Movement in Prediction Markets

The impact of news, in the past three hours…


Source: PredictIt, accessed 8pm CT 8/8/2022.


107 thoughts on “Movement in Prediction Markets

  1. Moses Herzog

    August 8th. So the Chinese really are right about the number 8 being a harbinger of good luck and fortune.

  2. ltr

    August 8, 2022

    Did Democrats Just Save Civilization?
    By Paul Krugman

    They really did it. The Inflation Reduction Act, which is mainly a climate change bill with a side helping of health reform, passed the Senate on Sunday; by all accounts it will easily pass the House, so it’s about to become law.

    This is a very big deal. The act isn’t, by itself, enough to avert climate disaster. But it’s a huge step in the right direction, and sets the stage for more action in the years ahead. It will catalyze progress in green technology; its economic benefits will make passing additional legislation easier; it gives the United States the credibility it needs to lead a global effort to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

    There are, of course, cynics eager to denigrate the achievement. Some on the left rushed to dismiss the bill as a giveaway to the fossil fuel industry posing as environmental action. More important, Republicans — who unanimously opposed the legislation — are shouting the usual things they shout: Big spending! Inflation!

    But actual experts on energy and the environment are giddy over what has been accomplished, and serious economists aren’t worried about the effect on inflation.

    Start with the environmental side. Many people I talk to assume that President Biden’s environmental agenda, as contained in his original Build Back Better proposal, must have been greatly watered down in the legislation we actually got. After all, didn’t Democrats have to make big concessions to win over Senator Joe Manchin? Aren’t there important giveaways to fossil fuel interests, like aid for a controversial natural gas pipeline?

    However, energy analysts believe that any adverse climate effect from these concessions will be swamped by the gains from tax credits for clean energy. The REPEAT Project, compiled by Princeton’s ZERO Lab, has produced a side-by-side comparison of emissions cuts under the Inflation Reduction Act and the earlier House version of Build Back Better. By 2035 the I.R.A., they estimate, will have delivered more than 90 percent of the emissions reductions that B.B.B. would have achieved. After all that legislative drama, Biden’s climate policy has emerged essentially intact.

    How was this possible? Right at the beginning, the Biden administration decided that its climate policy would be all carrots, no sticks — that it would provide incentives to do the right thing, not penalties for doing the wrong thing. This strategy, it was hoped, would prove politically feasible in a way that, say, a carbon tax wouldn’t. And this hope has been vindicated….

    1. ltr

      August 8, 2022

      China’s new energy sector moves into high gear amid pursuit for carbon goals

      BEIJING — As construction of large-scale wind and photovoltaic power bases accelerates, China’s new energy sector is expected to have greater growth potential this year amid efforts to achieve “dual carbon” goals.

      In Urumqi, capital of northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the construction of a wind power and photovoltaic base by China Huadian Corporation with a total installed capacity of 1 million kilowatts is progressing in full swing.

      The project, which is among the first batch of large-scale wind and photovoltaic power bases greenlighted by the government, is expected to generate 2.5 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity while saving consumption of 830,000 tonnes of standard coal and reducing carbon emissions of 2.1 million tonnes after completion.

      All of the initial batches of such projects have thus far broken ground. The list of the second batch, which includes bases to be built in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu, has been released.


      Experts believe that the promotion of new energy bases will significantly spur the development of the new energy industry.

      In the first half of 2022, China’s installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power added 12.94 million kilowatts and 30.88 million kilowatts, accounting for 18.7 percent and 44.7 percent of total new capacity, respectively, data from the National Energy Administration showed.

      Driven by the country’s “dual carbon” goals, the new energy sector has become one of the few industries that features a high utilization rate without generating excess capacity, said Jiang Debin, an expert with the China Electricity Council.

      Su Xinyi, an analyst with China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, noted that the new energy sector will continue fast expansion in the second half.

      China’s newly installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power for the entire year is expected to exceed 100 million kilowatts, while the consumption of power produced by the two energy sources is estimated to reach over 12.2 percent of total power consumption, Su said.


