The increase of 307 thousand in private nonfarm payrolls (as reported by ADP) — under Bloomberg expectations of 410 thousand — suggests further deceleration in employment growth.
Figure 1: Month-on-month growth rate (not annualized, in log terms) in private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS October release (black), Bloomberg consensus for November as of 12/2 (teal square), ADP November release (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
Month-on-month growth rates for ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment growth decelerated from 0.34% to 0.26% (in log terms; 4.1% to 3.1% annualized). The implied deceleration in BLS reported private NFP is from 0.75% to 0.48%, using the Bloomberg consensus for November. (9.0% to 5.8% annualized).
There is a widening gap between the ADP measure of private NFP and the BLS measure. Both measures remain far below NBER peak levels, however. The November ADP private NFP is 7.5% below peak (7.8% in log terms).
Figure 2: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS October release (black), Bloomberg consensus for November as of 12/2 (teal square), ADP November release (red), all on log scale. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
I noticed that an intervention model showed a forecast change of 392 for November 2020. Same model shows a change of 245 for December 2020.
AS What is the intervention event?
The intervention event was the Covid19 impact on employment for April 2020. I used a pulse dummy for 2020m04, using FRED data and EViews input: D(nppttl) d(dum) d(nppttl(-1)) AR(1) AR(2). Bowerman, et al have a good discussion on intervention models at the edge of my level in “Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression, 4th ed.” Upon review, I notice that the forecast for November was 399, not 392. The model struggled for accuracy for months of July, August and September, but October seemed pretty good. Perhaps accuracy will carry over to November.
@ AS
Interesting. Please keep us posted on how it turns out, and what you thought the strengths/weaknesses were of the model for November and December. I think it could be very illuminating.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/australia-wine-international-solidarity-scli-intl/index.html
Not related but of interest if you like Australian wine and/or you are interested in the effect of Chinese tariffs. I was writing something on this topic involving the boring aspect of customs valuation and transfer pricing when I saw this interesting story.
We have great wines Mate!
The Commos are saying with a straight face highly priced wines are being dumped into China
Which ones you export to USA?? I prefer something over 12% please. At least 1 Liter bottle and cheap. Flavor after the second glass is a very minimal consideration.
: )
I managed to get a Hill of Grace Shiraz in Sydney before the price shot through the roof. One of the best bottles of wine I ever had, mate.
It is a very good drop. My favourite is the Rosemont Balmoral Syrah.
Quite easily the best red down under!
The Aussies are making some really good wines of late.
That’s the spirit! Drink foreign wines.
pgl is a true American patriot!!! And Trump totally approves his Support!
Hey moron – I just bought a bottle of California wine. Robert Mondavi is excellent. Oh wait – I was supposed to buy some New York wine according to my internet stalker. But I should thank you for another really BORING comment.
JohnH drinks Trump wine:
https://www.trumpwinery.com/
BTW – Virginia wines generally suck. But leave it to the moron named JohnH to pay premium prices for crap wine!
Some are good, with Pollock the best, also produced near Charlottesville. The grapes that do best in VA are Cab Franc for red and Viognier for white, although some others do OK in some areas. A lot of VA wines not good, but some are quite good. Main problem with them is that they tend to be overpriced for their quality.
The Trump wine vineyard was previously owned by the wealthy Klug family. Supposedly their wines were reasonably good, although overpriced. Reportedly Eric Trump for once was not a complete idiot and kept most of the previous staff on, so quality may not have fallen off too much. But for obvious reasons I have not tried it, nor did I have any of it back when the Klugs owned it.
Probably the vineyard that is pretty respectable that one can find most easily outside of VA is Barbour. Apparently UK imports a non-trivial amount of VA wines. They are improving over time, but really need to get their prices down some.
OK – they have some decent wines. But I still prefer Finger Lakes (upstate NY).
pgl,
Finger Lakes really good for certain whites, especially Riesling, all better than anything in VA. Best of VA is really some of the reds, with Pollock Meritage really outstanding.
