swamp worse, not better, as well as going after economists in the USDA who do studies finding things he does not like. Really, this has been quite a spectacle.

      Can you name a single place where Trump’s supposed swamp draining has actually done so or resulted in anything beneficial? Or do you really support dumping more pollution into rivers? Is that how we “drain” swamps, put all the muck into the rivers and drinking water?

      1. 2slugbaits

        Barkley Rosser Everybody agrees that there are swamps in most governments involving both political appointees and entrenched bureaucrats.

        Well, I don’t entirely agree. The “swamp” part of DC is with private sector agents trying to extract rents. Bureaucracies have their problems, but one thing they are not is a “swamp.” Contrary to what most people believe, the problem with bureaucracies isn’t that they don’t do anything, it’s that they try to do too much. The successful bureaucrat builds an empire by expanding the agency’s scope. Bureaucratic turf wars should not be confused with alligators in the swamp. For one thing, bureaucracies follow the letter of the law to every jot and tittle. That’s why people find it so frustrating to deal with bureaucracies. Trump and alligator swamps try to get around the law. Politicians like to talk about cutting red tape, but at the end of the day it’s that red tape that is the ultimate check on Napoleon wannabees like Trump. A well functioning bureaucracy recognizes its institutional role and jealously guards its independence and permanence. Bureaucrats swear allegiance to the Constitution and not to the president. That’s what separates us from cult of personality regimes like Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. That’s what a lot of Trump supporters don’t understand.

        1. ilsm


          There is a swamp of hold overs in non military “intelligence” community. Sustaining that swamp is partisan press foist innuendo as news.

          I do not see either side having the best interests of constitutional government in the US.

          Phony impeachment and over 3 years of torpedoing the Trump organization is the graver of the two evils. No one is doing the republic’s business.

          Twains observation comes to mind: “It is not what you don’t know, it is what you know that ain’t so”.

          As well as H L Mencken’s “monkey cage”.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            And while Obama was president he and members of his admin were subjected to endless investigations by GOP led Cogressional committees, all of which in the end found a big fat nothing, with nobody from that admin ever arrested or indicted of anything. Remember the millions of dollars and huge amounts of time spent during the 8, count them again, 8 separate House inveistigations of Hillary’s role in Benghaxzi? All of that only found that the GOP in Congress had cut funding for diplomatic security. She did nothing wrong, but they and Fox News just would not let go, culminating in an 11-hour straight interrogation of her that ended with her interrogaters humiilated and with nothing. Do you remember that?

            OT”OH, we have seen a record number of people from the Trump administratino being removed from office for various misbehaviors, with a large number of them in jail outright at this moment. A bit of a contrast I would say, and it is not because the Deep State loved Hillary and dislikes Trump. The Obama admin was clean as a whistle while the Trump one is probably the most corrupt in all of US history.

          2. 2slugbaits

            ilsm There is a swamp of hold overs in non military “intelligence” community.

            No, the “swamp” is with the private sector non-military “intelligence” community, not the career civil servants. Career civil servants follow rules and regulations. Sometimes those rules and regulations get in the way of what out-of-control presidents want to do. So they farm out the job to outfits like Blackwater. And the analysis-for-hire stuff is farmed out to Rand, LMI, CACI, etc.

            I do not see either side having the best interests of constitutional government in the US.

            Well, I can tell you that a lot of top military officers have agonized over the possibility that they might have to stage a coup if Trump orders them to do something unlawful. If you’re in the military you take an oath to defend the Constitution and you have a positive legal and constitutional requirement to disobey any illegal order issued by the president. You can be prosecuted for not disobeying. And that’s something that concerns a lot of senior officers. You might be surprised at the number of senior military officers who have been agonizing over this possibility ever since the summer of 2016 when started talking about withdrawing from NATO.

            Phony impeachment and over 3 years of torpedoing the Trump organization

            The Democrats weren’t the ones who invited a foreign government to dig up dirt on a political opponent. Trump has no one to blame but himself. He has always wallowed in self-pity and you do him no favors by enabling that kind of childish behavior.

        2. Moses Herzog

          @ 2slugbaits
          I respect your opinion on this topic (as well as other topics), and agree with you to a large extent on “bureaucratic permanence”. That being said, how is that whole “bureaucratic permanence” thing working for the NOAA with Wilbur Ross?? One might get the idea that the people working in Birmingham Alabama, along with their higher up bosses, aren’t so confident in that.

          One could also add, the EPA, USDA economists who recognize American farmers’ suffering…… and on and on and on……..

          1. 2slugbaits

            Moses Herzog how is that whole “bureaucratic permanence” thing working for the NOAA with Wilbur Ross??

            Well, the bureaucracy has certainly slowed things down. Can you imagine Trump unchained?

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Thank you, Moses, for largely repeating what i said above without noting that I said it. One difference is that I pointed buteaucrats actually being fired as has happened at EPA and USDA. The ones at NOAA were criticized, but so far none of them have been fired.

    3. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall In that 90 minute discussion I’m sure she must have provided you with specific examples. Care to share?

