Wisconsin Q2 GDP

Wisconsin GDP declined by 32.6% (SAAR) in 2020Q2, compared to 31.4% for the US. BEA’s release today notes Wisconsin’s Q/Q growth in Q2 ranked 35th.

Moreover, Wisconsin GDP has fallen further since the 2019Q4 peak as defined by NBER.

Figure 1: US GDP (black), and Wisconsin GDP (teal), both in Ch.2012$ SAAR, in logs 2019Q4=0. Source: BEA, and author’s calculations.

The sectoral distribution of the decline is not too dissimilar to that nation-wide. Manufacturing takes a slightly bigger hit — 13.5% decline in Wisconsin vs. 13% nationwide — reflecting Wisconsin’s greater manufacturing intensity.

Figure 2: Wisconsin GDP originating in manufacturing (blue), retail (red) and accommodation and food services (green), in Ch.2012$, in logs 2019Q4=0. Source: BEA, author’s calculations.

That’s Wisconsin; here’s the US:

Figure 3: US GDP originating in manufacturing (blue), retail (red) and accommodation and food services (green), in Ch.2012$, in logs 2019Q4=0. Source: BEA, author’s calculations.

Accommodation and food services accounts for only about 2.5% of Wisconsin GDP on average, so the drop in that sector shouldn’t be taken as a collapse in the Wisconsin economy. However, it accounts for a larger share of employment, roughly 8% pre-Covid19; hence, there should be a lot of concern regarding employment outcomes here.

Figure 4: Wisconsin share of GDP originating in accommodation and food services (black), employment share in accommodation and foods services (red). Q3 observation for employment for July and August only. Source: BEA, BLS, and author’s calculations.

One particularly troubling aspect is the drop in government spending on goods and services (this number excludes transfers).

Figure 5: Wisconsin total government spending (Federal, military, state and local) (black), and state and local (red), both in million Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA.

As tax revenues remain at depressed levels, the failure of the Federal government to provide aid to the states will increasingly constrain further spending, heightening the hardship faced by average Wisconsinites.

10 thoughts on “Wisconsin Q2 GDP

  1. macroduck

    Off-topic political gibberish warning….

    The same ballots which Trump will contest in the presidential election include votes for U.S. Senate and House candidates, state legislative candidates, state secretaries of state and governors. Any court battle over the presidency will also delay and contest results in other elections.

    There is an argument being made that a new Congress could become involved in resolving the presidential contest, but that assumes a new Congress can be sworn in.

    There is a special incentive to contest state elections this year. Next year, state legislatures will draw redistricting maps in many states. Redistricting is important not just in the power balance in states and in the U.S. House, but also to the job prospects of individual legislators. That balance, in turn, will affect state judicial appointments. Huge incentive to overturn the will of the people.

    The point being that the focus of concern in battles over ballots is too narrow. The incentive to do battle in courts is large for more reasons than Trump’s need to stay out of jail (and, apparently, out of bankruptcy court).

    A “trifecta”, one party holding both chambers of the state legislature as well as the governorship is needed to gerrymander in most cases. Divided government, on the other hand, is most likely to lead to un-gerrymandering. The GOP has done the best job of gerrymandering in the past two redistrictings, so has most to lose and thus the biggest incentive to disrupt elections. At present there are 24 Democratic governors and 26 Republican governors, a better mix for Democrats than for the last two redistrictings, bad for Republicans.

    One outcome of un-gerrymandering could be more competitive districts, both in House elections and in state legislative elections. That would reduce the number of ultra-partisan goons in elective office. Hallelujah.

    1. macroduck

      While I’m busy hijacking an economic post with political nonsense….

      Mark Meadows claims Trump is full of energy and doing his job, despite being a Covid-infected loser. Mark Meadows is a notorious liar.

      Trump cancelled a video appearance today. Quarantine doesn’t require staying out from in front of cameras. Trump may be sicker than he wants to admit. He may sound sicker than he wants to seem, what with his image-driven schtick at risk if he wheezes. Odds are, we will hear more from insiders soon about the actual state of Trump’s health.

      Anyhow, at this late date Trump’s campaign strategy, which relies on personal appearances, can’t be effectively changed. He’s miserably behind overall and looking bad in swing states. I’ll bet he’ll break quarantine if his symptoms really are light.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Here’s what I’m thinking at this moment related to the orange creature~~~he probably pulls out of it (the virus), but it’s going to be worse on Sunday than it is on today, this Friday. And if he gets weak and refuses to turn over power, it’s an extremely dangerous situation as it relates to national security and the nation’s defense. I’m amazed at how many people haven’t discussed (I don’t have cable TV, so…..) how close Melania trump was to Joe Biden, neither of whom was wearing a mask, and TV percepetions of distance and depth can fool you, but it looked like when Melania crossed the stage, she wasn’t 4 feet away from Biden. That was another, of MANY dumb moves by the DNC to let her walk diagonal across the stage,

        Just two words here : Herman Cain

      2. 2slugbaits

        macroduck My niece (and goddaughter) is a Navy doctor at Walter Reed and went to one of the top medical schools in the world. When she was a pre-med student she had an internship under Dr. Fauci at the NIAID Rockville campus. And that’s typical of the talent at Walter Reed. The medical expertise at Walter Reed/Bethesda is top flight and quite possibly the best anywhere in the world. And it’s also government run healthcare. Fox News viewers might want to ask themselves why President Trump, who could have gone to any private hospital and used private health insurance, instead chose to rely upon some pinko-socialist, taxpayer funded, government run healthcare. Just something they might want to ask themselves as they watch those insufferable RNCC political ads that pollute the airwaves.

        1. pgl

          There is a lot of confusion on Trump’s health coming from Walter Reed. Trump’s doctor presented a rosy picture but could not answer the most basic questions. Others at Walter Reed are painting a different picture, which may explain why he was given Remdesvir. Why all the secrecy unless we have already become North Korea?

          1. macroduck

            Secrecy allows the story to change with political need. Facts matter only in as much as they may become known publicly and trip up the propaganda. The risk of facts getting loose serves as a limit on lies. Secrecy works to reduce the leakage of reality into public knowledge.

            But you knew that.

          2. Willie

            We have to practice old fashioned Kremlinolgy. If Trump expires, will white smoke get sucked into Walter Reed? The mind boggles at what is happening and the confused information we are getting.

            The most telling clue is the lack of tweets.

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ pgl
            I’m assuming it came out AFTER your comment, but they have released video of the orange creature from the hospital, where he says he’s feeling better than when he arrived at Walter Reed. I’ll let readers decide if that’s good news or bad news.

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