One of the enduring mysteries of the past two years is why measured economic sentiment remains so sour despite objectively good economic outcomes.
Figure 1: Misery index sum of unemployment and inflation rate, % (black, left scale), and U.Michigan consumer sentiment index, inverted (tan, right scale). Inflation rate is CPI y/y growth rate. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, U.Michigan via FRED, NBER, author’s calculations.
One thing to realize is that there are actually three different groups in the Michigan sample. The disaggregated results — for Dem/Dem lean, Independent, Rep/Rep lean — are only reported occassionally, although with greater frequency in recent years.
Figure 2: U.Michigan consumer sentiment index for Dem/Dem lean (blue), for Rep/Rep lean (red). Light orange shading denotes Trump administration. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Michigan, NBER, author’s calculations.
Note that there is an obvious switch in sentiment with the end of the Trump administration, and the beginning of the Biden, that seems unrelated to changes in aggregate economic conditions (although this is not to say inflation and unemployment don’t affect measured sentiment).
This is confirmed by the following regressions (2008M01-2023M06), for Dem sentiment and Rep sentiment:
SentDem = 103.33 – 1.92u – 1.85π -28.76GWBush – 13.02Trump + 1.52Biden – 38.6Covid
Adj.-R2 = 0.48, SER = 9.046, DW = 0.42, Nobs = 109. Bold (underline) denotes significant at 10% msl (15%) using HAC robust (Newey-West) standard errors.
Where Sent is the University of Michigan sentiment index, u is the unemployment rate, π is the 12 month CPI inflation rate, Covid is the Covid death rate per 1000 population, 2020M01-2021M06, and 0 otherwise. GWBush, Trump, and Biden are dummy variables for each administration (Obama is the omitted dummy, so the constant can be interpreted as the average value holding all else constant, during the Obama administration.)
SentRep = 102.71 – 4.03u – 1.62π -3.84GWBush + 34.64Trump – 26.87Biden + 27.4Covid
Adj.-R2 = 0.91, SER = 9.16, DW = 0.70, Nobs = 109. Bold denotes significant at 10% msl using HAC robust (Newey-West) standard errors.
Interestingly, sentiment is unaffected by Covid dealths per capita for both groups, in terms of statistical significance.
In quantitative terms, Democrats really viewed GWBush and Trump administrations as negatives for sentiment, while Republicans had outsized pluses for Trump and outsized negatives for Biden.
If Dem/Dem lean and Rep/Rep lean had equal and opposite signs for dummy coefficients on Trump and Biden, and Dem/Dem lean and Rep/Rep lean had equal weight in the overall index, then one would not expect a differential effect. However, the Rep/Rep lean Trump coefficient is nearly 3 times that for Dem/Dem lean (in absolute value). In addition, while Biden has a positive coefficent for Dem/Dem lean, the (absolute value of the) quantitative magnitude (1.5) is dwarfed by that for Rep/Rep lean of 26.9(!).
Hence, while Rep/Rep lean have about 24% weighting and Dem/Dem lean have about 34% (about 46% Ind), the intensity of the Rep/Rep lean feelings explains a big chunk of the overall measure.
Another way of seeing the outsized effects of who holds the presidency on Rep/Rep lean sentiment is to look at 12 month changes in UMCSENT, decomposed into proportions attributable to each group.
Figure 3: Change in U.Michigan consumer sentiment August to August (black square), contribution from Dem/Dem lean (blue bar), from Rep/Rep lean (red bar), from Independent (gray bar). Light orange shading denotes Trump administration. Source: U.Michigan, author’s calculations.
Figure 3 highlights the big switch in Rep sentiment associated with Trump’s ascension in 2017, and the other big switch (opposite direction) associated with Biden’s ascension in 2021. While Dem/Dem lean have large contributions, they are not as large as the Republican shifts. The outsized Rep impact is even more impressive when one recalls the Rep/Rep lean weight is 24% (vs. 34% for Dem/Dem lean).
Professor Chinn,
Should we have some concern that the DW statistic is less than the R squared value in each model? Since the sample is small, would the “HAC robust (Newey-West) standard errors” be reliable?
AS In theory the HAC adjustment should correct for any autocorrelation in the regression, so the DW statistic pointing towards autocorrelation should not be a major problem. Also, even though the regression is presented as a time series analysis, a lot of the intuition behind it seems more like a cross section analysis. Typically we worry less about autocorrelation (i.e., the “A” in HAC) and worry more about heteroskedasticity (i.e., the “H” in HAC) when dealing with cross section analyses.