      But your main reason for making the post was to try to establish some kind of false equivalence between normal frictions between bureaucracies and the kind of Mafia shakedown operation that Trump was pursuing. If you don’t see the difference, then perhaps you shouldn’t be voting. You might want to acquaint yourself with the way real world bureaucracies work in the developed world. It’s not like the Alt-Right fantasy nonsense you hear at Breitbart.

      1. pgl

        It is interesting that Brucie Boy did not share her name. I bet if someone asked her about this alleged conversation her reply would be “WTF is Bruce Hall”?

        1. Bruce Hall

          pgl, the conversation was on a plane between Boston and Detroit. I mentioned that I had spent the weekend at Harvard and she said that she has attended and spoke at conferences at Harvard discussing HIV programs. She also volunteered that she worked with an Harvard professor on a project in Africa among her many projects in Africa and Asia. I did not ask her name and she did not ask mine. We simply talked freely knowing that we could talk openly. I did learn she is Canadian with a Masters in Honors Economics from McGill University, worked in the Canadian government for a decade, and now evaluates research programs and local health care conditions for HIV grants.

          But if you asked her did she talk with a retired business, logistics, and operating systems planner for Ford on that trip, she would acknowledge that she did. She definitely would ask, “WTF is a pgl?” And I’d have to answer some anonymous stock pusher or Wall Street type based on his penchant for 10-K reports.

          1. pgl

            Seriously Bruce – none of your alleged conversation is of any interest. But no – I think you made all of this up. Such a fertile mind I guess. But how this excuses Trump’s treason? Even RUDY’s rants are more to the point. Snicker.

          2. pgl

            “And I’d have to answer some anonymous stock pusher or Wall Street type based on his penchant for 10-K reports.”

            What an incredibly dumba$$ comment. I do not work on Wall Street and I certainly do not push stocks. But I do realize that the SEC provides a treason trove of valuable information literally for free.

            Yea we know you prefer the transcripts from Fox and Friends for your business analysis. But such a retarded cheap shot from the peanut gallery is just further proof of how incredibly lazy and stupid you happen to be.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Now now, pgl, not only is Bruce a “retired business, logistics, and operating systems planner for Ford,” but ha had just “spent the weekend at Harvard.” Do please show some respect here. Tsk, tsk.

      2. Bruce Hall

        2slug, her comments were with the frustration that governments each have their own set of rules and regulations when it comes to taking actions that can reduce the spread of HIV and the control of programs and methods to provide treatment. These are often at odds with the best methodologies and distribution of care available and they are generally unwilling to bend much to accommodate “outsiders”. “Ve haf our vays.” Can I give you details? No. These were just her general observations after three years of international programs management.

        As for Trump’s “mafia shakedown”, I’m still waiting to read the “there” there (as I remarked to Menzie). Please provide specific documentation of a threat or demand for quid pro quo. Oh, wait. There is only an accusation (unnamed and unvetted source) of talking with a Ukrainian leader. Oh, my! Well, the talking part wasn’t denied. What I read was a request for any information regarding the talk about Biden interfering in a Ukrainian prosecution of his son. If there is no “there” there about Biden… or if there is… it would seem a request for clarification about the conduct of potential president is important for the American voters. Remember the dubious Steele dossier? That was just assumed to be factual. Here, Trump is asking for clarification if any is available. That’s a horrible, treasonous thing to do. Yeah.

        “The other thing, there’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that, so whatever you can do with the attorney general would be great,” Trump said. “Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution, so if you can look into it … It sounds horrible to me.”

        What should be about Biden’s conduct is convoluted into an inquisition about Trump asking if Zelenskiy can provide any clarifying information. . Don’t worry, if Biden is elected, he will implement new ethics rules… so he says. “Look over there. Ignore the man behind the green curtain.”

        1. baffling

          bruce, i am sure you were not interested in an investigation of the steele dossier to verify its accuracy. you wanted no investigation of it, period.

        2. 2slugbaits

          Bruce Hall Try reading the transcript of the phone call. Congress approves money for Ukraine. Trump suddenly withholds the money and then a few days later suggests that me might want to allow the funding to go ahead, but asks the president of Ukraine to “do us a favor though”. That is the very definition of a quid pro quo. Rudy put lots of Mafia types in prison for a weaker case. But you don’t even need a quid pro quo to demonstrate an illegal and unconstitutional abuse of power. It’s illegal to invite a foreign government to involve itself in a US election. Full stop. It’s just illegal. It’s illegal if I do it, it’s illegal if you do it and it’s illegal for a president to it. Then Trump jeopardized national security by making himself vulnerable to future blackmail by Ukraine…do you think the WH was the only party on the line that kept a record of the phone call? The people who had first hand knowledge of the phone call interpreted Trump’s call as a shakedown. They relayed this to the whistleblower. The IG found the complaint credible. You have to be beyond willfully stupid to not see what happened.

          As to the Steele dossier, it has been found to be largely accurate. Try reading the Mueller report if you want familiarize yourself with the facts on the Steele dossier. There was one thing in the dossier that was untrue and a couple of things that could not be confirmed but also couldn’t be refuted. But most of what was in the dossier was on target. Turn off Fox News and learn the facts.