We Americans need to take a step back and maybe help Australian wine producers who have just been hit with tariffs > 200% by China – their main export market:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/politicians-urge-people-to-buy-australian-wine-in-defiance-of-china/ar-BB1bz8zY?ocid=uxbndlbing
Maybe Americans will get a price break on a nice bottle of Australian wine. Drink up!
https://newsaf.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-03/UK-first-country-to-roll-out-Pfizer-BioNTech-vaccine-VU6BkegOzu/index.html
December 3, 2020
UK first country to roll out Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine
Britain on Wednesday became the first western country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine for general use, announcing a rollout of Pfizer-BioNTech’s jab from next week in a major advance for humanity’s fightback against the coronavirus.
The green light for the vaccine developed by American drugmaker Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech comes as the virus surges again in the United States and Europe, putting pressure on hospitals and morgues in some places and forcing new rounds of restrictions that have devastated economies.
Britain’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) granted emergency use approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which they say is 95 percent effective in preventing illness, in record time – just 23 days since Pfizer published the first data from its final-stage clinical trial.
“Everybody can be confident that no corners whatsoever have been cut,” Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) chief executive June Raine told a news conference.
“The public deserves nothing less,” she said, stressing her agency’s certification process was no different to counterparts in the United States and the European Union….
[ Proper collaboration between health authorities in Britain, America and the European Union strikes me as approving the vaccine for general use next week in America and the EU right along with British use. ]
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/europe/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-approved-uk.html
December 2, 2020
U.K. Approves Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccine, a First in the West
The emergency approval, ahead of the United States and the European Union, clears the way for Britain to begin mass inoculations. “Help is on its way,” one official said.
By Benjamin Mueller
[ Dean Baker has long been criticizing the absence of collaboration on work towards vaccine development and administration. I only hope mass inoculations will shortly begin here. ]
ADP hasn’t been that great.
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 11 and 6 of the 21 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile. Mexico, with more than 1 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 11th highest number of cases among all countries. Mexico is now the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 coronavirus deaths.
December 1, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 835) *
Brazil ( 816)
Argentina ( 858)
Colombia ( 723)
Mexico ( 818)
Peru ( 1,087)
Chile ( 804)
Ecuador ( 760)
Bolivia ( 763)
* Descending number of cases
December 1, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 1,434)
Spain ( 964)
Italy ( 933)
UK ( 868)
US ( 835)
France ( 819)
Mexico ( 818)
Sweden ( 671)
Switzerland ( 569)
Netherlands ( 550)
Luxembourg ( 524)
Portugal ( 449)
Ireland ( 417)
Austria ( 368)
Canada ( 322)
Greece ( 231)
Germany ( 207)
Denmark ( 146)
India ( 100)
Finland ( 72)
Norway ( 61)
Australia ( 35)
Japan ( 17)
Korea ( 10)
China ( 3)
It’s going to be a long winter. That’s all there is to it. The good news is that a vaccine appears to be at least somewhat close to distribution. The bad news is that most of the population won’t have one until June or later. For now, the pandemic is chewing through the population like a swarm of locusts in a wheat field. I’m hoping it abates a bit soon. Even if this wave of the pandemic eases up, the economy won’t recover much. I don’t see much improvement until Moscow Mitch decides to quit being an intestinal blockage in the Senate. Until that happens, it’s a long winter for economic as well as pandemic reasons.
No, 100 million people will likely be vaccinated by June. With the most high risked first. It is essentially over by April 1st.
TR,
Standard estimate for herd immunity is 70% vaccinated. Your forecast is that by June we’ll have less than a third of the population (100 million) vaccinated. That suggests we shall have much less by April 1, meaning we shall be very far from 70% by then. It may be gettting better, but no way it will “be over” by then.
Well, it’s an not unreasonable postulate that approximately a quarter to a third of the population has been already infected, and are now carrying antibodies. While we don’t know the calculus of infection very accurately, its quite possible that by June we will have hit that 70% threshold of “protected” individuals not by vaccination but by the infection rate of the virus in the general public. (Which by the way is a low ball estimate of what constitutes a sufficient level for widespread reduction of risk.)
And of course, we still don’t know how lasting the vaccines will be, or the antibodies created due to contracting the disease…
“Well, it’s an not unreasonable postulate that approximately a quarter to a third of the population has been already infected”
Mathchallenged? If you have 30% infection of the population within 9 months you would see how many deaths?
The IFR is in the 0.5-1.0 % range, you are lucky if 10% of the US population has been infected.
it will take a lot more than 100 million, since it needs to go world wide
nd thst number is over 7 billion
7 billion people with 2 doses per person. Think 14 billion doses.
Dude, 100 million just in the us. Literalky, Menzie, remove that guys post for his own ignorance.
100 million doses covers 50 million Americans. I guess you did not know there are some 330 million Americans alone. Move along idiot.
No, I don’t think so. First, 100 million is only a third of Americans, let alone the world. Second, there are plenty of us who are at the back of the line for a whole lot of reasons. I’m not likely to go back to normal mask-less anything until it’s pretty clear that I’m vaccinated and so are nearly all the people around me. There’s no way to know who has had an asymptomatic infection before vaccination, so we may end up vaccinating people who have had infections. And, since there’s evidence that a prior infection doesn’t protect you, those who have been infected in the past will probably need the vaccine. It will be sometime late summer before we see big improvements. That’s my best, non-technical, analysis and estimate.
Just so you understand completely that I’m not an alarmist, I was getting on airplanes for work up until mid-November when things went out of control again. I’ll probably go back to travel for work when things die down again. I take precautions, but the risk is there. My personal risk tolerance is one thing. The economy is another, and it depends on our collective risk tolerance.
I’m looking at the weak civilian labor force numbers. The October number was almost identical to the August number, so it seems like the economy hasn’t been able to tease people back into the labor force despite increasing employment numbers. The folks that are finding jobs represent the low hanging fruit in the potential labor force. To put things in perspective, according to the household survey data the headline unemployment rate for October came in at 6.9 percent; however, if you fix the civilian labor force at its pre-pandemic February 2020 peak, the unemployment rate would still be at 9 percent. People exiting the labor force account for 2.1 percentage points of the fall in the unemployment rate. Will the November numbers show an increase in the civilian labor force? I dunno, but it strikes me as unlikely.
I wouldn’t make those adjustments. You could do that in any previous recession. Participation rates are a laggard. Even more with people staying socially distanced.
The Rage I think the data suggests that there’s something very unique about the relationship between changes in employment and changes in the civilian labor force. Sometimes it’s best to explain things with a picture, so here you go:
http://missionaryworkamongsavages.blogspot.com/2020/12/post-takes-historical-look-at.html
Is there any mainstream media or economic websites discussing this?? Surely this is such an anomaly it is causing discussion in different places??
Not that I know of, but then again that’s why God created research grad students.
It just kind of struck me. Because it’s a key statistic, and usually something like this draws headlines and discussion.
As might have been guessed, I have nothing constructive to add here, other than I like this post.
We do have some possible candidates for good vaccines. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel. If no one you love has been lost yet~~~ STAY DILIGENT!!!!! wear masks, wash hands with quality soap, when going around town bring that hand sanitizer in your car. Lysol wipes (or similar substitute) for your car’s steering wheel!!! Lysol wipes for the grocery cart!!!! Avoid outings where it’s in tight quarters inside small rooms/structures. Wouldn’t the saddest thing of all be lasting this long avoiding the virus, and then get lax in the last few weeks (July?? August??) when the vaccine became available to the masses??
The scientific/rationality based message from the President-Elect Biden is FINALLY being sent out!!!! Listen and take heart/faith in that. And phone friends and family and reinforce that message—what your life will be like when they are GONE because they didn’t wear their mask. If they don’t give a damn about themselves remind them of their children and nieces and nephews. Your immune system will probably handle the virus if you’re under 50, your grandma’s won’t~~~so you have to act in ways that protect the people you regularly interact with in person. Do you want an accidental (but VERY preventable) death on your conscience??? I’ve had enough F-ups already in my life—I don’t need someone’s death being one of them.
@ Menzie
I thought you would take an interest in this on a personal level Menzie. I leave it to your better judgement and the vibe you like to emit from the blog whether you post the comment or not, But I hope you will watch it and enjoy it yourself. It is a video news story about Artemisia Gentileschi,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LPsJ9SBi-0
It’s my hope you enjoy it in one of your more quiet moments.