I was going to about to ask where our friend 2slugbaits had gone, because many people here on the blog missed your intelligence and logic, and “bringing us back to base’ This blog is missing something when you are absent 2slugbaits
2slugbaits,
Thank you.
Menzie, I love you like a brother or an UNcle. That’s God’s truth. BUt think now, you lived it (more than I did, I was a baby at 1973) About ALL the crimes Richard Nixon committed. Are you quite sure that??:
“One of the enduring mysteries of the past two years is why measured economic sentiment remains so sour despite….. “
i.e. do you think that era was that disconnected from politics??
Lawrence Caplan argues that the 14th Amendment prevents Trump from holding office again as someone who violated his oath to uphold the Constitution
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/attorney-sues-trump-claims-he-is-constitutionally-ineligible-for-presidency/ar-AA1fMSt9?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a5e9ff3d56d0493cbbba791a7fffe870&ei=7
A lawyer sued former President Donald Trump on Thursday, claiming that Trump is ineligible to serve another term as president due to his involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots.
“Section 3 of the 14th Amendment [of the U.S. Constitution], automatically excludes from future office and position of power in the U.S. government … any individual who has previously taken an oath to support and defend our Constitution and after which acts so as to rebel against that charter,” attorney Lawrence Caplan wrote in his lawsuit filed with the U.S. District Court in South Florida.
Caplan argues that Trump’s role in the storming of the Capitol and overturn the 2020 presidential election results constitutes a violation of this section of the Constitution.
Two members of the conservative Federalist Society first advanced this theory earlier this month. Now, Caplan is hoping the legal system will enforce it.
“Petitioner respectfully asks this honorable Court to enter a declaratory judgment such that Donald J, Trump is barred from seeking the office of President of the United States,” Caplan concluded his lawsuit. “And further, is barred [f]rom particpating (sic) in the Republican Presidential primary in Florida in the spring of 2024.”
I have heard from “experts” in the news (for what that’s worth) that state law must be appealed to in excluding Trump from ballots. If, for instance, an underage person meets all the other qualifications, it is obvious that person must be excluded from the ballot, so a state official (usually the secretary of state) simply declines to allow that person on the ballot. The decision regarding Trump would work the same way.
If that is correct, then it’s not obvious what a lawsuit accomplishes. But I’m not qualified to say whether that is the correct and only process.
Have you read the oped penned by Laurence Tribe and Michael Luttig? They do an excellent job of laying out the issues and procedures.
It would be ironic if all those arguments that the states can decide about federal elections and electors for the electoral college, ended up supporting the right of states to refuse approval of electors for Trump or even to allow him on the ballot. I might even turn on Fox just to see Hannity backpedaling so hard he gets all red in the face.
The Quaker bastard ran free, did he not????
The most interesting distinction I have seen depends on the question asked.
If they ask how you doing personally, 70% say fine.
If they ask how is the economy doing, 70% say terrible.
So for some reason most everyone thinks they are fine and simultaneously most everyone else is bad off. Both can’t be true. That can be explained by the media, which focuses on bad news. If everything you see on the news says everything is terrible, you will believe it is terrible even if your own experience is okay. This works to Biden’s detriment.
I read a bit of research recently which looked at negativity in press coverage, and yes sir, the focus on negative news, or finding negative spin to apply to the news, has increased over time.
It is pretty obvious that the drastic change in economic sentiment as we changed President was unique to Republicans. I think the disconnect between Republican sentiment and economic reality can be explained with one word: Fox. Fox “news” is presenting these insanely distorted narratives about everything falling apart and they fail to report any positive news. The right wing in general and Fox viewers particularly are not prone to seek facts or question statements from their cult leaders.
I don’t know how you can find that “pretty obvious.” A glance at Fig. 2 above shows that both Democrats and Republicans had large jumps in their consumer sentiment after the 2016 and 2020 elections. The jump for Republicans may have been larger, but not vastly larger.
If you go beyond looking at the chart and read the text of the post, the point is that confidence responses of Republicans are vastly more sensitive than than those of Democrats to the party of the president. That’s kind of the point of the post.
Yes, but the jump for Democrats was clearly temporary, whereas for Republicans not so much. Looking at the last year and a half, from the start of 2022, the Dem average is about the same, maybe slightly higher, as it was during pre-pandemic Trump. Meanwhile, the Republican average is about 75 points lower, starting from roughly 120 and falling to maybe 45. That is indeed a huge difference, and the one that counts when we look at how people have viewed the economy over the last 1 – 2 years.