          What should be about Biden’s conduct is convoluted into an inquisition about Trump

          You’ve really drunk the Fox News Kool-Aid. Many, many, many, many, many news organizations (foreign and domestic) as well as government agencies have examined this issue and found that Joe Biden did nothing wrong. Biden pressured the Ukrainian government to fire the prosecutor, but not because the prosecutor was investigating Biden’s son’s company, but because the prosecutor WASN’T prosecuting cases. And it wasn’t just Biden telling the Ukrainians this. So did the entire Obama Administration. So did all of our NATO allies. Here is a detailed timeline of what happened. Turn off Fox News and tune out Mark Levin. Take the time to read the detailed timeline and quit embarrassing yourself.

          her comments were with the frustration that governments each have their own set of rules and regulations

          This is a very strange complaint. Are you trying to tell us that governments shouldn’t have their own set of rules and regulations? Those regulations might be personally frustrating for people, but in what universe is that a “swamp”? The swamp is when Big Pharma bribes congress critters with campaign contributions to enact laws that hurt the general welfare. But that’s a problem with voters who keep voting for corrupt (and mostly GOP) congress critters who make the laws. That’s not the fault of the bureaucrats. What’s your solution? Are you suggesting that bureaucrats should ignore congressionally enacted laws and just do whatever they want?

          1. pgl

            “Try reading the transcript of the phone call.”

            Actually Brucie has decided not to read the transcript since Herr Trump told him the phone call was “perfect”. That’s all Brucie boy cares to know. And yes you have an excellent summary but Brucie Boy will not read that either. Trump sycophant only listen to Fox and Friends pre-approved spin.

        3. Barkley Rosser


          Wow. Velensky asks for javelin missiles and Trump never says anythign about that again but says instead “We need a favor” and then goes off about this total fantasyland bs about non-missing servers supposedly with Hillary emails on them, and then later outright asks for an investigation of Biden and his son.

          As for the Steele dossier, yeah, Hannity likes to say it has been discredited, but in fact about 78% of it has been verified. Only a few items have been disproven, and some remain undetemined, most infamously the infamous pee tape. But by now after it being verified Trump paid off prostitutes, who carees?

        4. noneconomist

          Well, Bruce. In this call–the subject of which was the $400 Million in military aid to Ukraine–I would have expected more discussion centered on how that aid will be utilized and whether it’s enough to counter Russian and Russian separatist threats in the east. But there’s very little–if any of that. I mean, if we’re talking about the greatest internal threat to Ukraine, it certainly isn’t the Bidens. Unless, that is, anti-tank missiles are needed to counter THEM.
          But what we get IS a lengthy discussion of the Bidens who, if we’re listening to Trump defenders, ARE still the most corrupt force in that country.
          Interesting, according to a recent Military Times piece, the Pentagon “…in May officially certified that it had seen enough anti-corruption progress to justify releasing the congressionally authorized aid…
          “The defense undersecretary for policy, John Rood, wrote in a May 23 letter to Congress that the Pentagon had made a thorough assessment of Ukraine’s anti-corruption and other reforms.
          “On behalf of the secretary of defense, and in coordination with the secretary of state, I have certified that the government of Ukraine has taken substantial actions to make defense institutional reforms for the purpose of decreasing corruption….” Rood wrote.
          That would have been a proper request; i.e., tell me how the battle against corruption is going. That’s a far cry, however, from his desire to send his personal lawyer (with help from the AG!) to investigate–not progress against corruption for the battle against Russian aggression– but to investigate the Bidens.
          If you’re unable to see what’s “there,” it’s fairly obvious you’re not looking. Or you simply don’t want to.

        5. Willie

          The aid cutoff followed by asking for a “favor” is a B-movie grade shakedown. Trump is incapable of anything more subtle than B-movie grade, but there it is, plain to see. Plus, why do you suppose the WH was so keen to make the transcript classified? They offered a reconstruction that’s amazingly damning, so think how much worse the hidden version must be.

          There are none so blind as those who will not see.

        6. Willie

          It was a B-movie grade routine. Cut off aid then request a “favor.” Pretty obvious, but then Trump never was much on subtlety. The reconstructed transcript was damning enough. Imagine how bad the verbatim transcript that the White House has been working so hard to bury must be.

          There are none so blind at those who will not see.

  6. noneconomist

    Has there ever been a better time for those 92,000 indictments to be handed down and for the traitors to be be rousted from their beds in the middle of the night and sent to Gitmo to be tried in military tribunals? And for the country to be returned to its morally erect pro Constitution Christian roots?
    J. Blowhard Hambone! Your leader needs you now, more than ever!

  7. pgl

    ‘CBS’ “60 Minutes” obtained a letter from the whistleblower’s lead attorney outlining concerns about his client’s “personal safety,” the program reported Sunday night.’

    No $hit Sherlock. Even if the White House gang itself is too incompetent to bump off this whistleblower, they very well could outsource this to either MBS or Putin’s gang – both of which are experts are rubbing off anyone who dares criticize them.

  8. ilsm

    I did a telephone survey on Saturday….. among a number of questions I answered “strongly opposes impeachment”.

    My observation is much fluster a lot of innuendo, all politics.