      In addition to boosting energy supply capacity, companies plan to double down on investments in projects including ultra-high voltage to improve the efficiency of new energy consumption….

        1. Moses Herzog

          You do know China is a very large country with high energy demands yes?? At least they are moving in the right direction. They don’t have an orange colored apeman on TV promising coal mining regions new jobs while they lose employment in double digits percentages during his presidential term. They have an energy mix. Is it too heavily weighted in coal?? Yes. But it’s not like snapping your fingers.

          Wow, who knew making CoRev pro-renewables was as simple as a single opportunity to attack Asians. I guess tomorrow CoRev will be railing about chemicals in soap when he finds out mainland Chinese take showers.

          1. pgl

            I guess he did not know that China’s population is 4X that of ours:

            August 9, 2022 at 1:42 pm
            Bwahaha, per capita use of coal? China is #1 in total use. (From your own reference)

            Seriously – who gave this insane dog a computer?

          2. CoRev

            Bark, bark, Bwahaha (again). “I guess he did not know that China’s population is 4X that of ours:” And China uses ~6 times our use. (Also from your own reference
            “1) China — 4,320 trillion MMcf
            2) India — 966 trillion MMcf
            3) United States — 731 trillion MMcf
            China per capita us is ~3.27MMcf
            US per capita use is ~ 2.17MMcf Ole Lil Guy isn’t smart enough to do that simple arithmetic. BTW China’s per capita use is 1.55 times the US’s use.

            Ole Lil Guy, If he’s writing he’s lying. BTW, there are rocks, then there’s dumb as a rock.

        2. pgl

          Leave it to CoRev to plot production as opposed to consumption. I guess chasing its tail all day has this rapid dog too confused to see if China is a net importer of coal v. a net exporter of coal. Now when he finally figures this out, maybe this MAGA hat wearing moron can calculated coal consumption per capita by nation. We’ll wait – we have the rest of the summer.

          1. CoRev

            Hey, Bark bark, It’s not me who want to stop use of coal, that’s you and your cohort believing that CO2 is the control knob for climate. So with this you support coal use? ” China is a net importer of coal v. a net exporter of coal. “? Here’s another graph:
            I’ve now shown 2 graphs of China’s coal production vs use.
            Bark, bark also what importance is this: “moron can calculated coal consumption per capita by nation.” to China’s use for electricty generation and its/ltr’s hypocrisy?

            Evidently I have all Summer to wait. So, go for it.

          2. pgl

            August 9, 2022 at 1:31 pm
            Hey, Bark bark, It’s not me who want to stop use of coal”

            I have never said stop all coal use. Maybe reduce our dependence on it. Of course CoRev’s idea of “winning” a debate is to LIE about everything including what I have said.

          3. pgl

            Wow! CoRev managed to find some poorly labeled graph of Chinese coal imports. Of course the assignment was to find a clear measure of consumption per capita. CoRev probably cannot even tie his own shoes AFTER mommy told him how to do it.

          1. CoRev

            Bwahaha, per capita use of coal? China is #1 in total use. (From your own reference) That’s ~4.5 times the use of India, the number 2 user.

          2. pgl

            August 9, 2022 at 1:42 pm

            Another example that demonstrates CoRev has gone insane. He has no clue what any conversation is even about. I’m wondering why his neighbors have not put this rabid dog out of his misery.

        3. ltr

          I don’t know what is more hypocritical. China? Or you for passing on this propaganda.

          [ Would you like to know about Chinese solar, wind, hydro, pumped storage hydro, tidal, blue hydrogen, third or fourth generation nuclear, ultra high-voltage electricity transmission, virtual power plants, electric vehicles, battery storage…? Did you know that China has just completed a carbon-free highway straight through the Taklimakan Desert, and a green freight and passenger rail line running all around the Taklimakan Desert? Did you know about the just completed green freight and passenger rail line running from China through formerly land-locked Laos to Thailand? ]

          1. CoRev

            ltr asks: “Would you like to know about Chinese solar, wind, hydro,…” NO! I already know, thanks. I also know China is the world’s largest user of coal, and its use is still growing. Did you? Did you know that China is the world’s largest creator of atmospheric CO2, and that too is still growing?