Exactly. But let’s not forget radio. Rush Limbaugh poisoned millions of minds from a radio booth.
Sour mood explanation candidates:
1. America’s dismal performance during the pandemic and the on-going opioid epidemic. Sickness and death.
2. Sharpening of the US culture wars, deep political polarization. The social contract appears significantly frayed.
3. Frailty of the US political system as manifested by the MAGA Republican-inspired insurrection.
4. A creeping realization that US political elites cannot stop deceiving and lying and thus cannot be trusted.
5. High rates of inflation, in particular food inflation.
6. Rapidly deteriorating fiscal situation.
7. The never ending procession of never ending wars, proxy and otherwise.
8. In some quarters, a growing realization that “might is right”-based international order is not working to the best interests of Americans.
All are viable candidates. The partisan difference is a good sorting mechanism. Any explanation which doesn’t match up with the extreme Republican sensitivity to presidential party is missing something.
Agree. The Covid recession had clear effects on the economy, and was equally affecting the mood of both partisans. Anything that doesn’t clearly affects economic parameters and has a partisan split in effects on mood, needs explaining. Even if it is true you still have to ask why it is affecting mood of one but not the other.
Sentiment is a measure of feelings, not necessarily economic data, so there can be some disconnect. This is a cut an paste from an article discussing why “sentiment remains so sour”.
On Friday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein acknowledged that the declines in the inflation rate just mean “prices are rising more slowly.” And “People want to see some deflation” where prices drop.
CNBC Senior Economics Reporter Steve Liesman asked, “I hear you on, there [are] certain remarkable things about the moment. But when we look at the polls of how people feel about the economy, they feel fairly lousy about the economy. And that’s because price levels are up and not going back down. How do you address that? How do you make people feel that the economy is better, when, in fact, in many cases, their wages are not equal to the rise in prices?”
Bernstein responded, “Well, on the last part, I’d probably hit you with a little bit of a fact check, which is that real wages have been going up.”
Liesman acknowledged that has been the case for the past “several months.”
Bernstein continued, “Look, it is a fundamental question, and I think a pretty straightforward answer, is that we’ve got to keep pushing against inflation. So, there’s disinflation and deflation. We’ve had very significant disinflation, going from a bit north of 9% on the CPI to 3.2 when last seen. But that just means prices are rising more slowly. People want to see some deflation. And we’ve seen some deflation. So, we have to keep working on that. At the same time, with real wages growing, that’s going to make a positive difference in people’s attitudes going forward. That’s my hypothesis.”
On Friday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein acknowledged that the declines in the inflation rate just mean “prices are rising more slowly.” And “People want to see some deflation” where prices drop.
It seems Jared has been reading your incredibly dumb comments here. Ever since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand did their Paul Volcker moment in 1987, most Central Banks in the developed world have been targeting a 2% inflation rate. Maybe there are some people who are dumb enough to advocate deflation but even Keynes in the 1920’s wrote why this was an awful idea. And yet people like Bruce Hall are too dumb to get something well known for over a century.
“But when we look at the polls of how people feel about the economy, they feel fairly lousy about the economy.”
Not quite right. This is the point of this post: Republicans feel lousy about “the economy” which really means the are unhappy about having a Democrat in the White House. Anyone who isn’t a Republican is likely to feel OK about the economy.
By the way, the fact that non-Republicans generally feel OK about the economy runs contrary to the narrative that Biden is at risk of losing in 2024 because of the economy. Republicans are unlikely to vote for Biden, anyway. Knowing that non-Republicans are OK with the economy suggests Biden isn’t really in trouble over the economy.
In the same way, the story that Trump hasn’t been hurt by his multiple indictments is realistically a story about Republican voters, not non-Republican voters. So indictment is locking the GOP into a loser for 2024.
Getting the disaggregated news numbers right is important. The disaggregated news says Trump’s indictments, abortion bans, pro-gun legislation and general nuttiness are bad for Republicans. A recession would probably be enough to outweigh those other factors, which is why the troll choir and MAGA-heads have tried so hard to make a recession out of a mole hill.
“Fox “news” is presenting these insanely distorted narratives about everything falling apart and they fail to report any positive news.”
Lawrence Kudlow keeps telling his Faux Business audience that Biden has created only 2.6 million new jobs in the past 30 months. FRED and the BLS puts this increase at 11.4 million.
I guess Kudlow gets his information from Princeton Steve.