While eating pepperoni slices, drink Venom black cherry energy drink, listening to the great drum sound of Eternal Rot’s “Cadaverine” album, a random thought occurs to me: “Where will the prices of foods go over the next 3–6 months, and if they barely drop at all, does this prove the ‘theory of price stickiness’ ??”
And I’m not even talking about corn syrup at all [ rimshot ]
December 2, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 14,313,941)
Deaths ( 279,865)
India
Cases ( 9,533,471)
Deaths ( 138,657)
France
Cases ( 2,244,635)
Deaths ( 53,816)
UK
Cases ( 1,659,256)
Deaths ( 59,699)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,122,362)
Deaths ( 106,765)
Germany
Cases ( 1,105,832)
Deaths ( 17,812)
Canada
Cases ( 389,775)
Deaths ( 12,325)
China
Cases ( 86,551)
Deaths ( 4,634)
December 2, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 877)
US ( 843)
France ( 824)
Mexico ( 824)
Canada ( 325)
Germany ( 212)
India ( 100)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.5%, 3.6% and 2.4% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-16-new-COVID-19-cases-VUDeWbCKSQ/index.html
December 3, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 16 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland on Wednesday registered 16 new COVID-19 cases, all from overseas, announced the National Health Commission on Thursday.
A total of 6 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 254 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19-related deaths were reported on Wednesday, and 18 patients were discharged from hospitals.
As of Wednesday, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,567, with 4,634 fatalities.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-16-new-COVID-19-cases-VUDeWbCKSQ/img/7d5792aa9b2d44c199daf0281fb47710/7d5792aa9b2d44c199daf0281fb47710.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-16-new-COVID-19-cases-VUDeWbCKSQ/img/22076b41e02342ba9532fe4a667f0564/22076b41e02342ba9532fe4a667f0564.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been 7 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 266 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 6 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
Was I the only person to miss this, or rather the last person to catch it?? Pancreatic—usually a death sentence, you go 5 years after diagnosis you’re a rare bird.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/business/economy/edward-lazear-dead.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/01/opinion/trump-biden-democracy.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-02/can-china-domestic-wine-industry-replace-australian-wine-export/12933766
Update on those Chinese tariffs on imports of Australian wine. It seems China is developing its own grape wine production. I just hope these wines are better than China’s rice wine, which is basically like drinking gasoline.
pgl,
China is actually beginning to produce some decent wines, although they tend to favor different grapes than ones that do best in OZ, e.g. Cab Sauv over Shiraz.
@ pgl
Are you telling me that unlike my ex-GF’s Dad, that this is not an appropriate Christmas gift for you??
https://images.app.goo.gl/iPwsTF2mcFmB958E8
: )
$370? It better be great!
By most westerners standards I would say it’s not. I mean, after X number of glasses you might like it. Otherwise you’re going to be wondering how knowledegble the distilling process was, which seems to be an issue with the harder drinks over there. I assume the beer quality has risen since I was there, but there were some questionable “additives” you have to be watchful for. If you just want to get sauced and don’t care about price or your intestinal tract, uh, it’ll “do the job”.
The substantial improvement in quality of at least some Chinese wines is quite a recent phenomenon, probably happening since the last time you were there, Moses. It was only on my most recent visit just a couple of years ago that I was served something that i considered reasonably decent there, and, no, it was not that $370 a bottle stuff about which I cannot personally comment.
That they are apparently aiming especially at Cav Sauv is not too surprising given all the reports of Chinese buying being a major factor in runups in recent years of top end Bordeaux wines from France.
Cab Sauv. Oh dear, more of my early stage dementia, tsk tsk. What will the taxpayers of Virginia think next?
Really excellent guide:
https://cepr.net/what-to-look-for-in-the-november-jobs-report/
December 2, 2020
PREVIEW: What to Look for in the November Jobs Report
By DEAN BAKER
(The monthly Employment Situation is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, December 4th at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.)