            So I repeat: I don’t know what is more hypocritical. China? Or you for passing on this propaganda about China’s implementation of renewable/green technologies?

            Correct me, if you can.

      1. pgl

        Unlike that mad barking dog chasing its own tail (CoRev), my view on this interesting discussion is that China really does need to reduce its carbon foot print so this is good news not something to bark at. Now the US should do the same even if it angers CoRev to the point he barks even more loudly.

    2. ltr

      June 15, 2022

      Low-carbon Day: China tops world in installed offshore wind power
      By Liu Xun

      It’s been almost a decade since China introduced the National Low-carbon Day in 2013. The country announced at the General Debate of the 75th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 22, 2020 that it would aim to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

      In an effort to peak carbon emission and achieve carbon neutrality, China has sped up the production of clean energy sources in recent years and has ranked first in the world in installed offshore wind power capacity, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Natural Resources.

      More than 16.9 million kilowatts of new offshore wind power capacity were connected to the grid in 2021 in China, 4.5 times more than the number in 2020. In addition, nearly 60 percent of China’s electricity consumption growth in the first four months of this year comes from new energy generation.

      In 2022, the country boosted the storage of new energy and hydrogen by launching numerous major projects, including large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases and advanced nuclear power plants.

      By April, the national installed power generation capacity of non-fossil energy reached 1.15 billion kilowatts, up 14.5 percent year on year, with the installed capacity of new energy power generation such as wind power and solar power growing by 20.5 percent year on year.

      Key giant projects of clean energy

      China’s first gigawatt-scale offshore wind farm, Shapa offshore wind project, which was put into operation last year, generated more than one billion kilowatt-hours in March 2022, offsetting around 279,050 tonnes of standard coal.

      Located in the sea off Yangjiang City in south China’s Guangdong Province, the Shapa project was connected to the grid at full capacity on December 25, 2021. With a total installed capacity of 2 gigawatts, the project can provide 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours of clean electricity for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area annually.

      China’s first hybrid energy power station utilizing solar and tidal power to generate electricity became fully operational on May 30, 2022, in Wenling City of east China’s Zhejiang Province.

      The project marks the country’s latest approach toward harnessing two green energy sources in a complementary manner for power generation.

      With an installed capacity of 100 megawatts, the power plant ensures more stability for the utilization of renewable energy. Since solar energy supply is intermittent and unavailable when the sun goes down, tidal waves could replace it by supplying power during the night. Moon’s gravity causes tides in the oceans….

      1. ltr

        June 15, 2022

        Low-carbon Day: China tops world in installed offshore wind power
        By Liu Xun

        Read More:

        China’s first gigawatt-scale wind project’s output tops 1 billion kWh *


        China’s first solar-tidal photovoltaic power plant fully operational **


        World’s largest clean energy corridor generates 3 trillion kWh power ***


  3. Macroduck

    And that’s just for September 1, less than a month from now, for any indictment. If there were a market for any indictment for a period longer than a month, odds would be higher still.

    There is a separate market for an indictment specifically in Georgia by September 1. Odds jumped, then came down, presumably because punters realize the FBI doesn’t work for the State of Georgia. There have been several similar markets since 2016, because the man is so indictable.

    1. Econned

      That’s an important point. Biden has higher odds of impeachment by June 30, 2023 than does a Trump indictment by September 1, 2022.

      1. pgl

        A completely troll piece of utter BS. And you pretend to want to have an intelligent conversation.

        1. J. Zanfino

          pgl – I don’t see anything erroneous in the commenter Econned’s discussion on PredictIt markets. What is the “utter bs” that you see?

          1. pgl

            I did not say anything was erroneous. Now if you think purely partisan garbage is not trolling – whatever.

          2. Moses Herzog

            hahahahaha!!!! You gotta love an idiot who still doesn’t understand how IP addresses work in the year 2022. It’s cute isn’t it?? Like watching a puppy dog barking at its own image in the mirror.

    2. pgl

      Econned and his Mary Rosh are tracking whether will Biden impeached or not. Remind me – how many times did Trump get impeached. And for what?

      1. Baffling

        Signed off by merrick garland and the trump appointed director of fbi. Why do you try to make this political?

  4. Macroduck

    CBS reports that the warrant is from the missing documents case, not the January 6 case. Or a tax evasion case. Or an election fraud case. Or a financial fraud case. Or an obstruction of Justice case or a witness tampering case. So this story may turn out to be the first in a new genre of news story.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Generally he’s not smart but he is good at avoiding criminal penalties. He’s kind of an idiot savant in that sense. I was gonna ask what if they go looking for evidence on a specific crime and find evidence of a different crime. But he wouldn’t be dumb enough to put it at one of his better known places of residence would he?? I’m guessing not.

      1. Macroduck

        As long as a warrant is legally executed, any evidence gathered is admissible in court for any crime. Can’t have a warrant for guns and search for drugs. Can seize and use as evidence drugs found as long as they were found while legitimately searching for guns.

        So finding documents proving real estate fraud while searching for stolen government documents is cool.

        Heh, heh…

    2. CoRev

      MD, after failing with Russia, Russia, Russia and “… the January 6 case. Or a tax evasion case. Or an election fraud case. Or a financial fraud case. Or an obstruction of Justice case or a witness tampering case.” we now have the revolt of the librarians at the Archives case.

      Yup! That’s the ticket for derailing Trump in 2024. Liberal/Democratic hatred is on display for the voters. November is coming and can’t get here too soon. Please, please don’t rile up the Republican voter base. 😉

      Right now, I would not like Trump to run, so that he can appointed to head DOJ. Where he can do his best to clear the swamp.

      1. Moses Herzog

        You do know that even Jeff Sessions had his JD, right?? I know I am not the first person to express this but GAAAAAAWWWWWD you are dumb!!!!!!

        1. pgl

          CoRev seems to relish the idea that we will have a dictator who can treat Americans the way Putin treats Britney Griner. Of course they will only go after blacks, Asians, Hispanics and the rest of the people that CoRev runs and hides from as people of different color scares this pathetic little racist.

      2. pgl

        I hope you and Rudy G. are Trump’s defense attorneys. With your combined stupidity, the prosecutors can convict this criminal while brushing their teeth!

      3. AndrewG

        “Where he can do his best to clear the swamp.”

        Well, yes, authoritarians do like a good political purge. Your party openly calls for them – and attempts them.

      4. AndrewG

        “Or an election fraud case.”

        That one’s on tape, don’t you remember?

        “Or a tax evasion case.”

        The IRS has been ordered to hand the records over.

        You also forgot the “blackmailing Zelenskyy for Biden dirt” case. Also on tape.

        You like that so far there hasn’t been any big legal consequences to these cases. But you don’t mind at all that the facts on the ground paint a very bad picture of Your Favorite President. It’s almost like you think Trump is above the law.

      5. Macroduck

        What utter nonsense. The fact is that Trump is under investigation for multiple crimes, with no evidence that any of those investigations have failed.

        You need to remember that this isn’t “Little Green Footballs”. Reciting tribal shibboleths here just makes you look desperate.

        1. CoRev

          MD, “The fact is that Trump is under investigation for multiple crimes, with no evidence that any of those investigations have failed.” For 7 years he and his family has been attacked/investigated by the best of the Democratic Trump haters, and still nothing.

          Aren’t you embarrassed by this failure? And, why aren’t you embarrassed by your association with these Trump hating failures.

          1. AndrewG

            I think prosecutions can be both overly zealous and politicized for sure.

            But “aren’t you embarrassed” is the question best asked of people who support the guy who tried to blackmail Zelenskyy ON TAPE and pressure election officials to cough up fake votes ON TAPE. Trump fired Comey for purely political reasons, then threatened him if he spoke out about it — ON TWITTER. Not only did Trump not deny any of this (how could he?), he PUBLICALLY called on China and Russia to give him dirt on Biden. At a press conference! Aren’t you embarrassed?

            The ability of prosecutors to close is one thing. An entirely different thing is that the evidence of criminality is very public and very hard to ignore. And yet you keep ignoring it or coming up with excuses.

            You also don’t seem to mind the failure of prosecutors to close on Hillary Clinton or Hunter Biden. You need conspiracy theories to cope with the fact that there’s no case there.

          2. AndrewG

            “Russia, Russia, Russia”

            Aren’t you embarrassed that Trump went to Helsinki to have a summit with Putin and publicly backed Putin’s claim that there was no electoral interference? Going against the findings of US intelligence? Aren’t you embarrassed that the GOP Speaker of the House had to call a press conference to reaffirm the intelligence community’s finding? Aren’t you embarrassed that when Trump came back, he “corrected” his speech, literally reversing the meaning of his sentences? Aren’t you embarrassed every time Trump calls Putin a genius or otherwise praises him for being a strong leader to emulate?

            Aren’t you embarrassed?

    3. pgl

      So many crimes, So little time! BTW the Court of Appeals just rule that Trump’s financials and tax returns must be turned off. LOCK HIM UP!

  5. Moses Herzog

    Gonna miss this guy. Magical voice. If “American Nostalgia” had a persona or individual voice~~it would be incarnated in the face and persona of David McCullough. Yeah, he lived a very full life and had no right to complain. Still gonna miss him:

    Just an incredibly magical voice and knew a good phrase when he heard it. If I went back to China to teach English, I would bring some tapes/mp3 audio of this man’s voice and pass it out to my better students (the ones who wouldn’t waste it). Makes me think of the better members of my father’s generation.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I don’t know why this one effects me. Strange how stuff will hit you sometimes. 10 years this earlier summer since my Dad died. Sometimes it doesn’t feel like it was 6 months ago. Good thing I don’t have any alcohol in the house right now, I think I’d be doing the chug-a-lug.

  6. Econned

    Interestingly enough the recent news didn’t have a large enough impact to push this market to levels seen just one month ago. And it’s far lower than levels seen two months ago.

    1. pgl

      Define markets

      S&P 500 today is where it was in mid March.

      Now you may have meant something else but once again you are too arrogant to write clearly.

      1. J. Zanfino

        pgl – The post is titled “Movement in Prediction Markets” and commenter Econned literally said “this market”. Everything here is about PredictIt which is linked to in Prof Chinn’s post. I would also point out that neither one month ago nor two months ago is “mid-March”.

          1. baffling

            why does econned feel the need to use at least two different personalities on this site? this is strong evidence of troll behavior.

    2. Macroduck

      You have misunderstood the time value of these contracts. The fact of an expiration date is critical in pricing the contract. Indictment in less than a month is the issue now. Two months ago, the issue was indictment within three months.

      Hope that clears things up for you.

  7. JohnH

    Hrair Balian, an independent practitioner of conflict resolution and former Director of The Carter Center’s Conflict Resolution Program offers a common sense approaches to the conflict in Ukraine: “A window has opened to end the war in Ukraine…a ceasefire now followed by rigorous diplomacy could prevent the conflict from carrying on indefinitely.

    The war in Ukraine must end urgently. The longer it continues, the greater the ghastly consequences will be and more challenging the obstacles to peacemaking.”

    1. pgl

      “While the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a flagrant violation of international law”

      Well at least he got this right. Yet he cannot admit Putin is spreading terrorism? He is. Now every rational person would want a cease fire NOW. The problem is that your boss (Putin) has zero interest in ending his terrorism. BTW those ghastly consequences are being mostly borne by the citizens of Ukraine – a people JohnH has shown zero caring for.

    2. baffling

      yes JohnH, Putin and Russia should withdraw completely from their occupation and leave Ukraine. this includes Crimea. I do support a ceasefire and end to hostilitites. and I agree with the pursuit of war crimes.

  8. joseph

    I’m guessing that this case isn’t about simple mishandling of classified documents. We already know that 15 boxes of classified documents were recovered from the Trump residence back in February and nothing much happened. Instead I think the raid might involve the transmission of classified information to third parties — which unlike simple mishandling is a really BFD. We all know that Trump is a blabber mouth that likes to appear important. Giving classified information to third parties is a whole different level of crime than simple careless mishandling.

    1. Macroduck

      Judges are quick to issue warrants if convinced evidence may be destroyed, too. Trump is icky in both ways.

    1. AndrewG

      Furman: “The most worrying fact is that under either measure labor costs (compensation minus the portion of that covered by productivity) have been outstripping price growth. This suggests we may not have seen the full passthrough of wages to prices yet.”

      Yeah, this is the thing about the labor market. It’s way too hot right now. Bad sign for future inflation. Seems like the Fed has to keep going with rate hikes.

      This goes to a point I made elsewhere: the people being added to the job market today are lower-skill. And have the lowest propensity to work (they really have to be dragged out of the home by high prices). This in itself is a kind of inflation (by lower quality of worker).

      Well spotted.

      1. Macroduck

        In the short term, new entrants to the labor market, filling low-producvity jobs, lowers productivity. In the longer term, pulling new workers into the labor market due to low unemployment, who otherwise would not have been pulled in, allows for the development of skills and habit which improve their productivity. This was a point which Greenspan made during the “growth experiment”.

        This beneficial effect of a period of low unemployment is often ignored because of the focus on cyclical, rather than secular, phenomena. It’s rmongeally short-sighted. The best ways to improve opportunity for the employment-disadvantaged is to run a tight labor market. One of the best ways to improve the labor force is to run a tight labor market.

        We really need to find some tool other than unemployment for controlling inflation.

        1. AndrewG

          I would love that to be the case. But it ain’t.

          The best policy course is being able to have no big ups and no big downs – just a consistently strong job market, but one that’s not so strong that it allows inflation to run too hot. (I am open to arguments about what level of inflation to target, but I think those only really matter in transitions, not in the steady state, IIRC.) This may well be an argument for tight policy starting in the summer of 2021. If you start *slowly* normalizing while things are hot but not too hot, your risk of a Fed recession may be lower, not higher. The shock of quickly rising rates could be damage in and of itself. The economy needs time to adjust.

          Very good point about pulling new people in possibly being a good thing in the long run. But the choice to stay at home during a hot job market is not an unreasonable one. In fact I wish more men felt allowed to do it, but our stupid macho culture looks down on househusbands, even if they’re excellent dads and homemakers. And the people with the lowest propensity to work aren’t the ones who are going to be driving big productivity gains in the future.

          Also I thought Greenspan’s point wasn’t about the labor market per se but about technology (though I could be wrong, and those aren’t mutually exclusive of course).

  9. ltr

    August 4, 2022

    Cumulative Number of Child COVID-19 Cases

    Nearly 14.2 million children are reported to have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic according to available state reports; over 359,000 of these cases have been added in the past 4 weeks. Approximately 6.3 million reported cases have been added in 2022.

    14,195,580 total child COVID-19 cases reported, and children represented 18.5% (14,195,580 / 76,885,307) of all cases

    Overall rate: 18,860 cases per 100,000 children in the population

    American Academy of Pediatrics
    Children’s Hospital Association

  10. ltr

    August 9, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 399 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 380 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Sunday, with 324 attributed to local transmissions and 56 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Monday.

    A total of 560 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Sunday, and 5,067 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 231,266, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

  11. pgl

    Rudolph W. Giuliani, the lawyer for former President Donald J. Trump and a central figure in the investigation into election interference in Georgia, has been telling prosecutors that he cannot travel to the state to appear before a special grand jury because he is not healthy enough to fly. But on Tuesday, a judge in Fulton County, Ga., said that Mr. Giuliani, who had two coronary heart stents implanted in early July, could travel from New York to Atlanta some other way, and tentatively ordered him to show up to deliver in-person testimony on Aug. 17. “Mr. Giuliani is not cleared for air travel, A-I-R,” Judge Robert C.I. McBurney of Fulton County Superior Court said. “John Madden drove all over the country in his big bus, from stadium to stadium. So one thing we need to explore is whether Mr. Giuliani could get here without jeopardizing his recovery and his health. On a train, on a bus or Uber, or whatever it would be,” he said, adding, “New York is not close to Atlanta, but it’s not traveling from Fairbanks.”

    So now we know why RUDY smokes all those cigars and is almost always very drunk. He destroyed his health as an excuse for not appearing before a judge over his criminal behavior. Poor little RUDY!

  12. ltr

    I know propaganda sticks better when repeated
    I know propaganda sticks better when repeated
    I know propaganda sticks better when repeated

    [ Paul Krugman can write “Did Democrats Just Save Civilization?” when properly describing American policy that will increasingly limit carbon emissions, but when the Chinese describe policy that is increasingly limiting carbon emissions the Chinese writing is repeatedly dismissed as “propaganda.” Such is the self-crippling nature of prejudice. ]

    1. ltr

      I don’t know what is more hypocritical. China? Or you for passing on this propaganda.
      I don’t know what is more hypocritical. China? Or you for passing on this propaganda.
      I don’t know what is more hypocritical. China? Or you for passing on this propaganda.

      [ Such is the self-crippling nature of prejudice. China, of course, accounts for the bulk of the global green energy movement, but there are to be renewed American efforts and nations that participate as they can should be credited. ]

      1. CoRev

        ltr, I still don’t know what is more hypocritical. China? Or you for passing on this propaganda.
        I still don’t know what is more hypocritical. China? Or you for passing on this propaganda.
        I still don’t know what is more hypocritical. China? Or you for passing on this propaganda.

        China, of course, is still the largest creator of the atmospheric CO2 produced annually. Prove me wrong.

        1. pgl

          I skip ltr’s rants. So I’m happy you are writing your stupid rants as replies. Save me a lot of time.

  13. Anonymous

    tomorrow cpi number must be horrid….

    otherwise why have the gestapo invade mar-a-loga?

    1. Macroduck

      The FBI. To preserve evidence of a possible crime.

      Not that hard to understand, of one wants to understand.

      1. CoRev

        MD, with the attack of the librarians,the whole Democratic party has been painted as desperate, and horrible fearful of Trump’s possible re-election. C’mon November. US voters can already see and feel the RESULTS in the differences in economic policy.

        Your party’s next big economic fear, just like your fear of a recession, will be that the economy improves after the Republicans take the house. It will be funny watching Dems and the press try to claim any improvement is due to Biden policies. For instance with the passing or anticipation of its being passed of the IRA we can see the immediate impacts Tesla and Ford have raised their EV prices, and that’s just one of the many still to come. Tell us again what the “R” is in the IRA.

        1. AndrewG

          “the attack of the librarians”

          That’s what you call high-value top secret materials knowingly being held at home by someone who was legally required to leave it with the government?

          Was Clinton’s Servergate “the attack of the IT nerds”?

        2. pgl

          “Your party’s next big economic fear, just like your fear of a recession, will be that the economy improves after the Republicans take the house.”

          I guess you have been asleep for 3 years. The economy sucked in 2020 but has improved a lot in the last 18 months. Come on CoRev – you need to follow the recent news and not that BS on Fox.

    2. AndrewG

      Oh that’s so sad that the inflation numbers are great AND Trump’s place was searched by the FBI.

      Hey, your conspiracy theories suck.

      1. pgl

        Menzie has posted the latest on inflation and it was very low relative to expectations. Oh well CoRev’s poor neighbors will have to endure more of his insane barking while he chases his own tail.

  14. Macroduck

    Sarah Isgur, head of the DOJ office of Public Affairs under Trump and a long-time Republican legal started, appeared today on NPR. Her’s is the voice you may remember defending Trump’s family separation policy.

    Isgur doesn’t have much use for the sort of politicized tripe being offered by Anonymous and Econned/J.Zanfino and Corev. Worth a listen for those interested in a no-nonsense assessment of the FBI’s actions at Mar-a-Lago.

  15. Macroduck

    Off topic, though based on ltr’s behavior, not so much –

    Another sector of China’s economy is apparently in trouble, largely because of a collapse in construction:

    China’s steel inventories were reportedly up sharply in June, a dangerous positive feed-back. The mortgage boycott is creating serious strain for mid-sized banks, which haven’t received a direct bailout. The government has granted $148 billion to builders; Capital Economics estimates $444 billion is needed simply to finish existing units. Finishing those units is necessary to end the mortgage boycott. So far, there is no obvious mechanism in place to stop the rot spreading from the construction sector.

    1. AndrewG

      Things are still kind of hot by normal standards! And I don’t think it’s lumber supply issues anymore. We millennials love our new houses, m’kay?

  16. joseph

    Well, this could be ironically awkward. Donald J. Trump signed into law the FISA Amendments Reauthorization Act of 2017 which contains the following:

    Section 1924(a) of title 18, United States Code, is amended
    by striking ‘‘one year’’ and inserting ‘‘five years’’.

    Trump could do one year in Club Fed and be joyously re-elected by his sycophants in 2024, but five years …

    1. AndrewG

      I saw this, and I love it.

      It’s like they outwitted Nixon before Nixon became Nixon.

      I also love that FBI Director Wray and the judge that signed the warrant are both Trump appointees.

      1. baffling

        but i thought this was a democratic conspiracy. that is what corev told me. it is the democrats creating all these problems. you cannot be correct that the fbi director and judge were both trump fellows! liars! maybe econned or zanfino (or whatever other personality appears today) can correct us on the error.

  17. ltr

    August 10, 2022

    Price increases eased more than expected in July as gas costs dropped.

    Inflation cooled in July as gas prices and airfares fell, a welcome reprieve for consumers and economic policymakers but not yet a conclusive sign that price increases are turning a corner.

    The Consumer Price Index climbed by 8.5 percent in the year through July, compared to 9.1 percent the prior month, a bigger slowdown than economists had projected. After stripping out food and fuel costs to get a sense of underlying price pressures, prices climbed by 5.9 percent through July, matching the previous reading.

    On a monthly basis, the price index did not move at all in July. That’s because fuel prices, airfares and used cars declined in price, offsetting increases in rent and food costs.

    Core inflation was also slower than economists had expected on a monthly basis, climbing by 0.3 percent. In June, that figure was 0.7 percent.

    Today’s report is probably welcome news at the White House and the Federal Reserve, both of which have been waiting for inflation to decelerate.

    But it’s easy to overstate how much July’s slowdown matters. Inflation is still abnormally high. The decline owed in large part to gas prices, and they can always jump again.

    There are some real reasons to believe inflation will slow in the months ahead: Supply chain pressures, for instance, show signs of easing.

    But there are also reasons to worry. Wage growth remains rapid. And housing costs, particularly rents, continue to climb, which could keep inflation high for some time.

    — Jeanna Smialek

    1. pgl

      CoRev, Bruce Hall, and Princeton Steve are all having a very bad day. It will not be long before these Three Stooges start attacking the BLS for being members of Antifa.

    2. pgl

      “On a monthly basis, the price index did not move at all in July. That’s because fuel prices, airfares and used cars declined in price, offsetting increases in rent and food costs.”

      Poor Bruce Hall made the claim that this price index rose but less slowly. Yea – Dr. Chinn has a new post calling out the latest dumb statement ala Brucie!

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