A very timely release from US intelligence agencies showing that “Russia is laundering propaganda through unwitting Westerners”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/25/politics/us-intel-russia-propaganda/index.html
Kudlow may have a diverse portfolio of unreliable sources.
“Russian intelligence is operating a systematic program to launder pro-Kremlin propaganda through private relationships between Russian operatives and unwitting US and western targets, according to newly declassified US intelligence.”
So, is Johnny just “”unwitting” or is he on the payroll? Same question for “Yves Smith”.
Newly declassified US intel claims Russia is laundering propaganda through unwitting Westerners
Unwitting? JohnH? But then the 2nd paragraph said these clowns were influential. Jonny boy is certainly not that.
why is “our spy” always in white?
If pigly and Ducky are to be believed, then the NY Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal must also laundering propaganda for the Kremlin…LMAO.
“The New York Times (NYT) and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) each published very critical articles about Kiev’s counteroffensive just several days apart. Respectively titled “Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say” and “U.S., Ukraine Clash Over Counteroffensive Strategy”, they take the vicious blame game that’s recently exploded between the two to the next level.” https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/the-nyt-wsjs-critical-articles-about-kievs-counteroffensive-explain-why-it-failed.html
In Vietnam, the US just got rid of Diem when he wasn’t winning as instructed. What will happen to Zelensky?
Reality is a bitch…and you can expect Ducky and pigly to be in denial for the duration.
I believe you meant to write “if CNN is to be believed”.
It was CNN which made a factual claim. pgl and I simply commented on what CNN reported. Slow as you are on the uptake, Johnny even you couldn’t have missed that.
So what we have here, again, is Johnny being dishonest in an effort to distract from a fact inconvenient for his ideological masters – the “Russia is winning, NATO is cracking” narrative is coming from Russia’s FSB. He wants to give the impression that the FSB story comes from a couple of guys commenting on a blog. That’s a lie. It comes from a U.S. intelligence agency, by way of CNN.
Weak effort, Johnny. As usual.
Ducky and pigly’s “inconvenient fact:” the “Russia is winning, NATO is cracking” narrative is coming from Russia’s FSB…and being reflected in the NY Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal.
Who knew that America’s newspapers of record now all work for Putin? CNN, Ducky, and his doppelganger pigly certainly seem to think so!
“CNN, Ducky, and his doppelganger pigly certainly seem to think so!”
Again, you’ve lied about the source. A U.S. intelligence agency has evidence that Russia’s FSB is peddling the story that NATO is cracking and Russia is winning. CNN reported the view of a U.S. intelligence agency. CNN doesn’t “think so”. They reported the conclusion of a U.S intelligence agency.
Funny how you, a cog in Russia’s propaganda mechanism, are so desperate to hide the workings of Russia’s propaganda mechanism. Johnny , I realize that when you double down on a lie, it’s just standard große Lüge behavior, but you really are carrying it to ridiculous lengths.
JohnH is the same JohnH who has repeatedly warned us not accept much of anything in US or European corporate media. He’s on record numerous times here denying reports of Russian atrocities reported by the same media he now wholeheartedly embraces. Surprise?
If memory serves he was particularly adamant about the siege of Mariupol, claiming fabrication and distortions by the same media outlets he now champions as honest and worthy of our respect.
(BBC, 3/23 photo caption “The invading Russian forces destroyed some 90% of the residential buildings in Mariupol” And “Russian forces put the people of Mariupol through a horrific months long siege before capturing it last May” In JohnLand—a far away, imaginary place to be sure— that’s when he insisted we not fall for such biased reporting.)
He’s also a handwringer who claims he detests futile, pointless, wasteful wars. Unless, apparently, they’re being waged by a freedom loving autocrat who wants nothing more than to Re establish as much as possible of the old USSR.
Jonny boy is citing a discussion that relies on Andrew Korybko? Does little Jonny boy even know who Andrew Korybko is? Moscow based and on the faculty of one of Russia’s university.
Come on Jonny boy – we get are pathetic at research. We get that you tout out questionable sources routinely. But DAMN!
While Johnny is puffing up the pro-Putin “new narrative”, here’s the sort of thing grown-ups are discussing:
https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/china-ponders-russias-logistical-challenges-in-the-ukraine-war/
The press has to change the story it tells regularly, to maintain readers’ attention. In that world, Johnny’s propaganda world, the “narrative” is what matters. In the real world, facts matter. Facts like logistics.
Russia has already lost more than half its tanks and used almost all the stock of missiles it had at the beginning of the war. So its logistics challenge will be how much it can ramp up production of military hardware and ammo. