Economic Report of the President, 2021

Is out, here.

The policy inclusive forecast from CEA, as compared to the official forecast in the FY2021 budget proposal, and the WSJ January survey:

Figure 3: GDP as reported in 2020Q3 3rd release (black), Administration FY2021 forecast (and MSR) (red square), WSJ January survey mean (blue circle), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2020Q3 3rd release, OMB, January WSJ surveyEconomic Report of the President, 2021, and author’s calculations.

These projections…

assume passage of additional legislation to provide for reauthorization and expansion of the Paycheck Protection Program to support small business employment, an expanded employee retention tax credit, a reemployment bonus, and a temporary extension of targeted fiscal support to State and local governments, schools, and low- and middle-income households and households with unemployed workers.

In the near term, the economic targets reported here also assume enactment
of the President’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure proposal, as analyzed in the 2018 Economic Report of the President. They also assume that all provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to sunset or expire are instead made permanent.

The economic targets also assume enactment of skills-based immigration reform, a continuation of the Administration’s comprehensive deregulatory agenda, improved bilateral trade agreements with major trading partners, and longer-run fiscal consolidation, as discussed in the 2020 Economic Report of the President. They further assume additional labor market policies to incentivize higher labor force participation, including expanding work requirements for nondisabled, working-age recipients in noncash welfare programs; increasing childcare assistance for low-income families; and enhancing assistance for reskilling programs

Here is the relevant Table:



26 thoughts on “Economic Report of the President, 2021

  1. Moses Herzog

    First, as it’s online and it’s easy to have misunderstandings, I want to delineate this is not intended as a criticism, specifically is NOT a criticism of the blog host. Now with that out of the way, What is my incentive to read this?? Is this like visiting the dentist’s chair, and if I find X number of errors in the text at the end I get a treat out of the box for enduring the excruciating pain??

    1. pgl

      No – go ahead and read pages 3 through 6 which appears to be written by Donald God Almighty Trump. Yes he brought heaven to earth. Read it for the chuckles as it is really beyond anything even The Onion could come up with.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I presume this is where Barkley Junior sourced most of his model data for the “V recovery”. I think he said BEA 2nd quarter 2020 was edging towards slightly positive, so I can’t think of anywhere else but this annual where he was getting his input data from. Maybe it was Neera Tanden, future head of OMB (and renowned master of legal footnotes)?? It’s rumored she’s teaching Junior gongfu on the weekends for his walks in the rough sections of Massanetta Springs. She’s afraid a brown person might ask Junior a difficult question about 2003–2011 Iraq war policy and he’s going to have to have that gongfu move as second nature.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Wow, Mose, Macroduck will be really pleased at how you have demonstrated once again what a bully I am. Bully, bully, bully.

  2. joseph

    “In the near term, the economic targets reported here also assume enactment
    of the President’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure proposal, as analyzed in the 2018 Economic Report of the President.”

    Nice job casting shade on the Trump administration, pulling out this quote. Trump has been talking about Infrastructure Week for over three years now. Never made even the slightest effort to do anything about it.

    1. pgl

      If any of Biden’s proposals which are ultimately enacted turn out to have significant economic benefits, Trump will jump in and claim it was his idea. After all – the years of hard work by scientists to get us the COVID 19 vaccines only existed because Donald Trump has the biggest @#$% ever (yea I censored myself there).

      1. Willie

        Who cares what Donald Trump tries to take credit for, anyway? That’s been going on forever. He isn’t taking credit for almost 400K dead Americans, and counting. If there’s a policy that will help this country, Biden should pursue it. Let Trump whine and preen. There’s less than 48 hours to go before he’s 100% irrelevant and it becomes the Biden era.

        I have never understood what infrastructure “week” would get us anyway. We need years of construction. I don’t think we need a national program like the Interstate Highways, but we do need other forms of infrastructure that might take similar lengths of time. Those projects would improve future productivity and would put lots of people to work. I don’t see why those projects couldn’t end up hiring people who would otherwise be out of work miners and the like from dying industries.

  3. ltr

    January 15, 2021



    Cases   ( 24,102,429)
    Deaths   ( 401,856)


    Cases   ( 10,543,659)
    Deaths   ( 152,130)


    Cases   ( 3,316,019)
    Deaths   ( 87,295)


    Cases   ( 2,872,941)
    Deaths   ( 69,949)


    Cases   ( 2,023,779)
    Deaths   ( 46,537)


    Cases   ( 1,588,369)
    Deaths   ( 137,916)


    Cases   ( 695,707)
    Deaths   ( 17,729)


    Cases   ( 87,988)
    Deaths   ( 4,635)

  4. ltr

    January 15, 2021

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    UK   ( 1,282)
    US   ( 1,210)
    France   ( 1,070)
    Mexico   ( 1,064)

    Germany   ( 554)
    Canada   ( 468)
    India   ( 110)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 8.7%, 2.6% and 2.4% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.

  5. ltr

    January 16, 2021

    Chinese mainland reports 130 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland on Friday recorded 130 new COVID-19 cases – 115 local transmissions and 15 from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Saturday.

    Among the domestically infected cases, 90 were reported in northern Hebei Province, 23 in northeastern Heilongjiang Province and 2 in Beijing.

    Seventy-nine new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 670 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No deaths related to COVID-19 were registered on Friday, and 18 patients were discharged from hospitals.

    The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on the Chinese mainland has reached 88,118, and the death toll stands at 4,635.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

  6. Erik Poole

    5.3% real Q4/Q4 GDP growth in 2021?