    I wandered around google to discover how Ukraine can be called an ally. I found an OSCE memorandum signed in 1994 at Budapest based on Ukraine adopting non proliferation. No run through advise and consent. That was around the time US and Russia enacted a protocol and recycled nuclear weapons turned in from the former USSR republics.

    I did find:
    This concerns cooperation in criminal matters.

    I am suspect Trump was using this in the phone call and the rumorblower related hearsay!

    I follow:

    Odds about same for Trump, seems Warren is benefiting.

    1. pgl

      Just yesterday you were favoring impeachment. Of course we know Russian bots have trouble making their minds.

    2. 2slugbaits

      I am suspect Trump was using this in the phone call and the rumorblower related hearsay!

      You win the prize for being the most gullible poster here. Congratulations. Never mind that Ukraine had already investigated the matter and found no wrongdoing. Never mind the fact that Trump felt he had to hide the phone call (i.e., conceal the evidence of his crimes). If the phone call was just “perfect”, then why did Trump have to move an unclassified phone call transcript to a highly classified server? This seems to fit:
      It’s an oldie but goody. It’s just as true today as it was 55 years ago. Just substitute MAGA hatters for John Birchers.

  9. Moses Herzog

    @ ilsm
    Barkley Junior has been intimating to me he wants to play the character that is analogous to Major General Bartford Hamilton Steele in your version of the Air Force. He has always regarded himself as a Shakespearian trained actor, and is willing to work at the standard union wage during his summer break. My biggest fear is Barkley will end up being typecast for all his future roles.

  10. 2slugbaits

    Wow. Looks like The Federalist got caught lying about “Formgate” and having been specifically called out by the IG, The Federalist is now trying to spin it as confirmation of their original (now completely debunked) story. The sheer mendacity of Team Trump is breathtaking.

  11. Moses Herzog

    I love the early part of this clip so much. This is what REAL video journalism looks like. It’s called a follow up question. Not poke the bear, let them muddy the waters, then move on to the next question. NO, when they don’t answer the prior question you keep punching the same part of their ugly face until they answer the question:

    The truth is, if Joe Biden wasn’t selling influence, “team trump” would have nothing to talk about here.

    1. 2slugbaits

      Moses Herzog The truth is, if Joe Biden wasn’t selling influence, “team trump” would have nothing to talk about here.

      Huh??? You’ve got things confused. It’s pretty clear that the Ukrainian energy company Burisma arranged to put Hunter Biden on the board in expectation that it might provide the company with greater leverage. In other words, Burisma believed they were buying influence. There is no evidence that Hunter Biden ever did anything more than collect a salary, so it looks like Burisma didn’t get much for their money. Compare that to the kinds of influence bad foreign actors get when the treat Trump’s children well. Be that as it may, all of that was not good optics for Hunter Biden, but it doesn’t have a damn thing to do with Joe Biden. The problem with all this garbage coming from many of these Russian supported websites is that Joe Biden not only didn’t help his son, he actually put his son in greater jeopardy by demanding that Ukrainian prosecutors be more aggressive in pursuing corruption cases!!! But the story you hear from folks like Bruce Hall is that Joe Biden was protecting his son. Far from it. Joe Biden was following the official Obama Administration’s policy of demanding more vigorous prosecutions, as were all of our NATO allies. And for good reason. Corruption in Ukraine was rampant while Ukraine was fighting a hot war with Russia and we didn’t want our aid being diverted away from that fight. The IMF was also demanding that the corrupt prosecutor be fired because he wasn’t prosecuting corruption. In fact, the Ukrainian government at the time was so corrupt that DoD recommended against providing Javelin missiles to the Ukrainians because it was all but certain that they would end up in Moscow for reverse engineering.

      The most disturbing thing about this entire episode is that it exposes just how gullible 40% of the electorate really is. Team Trump’s stories are so flimsy that no parent would believe it if their teenager made up a cock-and-bull story like that. That teenager would be grounded for a month. But yet with Trump they fall for it hook, line and sinker.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ 2slugbaits
        You can’t have it BOTH ways, which is in essence what you’re arguing here. Whether it is implied or actually done makes no difference. That is what Joe and Hunter Biden were selling—influence. You can’t sell and trade in influence and then go “but we didn’t do anything in actuality”. Influence often is something that can’t be tangibly shown or proven. That is indeed why so many of Joe Biden’s family deal and trade in influence—it’s not something that’s easy to prosecute. Which gives the Bidens cash flows and salaries for doing what Hunter Biden did—offer ZERO expertise to Burisma. What did Hunter give them?? There is nothing he could offer Burisma other than political influence. Implied or otherwise.

        This is the first time I’ve seen you practicing blatant hypocrisy on this blog, which saddens me, as I assume what Ivanka does makes you just as ill as what Hunter does nauseates me.

