And argues against excessive debt accumulation.
From a USA Today op-ed:
Every premature death is a tragedy, but death is an unavoidable part of life. More than 2.8 million die each year — nearly 7,700 a day. The 2017-18 flu season was exceptionally bad, with 61,000 deaths attributed to it. Can you imagine the panic if those mortality statistics were attributed to a new virus and reported nonstop?
Current IHME projections (3/31) are for 84K [37K-153K 95% prediction interval] cumulative fatalities by 8/4, assuming current travel restrictions remain in place. The consensus from the suite of models examined by the White House task force seems to be in line with this estimate.
Senator Johnson also forwards the false choice posed between keeping the economy going and engaging in non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs):
Imagine the potential psychological and human toll if this shutdown continues indefinitely, unemployment reaches 20% or higher, as some now predict, and we sink into a deep recession or depression.
Most simulations indicate more fatalities if restrictions are relaxed.
See some actual analysis here:
- Correia et al. Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
- Eichenbaum et al. The Macroeconomics of Epidemics
- Atkeson, A note on the economic impact of coronavirus
- Atkeson, Lockdowns and GDP: Is there a tradeoff?
- NBER working papers on the Covid-19 pandemic
Current IHME projections (3/31) are for 84K [37K-153K 95% prediction interval] cumulative fatalities by 8/4, assuming current restrictions remain in place. Most simulations indicate more fatalities if restrictions are relaxed.
an elected democracy is obviously not a perfect system…
Dear Menzie and Folks,
I think Menzie did a good job on the interview, but that he will have to practice saying “epidemiology”.
The 1918 experience of the resurgence of the Spanish flu with the return of the soldiers would seem to support the argument Menzie is making.
I only have one question, and it is not a trivial one. Today, there was a talk about the effects of the pandemic on the world oil market, sponsored by the National Association of Business Economics. Amy Jaffe made the argument that after the SARS epidemic in China, purchase of private automobiles soared (she claimed a 30% increase between 2002 and 2003). This wasn’t because of a change of the observable fundamentals – per capita income certainly didn’t increase 30% in one year. It seems to have been a change in expectations. Am I missing something, or are these models not including a change in expectations due to the virus? What do people think the change would be?
J.
He’s not the first person who’s had a problem with the “e word”
https://youtu.be/0Izte_kJ6vE?t=2191
Something tells me he won’t be the last either. I’m about to get sauced Menzie, remember these moments of kindness if I make dumb comments later tonight, ok?
Does anyone know how to get emoticons to actually work in this freak’n blog?? (NO, I’m not sauced yet, and I wanna know) Did someone try to do an eggplant emoticon in here once and chaos ensued, er something??
I don’t really think his op-ed says very much.
He writes: “What more people are saying is that as we learn more about COVID-19, we should evaluate the total societal cost of this awful disease and try to put things into perspective.”
Well, ok.
“Imagine the potential psychological and human toll if this shutdown continues indefinitely, unemployment reaches 20% or higher, as some now predict, and we sink into a deep recession or depression.”
I think that’s right, too. We can only shut down the economy so long before the cure is worse than the disease. But he’s not making much of a point here.
“Social distancing polices make sense because no one wants to overwhelm our health care system to the point of failure. Social distancing should continue until this outbreak is under control.”
Well, ok.
“Nonetheless, much of our economy must stay open to provide life’s basic necessities. Rather than announcing general shutdowns and drawing up lists of “essential” business that can remain open, let’s draw up lists of “nonessential” businesses that pose a risk for coronavirus spread.
“A commonsense approach would be to keep those shut down and to provide financial support to their employees, and the businesses or organizations themselves, so they can reopen and rehire when the threat subsides.”
I think I agree with this. But it’s all pretty vague. It all seems to come down to whether we close everything down and allow exceptions, or leave everything open with exceptions. Each of those policies could produce exactly the same outcome, and I think people have a sense of what’s essential.
In the end, I’m not entirely sure why he wrote the op-ed to begin with. There’s not much to it, one way or the other.
“The 2017-18 flu season was exceptionally bad, with 61,000 deaths attributed to it. Can you imagine the panic if those mortality statistics were attributed to a new virus and reported nonstop?”
well those statistics are going to look very acceptable based on what we are going to see. this guy is a moron. the op-ed was useless. notice there was nothing in the op-ed that really provided a solution. i expect more from our elected leaders. every day i am let down.
The nonsense choice between a general shutdown and a non-essential shutdown is a dog-whistle to his contributor base – “I’d kill some workers for your sake.” This is not new. It is the same message as “repeal Obamacare” and votes against food aid for children. The overall uselessness and and bland tone of his piece is camouflage for the pledge of murderous fealty.
It’s interesting that seven of the NBER working papers were written long before anyone ever heard of COVID-19, so there’s very little excuse for policy makers to have been so completely caught off guard.
Notice that Sen. Ron Johnson has an accounting background, which probably explains why he is so utterly confused about debt in the context of macroeconomics. Accountants are not economists.
Sweden Decides to Let Coronavirus to Run Its Course in Country Without Destroying Its Economy or Future
Sweden is taking a different approach in battling the coronavirus pandemic.
The country remains open for business and life goes on as usual with few restrictions.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/sweden-decides-to-let-coronavirus-play-out-in-country-without-destroying-its-economy-or-future/
Johnson is beginning to give the late Joe McCarthy a run for his money as the worst Wisconsin senator of all time.
What is in the water in the upper Midwest anyway? The elected extremes make no sense.
Bozo: The Ron Johnson?
Senator Johnson only used the 2017-2018 flu as his answer while ignoring the 1918-1919 Spanish flu that came in three waves simply people did not practice physical distancing in part due to the war effort in Europe. He doesn’t even bother to read up on it.
Good thing he was ignored.