The resurgence of the pandemic is likely to be the biggest factor driving labor market performance in November, especially in a context where most of the CARES Act supports have ended. We are likely to see weak, if any, job growth for the month as the areas most affected by the spread, such as restaurants and hotels, face weaker demand and/or legal restrictions.
Long-Term Unemployment ….
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-12/03/c_139561730.htm
December 3, 2020
Chinese spacecraft takes off from moon with samples
[ http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-12/03/139561730_16070109287671n.jpg ]
BEIJING — A Chinese spacecraft carrying the country’s first lunar samples blasted off from the moon late Thursday, the China National Space Administration announced.
This represented the first-ever Chinese spacecraft to take off from an extraterrestrial body.
China’s Chang’e-5 probe, comprising an orbiter, a lander, an ascender and a returner, was launched on Nov. 24, and its lander-ascender combination touched down on the north of the Mons Rumker in Oceanus Procellarum, also known as the Ocean of Storms, on the near side of the moon on Dec. 1.
After the samples were collected and sealed, the ascender of Chang’e-5 took off from the lunar surface, and is expected to complete unmanned rendezvous and docking with the orbiter-returner in lunar orbit, an unprecedented feat.
Chang’e-5 is one of the most complicated and challenging missions in Chinese aerospace history, as well as the world’s first moon-sample mission in more than 40 years.
ltr,
Very admirable this Chinese success at bringing back lunar samples.
So, when will you tout the Japanese success at bringing back a sample from an asteroid, something no nation has pulled off, and thus, frankly, more impressive than what China has just done?
Trying to decide if this comment by Junior qualifies as “race-baiting” or not. I actually found this to be one of commenter ltr’s less annoying comments, because it is actually something they can be proud of. I’d prefer if ltr didn’t use government run websites, but based on other outlets it all appears to be factually verifiable.
Either way, I don’t think it’s the proper time to make a comment like this, unless a person starved for attention is just prodding at the bear’s ribs.
“race baiting” Are you out of your mind, Moses? You are really getting desperate to find things to poke at me about, given that you keep falling on your face with one ridiculous attempt after another. Your effort to suggest that somehow I am not well-informed about geopolitics seriously bombed, especially after you called Gabbard “Senator” and had her meeting with insurgents in Aleppo with Assad.
As it is, most people consider the Chinese and the Japanese to be of the same race, so noting that the Japanese have also at this time made an achievement similar to the one that ltr has now bragged about several times here, with the one by the Japanese in fact arguably more impressive, does not exactly seem to be “race baiting.” Do yiou actually think the Chinese and Japanese are from different races? Just how stupid or ignorant are you, Moses? Have you been drinking too much cheap wine again?
@ Barkley Junior
I’ll let your comment speak for itself.
Probably wise of you, Moses, given that you have something unpleasant all over your face and nothing you could say on this matter would improve the situation for you.
Uh oh, ltr might show up to complain that “unpleasant” is bad language I should not use! Send me to a Chinese reeducation camp!!!
@ Barkley Junior
You can call it “race-baiting” or you can call it “nationalities-baiting”, or you can just call it the behavior of a person with little or zero personal character. Either way, I think the general audience knows who the supreme A$$ here is. You also made a comment on another blog related to Asian Indians winning a Nobel Prize, which I thought spoke volumes about your true inner voice.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/10/will-win-nobel-prize-economics-year.html?commentID=159862965
If ltr has legitimate and well-justified pride about something his government achieved, literally inside of the last week, related to science and space exploration, what exactly is the point you were making?? You in fact made no point, your ostensible goal was to rile someone up for the most base reasons. There was no point in relating a success in China (that happened very recently) to Japan other than pouring salt over old wounds. Are you proud of yourself?? Is that the behavior your PhD instilled in you??
https://www.reuters.com/article/france-usa-tax/france-to-seek-eu-riposte-if-u-s-punishes-french-digital-tax-idUSKBN28B4QW
Please tell me that Trump is not about to start a trade war with France:
“France will immediately seek European Union retaliation if Washington goes ahead in January with planned trade sanctions over a French tax on digital services, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Tuesday. The Trump administration announced in July additional duties of 25% on French cosmetics, handbags and other imports valued at $1.3 billion in response to France’s digital services tax, but said it would hold off on implementing the move until January.”