        1. 2slugbaits

          Moses Herzog Joe Biden and Hunter Biden are two different people. I don’t think there is any question but that Hunter Biden was peddling his potential influence. But there is zero evidence that Joe Biden did anything that even had a whiff of doing his son a favor. Zilch. Nada. In fact, all of the evidence tells us that Joe Biden actually put his son’s welfare in jeopardy by demanding that the corrupt prosecutor get serious about prosecuting corruption. Joe Biden was telling the Ukrainians exactly the same thing that the rest of the Obama Administration was saying. Which was exactly the same thing that the Brits were telling the Ukrainians. And the French. And the Germans. And the Dutch. All of our NATO allies were demanding the same thing. And so was the IMF.

          For most of his life Joe Biden was not a particularly wealthy man. Almost all of his current wealth has come since he left office in 2017 and virtually all of that income was from book sales (both Joe and his wife) as well as from relatively modest speaking fees. So I have no idea what you are talking about when you refer to “the Bidens [plural] cash flows.” No question that Hunter Biden’s income from Burisma was due to the company’s belief that Hunter might have influence. But Joe Biden is not Hunter Biden. You are conflating the two men and falling into Fox Noise propaganda.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ 2slugbaits
            I’m sure Joe Biden was “shocked” to find out what Hunter was doing. Along with being “shocked” at what his own brother was doing. Here, you can read about it in this FOX news link, and “there’s no way” Joe Biden knew about any of it.


            I have enough respect for you as a commenter here, I’m going to withhold personal comments for the time being. I try to be fair with everyone, and I’m an “equal opportunity hater”. Keep it in mind.

          2. Moses Herzog

            Some other educational links from FOX news on the saintly man we all know as “Middle Class Joe”

            Well, it’s technically going to his PAC, right?? What some people call “dark money”, so I’m sure Joe Biden has no indirect connection to the strategizing on how that PAC money is spent….. Just like “Middle Class joe” had “no idea” what his sons and brother were doing.

            And according to 2slugbaits, Hunter just barely escaped prosecution in Ukraine, because joe was begging (!!!!) the prosecutors there to go arrest his son, but “lo and behold” in a miracle as might be performed of a Catholic saint, Hunter somehow escaped prosecution. Even though Hunter’s own father was “egging on” Ukrainian prosecutors to go after his son!!! Wow man, taking notes here because I’ve been watching FOX news too much.

            Wow man, I learn new things on this blog everyday. And don’t forget people, Barkley has Copmala Harris killing it in the South Carolina primaries, so get ready folks.

          3. Barkley Rosser


            Not much “there” there in either of the articles you linked to. So both Jimmy and Hunter Biden have tried to make money off being related to Joe Biden. But according to that first one, they failed. It is disputed if Jimmy made that opening speech, but in any case the bottom line was that in spite of his possible vision of foreigners “lining up” the firm managed to raise zero foreign money. Nothing is alleged about Joe Biden himself in that one. Just why are you posting this? To show us again what a worthless idiot you are?

            As for the second one, again, Bohai may have done some bad things and Hunter is connected to it. The only allegation about Joe Biden is that in 2000 way before Hunter got involved with Bohai, Joe made an incorrect prediction that opening up trade with China would not hurt US manufacturing, which it did. As it is,Hannity right now is repeating every night a tale of how Hunter rode on Air Force 2 to China with his dad and then got a $1.5 billion deal as a result. This happens to be just plain false, fake news, but Hannity is endlessl and loopingly repeating it. This link does not make that claim, but you are playing in the same waters.

            Hey, isn’t Hannity going to have you on soon to chant “Pocahontas! Pocahontas!” over and over again if Warren clearly moves into being the solid Dem frontrunner? But that will have to wait as Hannity and gang are too busy now trying to save Trump from impeachment.

          4. baffling

            the hunter biden story is disturbing at times, but not for what is being reported by the media. we have all this complaining about hunter and influence peddling by serving on the company board. my issues is really with company boards in general. they exist precisely to peddle influence. we have legalized that in the usa. you think anybody sits on a company board, collects income, and is expected to DO any actual work? i for one have really not seen that behavior from a board member. they sit their collecting their paycheck because they may have connections which will put the company in an advantage sometime in the (near) future. if we are really interested in dealing with corruption and conflict of interest, better accountability of board members would be a start. so if we want to attack hunter biden, so be it. but in the name of fairness, we should probably widen the net a bit and go after all board members around the world who exist simply to peddle their influence. sitting on a board, collecting $50k a year to attend a yearly corporate meeting rubs me the wrong way, when most board members do not take their oversight responsibilities seriously.

  12. pgl

    More RUDY! This time talking to HANNITY!

    Fox News host Sean Hannity asked Giuliani on Monday if he would testify, something which he has not yet been asked to do. “I don’t know. I’m weighing the alternatives,” Giuliani said. “I’ll kind of go through it. I’ll get all my evidence together. I’ll get my chart. I don’t know if they would let me use video tapes and tape recordings that I have.”

    VIDEO?! Of what RUDY – Hunter Biden having sex? Oh my – that’s a HIGH CRIME!

  13. 2slugbaits

    When you’re a Trumper and you’ve lost the Washington Examiner, you know your story is falling apart.

