32 thoughts on “PredictIt: “Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?”

  1. Barkley Rosser

    Well, Daily Kos has just reported that Pelosi will be announcing a formal impeachment inquiry at 5 PM after the upcoming meeting in Washington. Of course this will not result in a conviction or removal from office of Trump, and no doubt he will use it to stir up his hard core supporters. Pelosi’s reluctance to proceed with this reflected her memory of 1998, when the GOP impeached Bill Clinton, only to lose seats in the election of that year. We may still see such a reaction, much as Trump clearly deserves to be impeached.

  2. Not Trampis

    Far be it from me an Aussie to tell Yanks about their political system but IF Trump deserves to be impeached then it is unimportant what the Senate will do. They will gain the support from most voters. His base is irrelevant.
    If the impeachment is not seen as fair dinkum as in 1998 then they will react against it.

    1. Willie

      Exactly. If the Senate is seen as abetting a criminal, there will be turnover. If not, then there won’t. There is risk for both sides of the aisle, and Pelosi knows it. McConnell seems all in on a 1998 replay.

  3. sammy

    If it’s “convicted” not” impeached”, bet the under heavily. Remember what happened when the Republicans impeached Clinton under much clearer charges? Arlen Spector had to invoke Scottish law to exonerate Clinton, and the R’s got hammered at the ballot box. However you will not go broke betting that the Democrats will do something completely idiotic.

    1. pgl

      Clinton under much clearer charges????? Oh yes getting a blow job is a high crime while Trump’s brazen treason is no big deal. Come on Sammy – I would think even you would not write such stupid BS.

      1. baffling

        ultimately trump will get caught up in clinton type charges, basically based on poor behavior like lying and screwing porn starts. but he very well may get caught up in legitimate legal issues, with clear abuse of power originations, like withholding foreign aid until another world leader attacks trumps political opponent. or the release of classified information for political gain. these will not resonate well in the election. this is why he tried to appease the democrats with the release of more information this week-but it may be too late. from what i understand, he is quite concerned about impeachment. simply because this investigation is outside of the executive branch, so he has a harder time influencing the outcome. he cannot force his underlings to break the law and squash congress.

      2. noneconomist

        Yes, Republicans have always felt fellatio is a far more serious national security threat than Russian aggression.

  4. Barkley Rosser

    Not Trampis,

    No poll so far has shown more American supporting impeachment than opposing it. I do not know how this will play out ultimately, but it is not obvious American voters will respond as you forecast. Supposedly Trump and a bunch of his allies had actively sought this outcome precisely because they think it will help them.

  5. don

    I am curious to see the transcript of the call. He knew many people were listening in, so if he transgressed, he probably didn’t know it. Of course, ignorance of the law is never an excuse, but it is hard to guess how his statements will be viewed in the court of public opinion. IMHO, the impeachment attempts will be based more on assessments of that court than on the technical legal issues. Trump’s stumbling-bull-in-a-china-shop pose, where he always makes it abundantly clear that he is not a professional politician, may come to his aid, as it has so many times in the past.

    1. pgl

      The call is not the only issue. Why do so many people play Steno Sue when it comes to Trump’s incessant lies? I want to see the whistle blower’s memo in its entirety. And yes – let him testify.

    1. pgl

      Trump is the road runner? Seriously? Have you seen how incredibly fat Trump is? Any more really dumb cartoons from the peanut gallery?

      1. 2slugbaits

        Right. I was thinking the same thing. And instead of Wile E Coyote always baiting the roadrunner with bird seed, he should be using Acme double quarterpounders with cheese.

    2. Willie

      There are some angry conservative Americans as well. No Democrat that I know of has accused Trump of treason and pointed out that it is a capital offense. A Republican has said those things. It is not 1998 or 1973 or 1863.

    3. noneconomist

      Good takedown on that 13 year old girl, Rick. She should be doing normal teenage stuff—maybe like worrying whether she’ll make the cheerleading squad or getting a modeling contract or making Jesus her personal savior—than concerning herself with the future of the planet.
      Maybe she’ll find a rich husband who can buy her a Porsche ( God forbid her settling for a Volvo, even an all electric one) or maybe her father can give her a few million to start a climate saving business or a casino.
      And maybe, just maybe, she can find a mall to hang out in and learn All American rebel stuff like vaping or smoking actual tobacco like they do in Kentucky.
      Enough of this teen idealism. Let her get back to what’s made this country great or at least Make Sweden great again.