Look I do not care about cosmetics or those overpriced handbags from LVMH but please no tariffs on French wine. Then again Australia’s trade war with China might cause a little competition here for Robert Mondavi.
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 11 and 6 of the 21 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile. Mexico, with more than 1 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 11th highest number of cases among all countries. Mexico is now the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 coronavirus deaths.
December 2, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 843) *
Brazil ( 819)
Argentina ( 863)
Colombia ( 726)
Mexico ( 824)
Peru ( 1,088)
Chile ( 805)
Ecuador ( 764)
Bolivia ( 763)
* Descending number of cases
December 2, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 1,446)
Spain ( 979)
Italy ( 944)
UK ( 877)
US ( 843)
France ( 824)
Mexico ( 824)
Sweden ( 689)
Switzerland ( 581)
Netherlands ( 554)
Luxembourg ( 530)
Portugal ( 456)
Ireland ( 418)
Austria ( 382)
Canada ( 325)
Greece ( 251)
Germany ( 212)
Denmark ( 147)
India ( 100)
Finland ( 74)
Norway ( 65)
Australia ( 35)
Japan ( 17)
Korea ( 10)
China ( 3)
Barkley knows more about wine from Virginia than I do but check out this interview with Patricia Kluge:
https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/politics/a12026751/patricia-kluge-trump-winery-interview/
“The wine is not good anymore,” Patricia Kluge, whose beloved Virginia winery and vineyard Donald Trump bought at a foreclosure auction in 2011, told me over the phone on Thursday afternoon …. Kluge, for her part, was not surprised: “He lies a lot, and he knows that, and everybody knows that, but he can’t stop himself,” she said. “All of us who have known Donald in New York for a long time have always known that, and you have to find a way of working around it because it’s part of his makeup.” I asked Kluge about her impression of Trump during the sale compared to today. “It’s absolutely consistent,” she said. “He would talk about running for president to my lawyers at the time and we all thought it was a joke—clearly it wasn’t a joke.”
Uh oh, Moses will be on me for misspelling her last name, more early stage dementia on my part, and missing that she now thinks the wine is no good, although Eric Trump has kept the place looking nice. Another matter of controversy about the vineyard is that they were accused of hiring illegal immigrants, something not uncommon in VA wineries I think. I admit I am curious about what the darned wines do taste like, but not going to buy any.
@ Barkley Junior
It’s rare that I dog people for spelling errors, as I make too many spelling errors of my own (on a keyboard anyway). However, when said person has been informed of the spelling error, on a deceased person’s name, working in their own profession, 3 separate times, informed by two different commenters and goes on making the same error—yes I will “call them out”. And I’m happy to pull the thread up if you’d like to refute any of those points. That doesn’t include the time you claimed an economist named Auerbach had died who was very much alive. Which I didn’t “correct” you on but gave you the “out” of correcting yourself after a comment prompt. That’s called courtesy, something an extreme narcissist such as yourself has a hard time grasping. And I never “called you out” on it. Until now, but…you insist, so….we must play the game your way…… as always.
I also have had the “severe embarrassment” of being corrected by a person who has laughingly little knowledge on geopolitics that I was mistakenly calling a U.S. House Representative a “Senator” which she is not. I semi-happily corrected my bad error. Amazingly, after the metaphorical version of a face palm, I was still able to eat breakfast and lunch today. and have fully recovered. How long narcissists hold on to the sting of being corrected on the spelling of a dead colleague’s name (3 times after being informed of the error) I can’t say, but I do have one “case study” going on now, that you’ve been helpful with Barkley.
But you forget to tell us what variety of wine you are having for dinner. I’m doing stir fried chicken for dinner so it is back to Robert Mondavi Chardonnay unless I venture in the cold looking for a Finger Lakes Riesling!
I have a feeling this is a rhetorical query to be funny at my expense. BUT…….. Only the cheap stuff for me. Nothing anyone would be taking notes about. I’m pretty certain you would turn your nose away. I like stuff that is cheap “and gets to the point”. I’ve even been known to take the most rotgut of liquor and add it to cranberry juice or something to cut it some. And as I drink through the night less and less fruit juice gets added. I have a kind of “psychological” addiction, and if I drink more than once very 10 days (right now I drink about once every 3 weeks) I wouldn’t know exactly where things would go from there. And I don’t choose because “it goes good with such and such meat”. I drink to drink pure and simple.
Moses,
You may think that I have “laughlngly little knowledge of geopolitics” but I am coauthor of the most widely used comparative economics textbook in the world, now in its third edition from MIT Press, not known for putting out shoddy books. Most of the book is case studies of particular national economies in different parts of the world.
But, of course, those studies were weitten with “laughilngly little knowledge of geoplitics..” Obvouislyi all those faculty members around the world who have adopted the book for their students did so for its humorous elements.
Comparative Economics in a Transforming World Economy, 3rd edn. MIT Press, 2018, also get used as a textbook in quite a few grad courses in international relations around the world, which usually are taught in poli sci departments. Of course all those poli sci profs teaching such courses are selecting it because it shows “laughingly little knowledge of geopolitics,” LOL.
Here’s a breakdown of all the Christian charity work Neera Tanden has done to help the poor and lower middle class in America:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/05/neera-tanden-biden-omb-cap/
Obviously all of this charity work Ms. Tanden does is “inspired by her mother”.
Moses Herzog: I plead guilty to having at one time worked for (and been a guest scholar at) the Brookings Institution, which has received monies from corporate interests and foreign organizations.
Menzie, Bro, you know (or should know by now) I respect you and I respect your ethics. But you’re stretching credulity to compare Brookings to “CAP”. Now I will admit I haven’t gone down the list of Brookings contributors, so maybe I’m about to get my hat handed to me. But I’m willing to wager Brookings hasn’t taken money from the Saudi government, or Bain. And I’ve forgotten some of the others mentioned, those two alone are enough to turn my stomach, but there were some others there. It smells Menzie, and it’s not a pleasant smell.
For the record I also have a high regard and high level of respect for Prof Hamilton (which somehow I imagine it meaning very little to him, and that’s fair as well). But I just wish he wouldn’t associate with folks like Hoover. I don’t blink an eye when guys like Stephen Moore, Peter Wallison, Phil Gramm, Kudlow etc ad nauseam play footsie at Hoover. It is because I respect James Hamilton’s ethics and hold him to a high standard in my mind that makes it all the more bothersome.
Something about Neera Tanden is that indeed she has raised a lot of corporate and foreign money for CAP. However, the word is that she has made it clear to all donors that they cannot expect any quid pro quo and reportedly CAP has done numerous studies that do not accord with the interests of various donors. She simply does not accept money from donors that do not agree to go along with this.
This is part of her toughness, some of the manifestations of which you do not like, such as punching some guy in the chest and getting really feisty with a lot of people on both the left and the right on Twitter. A lot of this would make for a good OMB director, but you are too bothered by her poking at Berniebros and Twitter to see past all that.
Sorry, Moses, but if she gets to be OMB director, which is highly questionable given how many are down on her case, she will not be out to cut Social Security or kowtow to the Saudis, your fantasies to the contrary.
Actually, if you want to be useful and complain about an appointment who looks much worse than she is, look at Brian Deese for NEC, who is going under the radar given all the focus on Tanden. He is much worse than she is in my view, and somehow that position has become more important for economic policy than either CEA Chair or OMB director.
Am I allowed to correct myself and say I was wrong ?? (I need to consult my “Barkley Junior Handbook on Personal Ethics”. Didn’t he say you’re never to do that??)
I was wrong.
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/us/politics/foreign-powers-buy-influence-at-think-tanks.html
Put this under the “I’m not comforted by this” category, and also a checkmark by “Two wrongs don’t make a right”.
Every time Neera Tanden talks about her mother, I get a tear in my eye. Really, fighting for the little guy takes up every moment of this woman’s waking hours:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/05/neera-tanden-bullying-joe-biden-cabinet
I just hope all of her ideas to cut Social Security get “enacted” before it goes insolvent. Ms. Tanden didn’t work her way “out of the ghetto” to fail al of us now.