    A consensus has been forming for months, in both Ukraine and in the U.S. government, that Ukrainian Prosecutor General Yuri Lutsenko, who earned the distrust of local anti-corruption activists during his three years in office, lured President Trump’s personal lawyer into a rash pursuit of dirt on Democrats that could ultimately bring the American president down.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ 2slugbaits
      I’m not sure that’s a link you want to be quoting, certainly not that segment, the verb “lured” is very funny in this context. The portion of the story you quote also achieves donald trump’s main goal at the moment (certainly has to be top 5 on the list) —-Disassociating himself with anything Giuliani was doing in Ukraine

      Is Lutsenko “corrupt”?? Probably. But I strongly suspect less corrupt than your average Kiev politician. Which makes him strange film casting as “a devil on Giuliani’s shoulder”. I would say, laughably funny cast as “a devil on Giuliani’s shoulder”.

      Giuliani was on the TRUE witch hunt before he probably knew Lutsenko’s name.

  14. joseph

    The craziest thing is that we have the Attorney General of the United States going around the world pursuing QAnon conspiracies. There are no adults in the administration to rein in a dementia addled Trump. It’s loons all the way down.

  15. pgl

    More lies from Trump:

    Ever since a whistleblower exposed Trump’s attempt to pressure the Ukrainian president to dig up dirt on Joe Biden, the President and his Republican allies have tried to discredit the whistleblower’s complaint by claiming it was based on “second hand information” and that Inspector General Michael Atkinson’s office had sneakily changed its requirement on whistleblower complaints right before the complaint in question was submitted on August 12.
    The IG fired back with this rebuttal:

    Of course Pompeo and Barr will deny ever reading this rebuttal while we know Trump sycophant Bruce Hall will rely on the edited version that Sean Hannity will provide tonight.

    1. 2slugbaits

      Right. For one thing, the law never required first-hand knowledge. And second, the whistleblower made several complaints, some of which were second-hand and some of which were in fact first-hand. A lot of this stuff goes over the head of your typical Trump supporter who knows nothing about internal government regulations. Not only is second-hand knowledge acceptable in a whistleblower case, but as a government worker you are legally required to provide that second-hand knowledge to the whistleblower office. It’s a version of “see something, say something.” It’s not your job as a government worker to actively investigate a complaint. That’s why we have IG offices. But it is your job to report something if you have any reason at all to believe it might be true, even if that belief is based on second-hand knowledge. Of course, in this case the whistleblower’s knowledge was actually first-hand according to the IG.

  16. pgl

    Oh my – the Trump sycophants have lost Chuck Grassley:

    As President Donald Trump and his allies attack the whistleblower that kicked off the House’s impeachment inquiry, the still unidentified person gained a powerful ally on Tuesday: Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley. The most senior GOP senator has fashioned a career on protecting whistleblowers during presidencies of both parties. And in the middle of one of the most tempestuous political storms in two decades, the seventh-term Iowan is sticking to his position even if it’s at odds with the president himself. In a Tuesday statement, Grassley moved to stave off attacks and the unmasking of the federal whistleblower who first divulged Trump’s call with Ukraine’s president. Trump and many of his allies in Congress and outside have been working to chip away at the whisleblower’s credibility, calling his complaint “hearsay” and playing down its validity. Grassley is, so far, having none of it. He said Tuesday that the fact that the individual’s knowledge of Trump’s phone call and the White House restricting records came secondhand should not invalidate his reporting.
    “This person appears to have followed the whistleblower protection laws and ought to be heard out and protected. We should always work to respect whistleblowers,” Grassley said. “Complaints based on second-hand information should not be rejected out of hand, but they do require additional leg work to get at the facts and evaluate the claim’s credibility.”

  17. Willie

    There are more cracks in the armor now. Looks like the tweetstorm is a full panic tweetstorm these days. Trump is making unveiled threats in tweets now. That won’t play well to anybody with any intelligence. My current guess is that the investigation goes into early next year, and then when it gets to the Senate, Moscow Mitch will find a way to shut things down, pronto. It may not work, though, especially if enough happens in the mean time. The irony is that the administration is now boxed in almost completely. The administration can turn over the damning documents or they can continue to stonewall and blow smoke. Either way, it’s ugly and unlikely to play well among any except the most mindless partisans.

    Trump is old enough to remember what happened to Nixon, but he’s proving his foolishness. Anybody who lived in NYC in the 1980s has no respect for his intelligence or acumen. If this was not so bad for my country, I would enjoy the show. I encourage Canadians, Australians, Mexicans, the French, and everyone else to enjoy the grim comedy that’s coming. I won’t encourage the English, because they are pretty well up a creek right now, too.

      1. Willie

        Trump wanted to be Mussolini. He doesn’t have enough foresight to anticipate the poor outcome of being Mussolini. Instead, as you note, he is Berlusconi all the way to the bad makeup. Unlike Berlusconi, he is unlikely to have an Act II. The harm he has done will be clear and he will be reviled in what is left of his lifetime. Provided he does not manage a convenient cheeseburger fueled aneurysm.

      2. Moses Herzog

        @ baffling
        This is one of your better observations. An “exact” remake of the original Berlusconi screenplay?? NO. But there are parallels and enough to make note. Especially when we look at the extreme ignorance of the general electorate. I think our governmental system gives us some extra backstops Italy doesn’t have. But wow, it could get there if we didn’t have some of those things in place. But again, if people don’t want to be educated voters no system is going to save them, and that’s what people keep forgetting.

        1. Willie

          I have thought Trump was Berlusconi since he was elected. Or the American Caligula. Take your pick. Neither is flattering, and both fit.

      3. Moses Herzog

        @ baffling
        To use some good southern USA colloquial English you “might even could” say, that 2019 Italy really isn’t outside of a stone’s throw distance in political conundrum:

        Maybe Italy’s situation is how Quentin Tarantino felt about Kill Bill 1 and Kill Bill 2, some people saw it as a sequel, but Tarantino saw it as one single film. Maybe when we look at Italy in the 2nd half of 2019 we are just watching the latter portion of the same film.

  18. Moses Herzog

    Well we know Pompeo was listening to the Zelensky phone call where donald trump was twisting Zelenky’s arm. We also see how AG William Barr was gearing his schedule based on Ukraine alone (not normally an AG’s job–understatement of the year). William Barr’s hands are VERY dirty on this. William Barr behaves like donald trump’s personal attorney—not like an Attorney General. William Barr is “the new Michael Cohen”. Giuliani claims he had phone calls with Pompeo showing Pompeo was fully aware of Giuliani’s “shadow” activities in Ukraine (he claims to have phone recordings). Giuliani’s doing this “off the books” from the State Department shows clear self-awareness that what they were doing was ILLEGAL and nefarious.

    Here’s another thing to note: Mike Pence was engrossed in White House Ukraine policy, and cancelled a trip to Ukraine. Why would Pence cancel a trip to Ukraine??—because donald trump ordered him to, as another unsubtle “message” to Zelensky to fabricate a Biden crime or lose $400million in funds.

    Pompeo had plans to run for the U.S. Senate, Pence thought this was his personal ticket to the White House. Well, we already knew Pompeo and Pence had no personal integrity, or why team up with donald trump?? Now they have only confirmed what average intelligence observers already knew, that Pompeo and Pence are not only willing to ride on the MAGA train to “success” but also willing to sell-out their own nation and the security of the European Theater in the process.

  19. pgl

    “Jon A. Sale is co-chair of the firm’s White Collar & Government Investigations Practice Group. He is a leading white collar criminal defense attorney who is one of two attorneys in the state of Florida designated by Chambers U.S.A. as an “eminent practitioner” in the white collar field.”

    I’ll skip portions of his resume to get to this:

    “Mr. Sale also served as an Assistant Special Watergate Prosecutor under Special Prosecutors Archibald Cox and Leon Jaworski. His responsibilities extended to supervising grand jury matters and functioning as trial counsel in resulting litigation. He participated in legal efforts to obtain and review secret White House tapes to determine whether criminal conduct had taken place in the Oval Office and among senior Presidential staff members. He also participated in litigating an issue of first impression in the Fifth Circuit, which tested the power of the judiciary when ruling on a government Motion to Dismiss a criminal proceeding. Mr. Sale also served as a Special Assistant to the Attorney General of the United States supervising a grand jury investigation to determine if an ambassadorship was awarded as a quid pro quo for a political contribution.”

    Well – he knows his stuff! It seems Mr. Sales is already frustrated with his client about all those TV appearances!

  20. joseph

    Today we have Peter Navarro on Fox Business News saying that the impeachment inquiry is an “attempted coup d’etat,” comparing House Dems to Stalin’s secret police, and saying House Democrats could be “more dangerous” than China, Russia, Iran or North Korea.

    Trump has spent three years auditioning the most wacko nuts in the country to run the government. He’s finally got his dream casting for his administration reality show. Guiliani, Barr, Pompeo, Navarro, etc.

    It’s crazy loons all the way down.

  21. 2slugbaits

    Good to see that some more moderate Democrats on the Intelligence Committee are willing to openly discuss the possibility of ordering the Sergeant-at-Arms to place Secretary Pompeo under arrest if he fails to comply with House subpoenas. That’s something that I never though I’d hear.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ 2slugbaits
      I’m not doubting you but I would like to see the source for that with my own eyes. Frankly it sounds like something Rachel Maddow would say just to push her viewers’ buttons. Lots of interesting stories over on Politico today, this one not the least of which:

      Grassley has been carrying trump’s water for quite awhile now, so when you see even a slight break off by a Republican, those are the ones that are going to get my attention.

        1. Moses Herzog

          @ 2slugbaits
          I appreciate the Quigley link.

          Seeing with my own eyes a Congressman on the Intelligence Committee say that gives me, I don’t know how to say it—sustenance to my soul?? (seems overly dramatic way to say it, but lost for a better phrase). But I know how these folks in the higher socio-economic classes behave to each other. Even after hearing (and believing) you mention the two congressman verbalize this, verbalizing the intention and putting it into action are different things. Can you imagine watching your evening news and hear them say “Today, Rudolph Giuliani was detained in a prison cell for refusing….. ” While hearing that would nearly put me into orgasmic jubilation—- I put it about 20-to-1 odds that Giuliani or Pompeo spend even 12 hours sitting in a jail cell.