  6. Julian Silk

    Dear Folks,

    This is to support pgl part of the way. The Ukraine call may not be enough by itself to even damage Trump’s position, given the loyalty of his supporters. But the impeachment hearings may bring to light other things that he has done, or that others have done, which may result in damage to the standing of others, including Vice-President Pence. Vice-President Agnew was seen as impeachment insurance by the Nixon administration, but other charges, unrelated to Watergate but related to bribery, caused him to resign and accept a nolo contendre plea.


    1. pgl

      There was a quid pro quo even if those exact words are not part of that particular call’s transcript. That is why we need to see the whistle blower report. BTW – Rudy G. and Donald were editing that transcript last night. Wonder what they will redact?!

    2. Moses Herzog

      @ Julian Silk
      This is a solid point. I heard someone making your same point yesterday (forgot who or I would give credit, some expert on BBC America). It opens up “grand jury testimony” which before would be off-limits, tax returns, etc. So it gives Congress much more power to gather exculpatory information once they get past trump’s feet dragging in the courts.

  7. Not Trampis


    ( We Aussies always make nicknames) I did not make a forecast.

    I merely said if the an impeachment is fair dinkum the public will support it. If it is not as in 1998 they will not.

    As yet there is no impeachment only an investigation to see if there should be one.

    My view is IF there is evidence for the allegation then it would be fair dinkum.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Not Trampis
      When people are old and unethical, they misquote you to change the lines of the argument, because they can’t hold their ground with the original base argument—like implying someone said Rogoff plagiarized when the discussion was falsities/LIES written in an academic paper and a book geared towards academics and the “well read”, which “so happened” to coincide with the authors’ politics. Changing the original lines of the argument—or changing the original sin being called out is “how Junior rolls”.

      If you want to argue with Barkley Junior, get used to it.

      Then we can get into “the lie on top of the lie” such as a presidential candidate denying she made claims to take advantage of quota laws, or being busted for lies in a book and blaming it on “RAs”. It’s not enough to make people do YOUR menial tasks and then put your name on the more gruesome parts of the book-writing task, but then you can deny them co-authorship and then blame them for your errors. Then this becomes “acceptable” behavior because in their work circles “everyone else is doing it”. Which is how we get old men rationalizing it.

      1. baffling

        “such as a presidential candidate denying she made claims to take advantage of quota laws”
        that is not an accurate assessment of what occurred. she did not take advantage of any quota law (nor did she have a need to do so).

    2. Barkley Rosser


      And my answer is that nobody should count on “the public” to support it, no matter how “fair dinkum” it is. Trump has already gotten away with things that many thought would immediately and instantly end his political career, but in the end did not budge his support at all. One from early on when he was running for the GOP nomination was to criticize the late John McCain for having been a prisoner of war in Vietnam. I thought that would be the end of him, but barely a dent. Then there was the whole schtick from him being quoted on “grabbing them by the pussy,” which actually did briefly lead a few GOP pols to distance themselves from him, but not for long as again there ended up being barely a scratch on his popular support.

      Being in OZ you do not realize the all-encompassing nature of the Fox News bubble, in which Trump’s most loyal followers live. I watched its most watched show last night, Hannity, and they have their line down, although it is an out and out lie. But Trump’s followers will never know that, and if some do find out, they will not care. The line is that Biden and his son are the corrupt ones, that Biden got a “good prosecutor” fired (line from the memo of the “transcript”) who was investigattnig Biden’s son, when in fact he was not investigating Biden’s son and was fired because he was not investigating any corruption. But the Trump loyalists have their story, and they will run with it and use it to stir up anger among Trump’s base against all the evil Dems who are impeaching their wonderful president when they should be investigating Biden and his son, not to mention Obama and of course Hillary Clinton.

      A bad sign is that I just now, after the release of the “transcript,” looked at the poll line on Daily Kos, which is a pro-liberal Dem site, and which has not moved for months and long had 45% for impeachment and 48% against. A few minutes ago that moved from 45% in favor of impeachment to 49% against it. So the immediate poll reaction to the release of this “transcript” has been to strengthen the net opposition to impeaching Trump.

      Sorry, NT, but a large part of the US public is completely brainwashed, and remember that Trump won the election last time even as he lost the popular vote by over 3 million.

  8. joseph

    don: ” He knew many people were listening in, so if he transgressed, he probably didn’t know it.”

    After two years of the Mueller investigation and the Don Jr. interactions with the Russians in the news everyday, Trump simply cannot claim that he had no idea that soliciting election assistance from a foreign government is illegal. Claiming ignorance of the law defies common sense.

    And illegality isn’t the worst of it. The big crime is that Trump was jeopardizing the national security of the US by withholding foreign aid for his own personal interests.

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