    Good luck with that. If wishes were fishes. Or is that ‘if wishes were bold assumptions’?

    I expect real, sustainable growth in H2 assuming a greater degree of social cooperation than we have seen so far. Mind you the worry of regime sponsored hold up and obstructionism starts to recede as of 20 January 2021.

    1. pgl

      “If wishes were fishes.”

      Why did this make me laugh? The fellow I took Econometrics from was Taiwanese. What he lacked in English skills he more than made up for in brilliant humor when explaining difficult topics. One of his classics was to talk about the idea of including as an explanatory variable for US GDP “the number of fish in Brazil”. And people say statistics is boring!!!

  7. ltr

    January 15, 2021


    New York

    Cases   ( 1,246,488)
    Deaths   ( 40,641)

    Deaths per million   ( 2,089)


    Cases   ( 459,927)
    Deaths   ( 13,509)

    Deaths per million   ( 1,960)

  8. pgl

    Table 10-3’s forecast of real GDP growth suggests a really strong 2021 recovery followed by real growth rates above the CBO’s forecast of potential real GDP. While I’m not buying this fluff from Trump’s CEA, it would be nice if these forecasts materialize as we will be calling this the Biden boom in 2024.

  9. pgl

    “They also assume that all provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to sunset or expire are instead made permanent.” The full employment act for crooked tax lawyers!

    “The economic targets also assume enactment of skills-based immigration reform”

    Isn’t this Princeton Steve’s agenda. I guess racist border patrols will have jobs!

    “a continuation of the Administration’s comprehensive deregulatory agenda, improved bilateral trade agreements with major trading partners, and longer-run fiscal consolidation”

    More pollution, more of these stupid trade wars, and an end to Social Security and Medicare. What could go wrong?

  10. pgl

    A comment and a question about 3 columns in table 10-3. Notice first the GDP deflator is expected to rise by 2% each year once we get past this pandemic recession. Also notice that the 10-year nominal interest rate is expected to rise from 0.8% to 2.8% over the decade. So real rates are expected to rise from negative 1.2% to 0.8%. OK!

    But why is this saying CPI inflation will be 2.3% while GDP deflator will be only 2% for the entire decade? This would be a heck of a relative price shift.

  11. SecondLook

    Nine to five, as my pal Pareto liked to say, we get 2% real growth give or take a rounding error through the Staggering ’20s; with 80% of that captured by the upper 20%.
    Ne plus change and all that jazz…

  12. pgl

    Is anyone getting emails from It strikes me BTW as a scam organization. Maybe the Republican Party has found a new way of soliciting money from average suckers.

    I got some profile of myself in an email just now which I of course deleted. But I was happy to see that they are saying I am 6 years younger than I really am. Now if they can add 6 inches to my height.

  13. David O'Rear

    As an indicator of how dishonest this analysis is, the graph (I-4, on p. 20) of “Actual Payroll Employment versus August 2016 CBO Projections” – made at a time when November 2020 data was in hand – stops in Q1 2020, and then notes “The 2020:Q1 level assumes the January-February average pace.”
    In other words, as if COVID-19 never happened.

  14. ltr

    Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 13 highest and 6 of the 25 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries.  Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, Peru and Chile.

    Mexico, with more than 1.6 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 13th highest number of cases among all countries.  Peru, with more than 1 million cases, has the 5th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 18th highest number among all countries.  Mexico was the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 and 130,000 coronavirus deaths.

    January 15, 2021

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 1,210) *

    Brazil   ( 976)
    Colombia   ( 935)
    Argentina   ( 996)

    Mexico   ( 1,064)
    Peru   ( 1,164)
    Chile   ( 904)

    Ecuador   ( 802)
    Bolivia   ( 810)

    * Descending number of cases

  15. pgl

    From the table of contents:

    Part I: Confronting the Largest Postwar Economic Shock:
    The Federal Response to Mitigate the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Chapter 1: Creating the Fastest Economic Recovery ……………….. 35
    Chapter 2: Prioritizing America’s Households …………………….. 69
    Chapter 3: Assisting Entrepreneurs and Workers through Aid
    to Businesses ……………………………………. 89
    Chapter 4: Advancing the Quality and Efficiency of America’s
    Healthcare System ……………………………….. 113
    Part II: The Renaissance of American Greatness
    Chapter 5: Assessing the Early Impact of Opportunity Zones………… 145
    Chapter 6: Empowering Economic Freedom by Reducing
    Regulatory Burdens ………………………………. 173
    Chapter 7: Expanding Educational Opportunity through Choice
    and Competition…………………………………. 199
    Chapter 8: Exploring New Frontiers in Space Policy and Property Rights . 225
    Chapter 9: Pursuing Free, Fair, and Balanced Trade……………….. 251
    Part III: An Effort to Rebuild Our Country
    Chapter 10: The Year in Review and the Years Ahead……………….. 287
    Chapter 11: Policies to Secure Enduring Prosperity ………………… 319

    11 chapters of pure fantasy written to flatter Donald John Trump. Perhaps the most worthless ERP ever.

  16. Erik Poole

    @PGL: Yes, one ‘Biden boom’ economic recovery is coming.

    It probably should be called the ‘American Deep State economic recovery’ with the subtitle running something like: The Deep State saves America while the Trump regime does its best to destroy it.

  17. pgl

    I always hated it when Barry Goldwater would say Democrats start wars that Republicans end. But since 1990 Republicans start recessions that Democrats have to clean up after.

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