          1. Moses Herzog

            Let me make clear, when I say “I doubt it he would spend 12 hours in a jail cell” I’m not saying Giuliani would “turn” that quickly, I am saying the cowards in the House of Reps would give him a milder punishment than having him sit in a prison cell. Giuliani and Pompeo deserve worse than a prison cell for lying and obfuscating—but I don’t see Congressmen punishing “one of their own” in that manner.

  22. joseph

    NYT is reporting that Trump asked aides to check into the cost of lining the Mexican border with trenches filled with alligators and snakes.

    It seems that Trump came to Washington to fill up the swamp.

  23. Moses Herzog

    More interesting stuff. Never been a fan of Clair McCaskill, but I have to say I was quite impressed with her speaking (as well as the other ladies’ oratory) in this video clip. Quite impressive:

    Take special note of how McCaskill describes Pompeo’s non-response to a question on the Zelensky arm twisting and walking away from the camera after it become public Pompeo heard the Zelensky call as it was happening and Pompeo had already lied about it. I think McCaskill really made the accurate observation—this is the same deal with Giuliani now, telling a contradictory tale to Pompeo’s, and correct me if I’m wrong (happy to be corrected) but William Barr has been quiet for several days now, has he not?? Other than saying he refuses to recuse himself from the Zelensky arm twisting??

    1. Barkley Rosser


      I agree with you about McCaskill’s remarks. On the money.

      However, you seem to be falling back into some of your old bad habits with this talkof “the other ladies’ oratory,” But, I guess we should just write this off on you being a fine old school southern gentleman, like my late old man, you know, J. Barkley Rosser, Senior.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Barkley Junior
        There’s no need to be extraordinarily insulting with your last remark. I can take some unwarranted gut shots but stay away from the groin area please.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          “groin area”? Putting you in the same category as my late father? I have great respect for my late father, and I am under the impression you think he was better than I am. He certainly was smarter and professionally more important, and indeed, the perfect southern gentleman of the old school, although he moved beyond being a southern racist and supported civil rights, even while being a fairly conservative Republican.

          If comparing you to my old man is a hit in the groin area, well then, Moses, what are you doing when you regularly point out that I am beneath my old man? Is this hitting inside the groin area? Tsk tsk.

  24. Paul

    I want to say that I used to find this blog useful when Hamilton was still posting. Now it seems that Menzie’s TDS is all that drives the discussion and analysis. All the talk of people on Trump’s side “living in bubbles” is just too hypocritical to stomach.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      No, Paul, it is true. Trump has now lied over 13,000 times many orders of magnitude more than any other president. But Fox News repeats his lies, and those who get their news from it believe the lies. Are you one of those? Then you are in the bubble then, and of course you do not want to admit that you are in the bubble.

      Sorry, but there are facts, and very few disputes over facts in the last three years have proven to find Trump or his acoyltes right. Indeed, I am hard pressed to think of a signle example. Can you provide one? Any one? If not, then deal with it: you are in the bubble, a deluded fool.

    2. baffling

      my guess is you would have said the same thing about nixon and commentary related to him in that era. were the people who supported his impeachment also living in a bubble? or are you still one of the fools who believes that what nothing more than partisan politics as well? burglaries and coverups directed by the white house are not things to worry about?

    3. Moses Herzog

      @ Paul
      At the current moment anyway, one of the great things about America is you have a choice. Just like Professor Hamilton had a choice when he went to give a speech at Hoover Institute, a place that humors the “thoughts” of people such as Andrew Breitbart. Well, Professor Hamilton has a right to be proud of that. Just like you have a right to visit ZeroHedge blog over this one, or listen to Alex Jones roughly 3 hours of any weekday.

      You have a choice. And I have this odd sense that Menzie would miss you on this blog about as much as he’d miss me if this was my last comment. Zilcho. Because life goes on, people actually have real constructive things to do in their lives, and any one Lego block in the pyramid just isn’t that important.

  25. Moses Herzog

    I don’t have cable TV. All the cable I get is non-subscribed cable programming that is up on Youtube etc. So, I’m not always sure if I’m “up to speed”compared to the average house that has cable etc. But….. I try to put up stuff that hopefully less than half of Menzie’s readers have already seen or at least “adds insight”. I thought this was pretty informative for a video only 10 minutes long:

  26. Moses Herzog

    This is an important story or “editorial” whichever you feel it’s best categorized as:

    Another story on Mike Pence, BTW one of Pence’s aids was listening in on the Zelensky arm-twisting phone call, so there is zero chance Mike Pence didn’t know about the efforts to dig up dirt on Biden, in addition to the fact we are supposed to believe he didn’t hear word around the campfire about what Giuliani was doing:

  27. Moses Herzog

    Well first Cadet Bonespurs wanted to put snakes and alligators in a trench along the border, then Cadet Bonespurs suggested shooting directly at immigrants’ legs, and now Cadet Bonespurs wants to use bayonets on the southern border.

    Wow, Cadet Bonespurs is such a creative creature isn’t he?? I haven’t heard a thought as “deep” and “complex” as stopping immigrants with bayonets since Republican Mitt Romney’s complaints that America was no longer using battleships in their Navy arsenal, and that this spelled certain doom for the U.S. military:

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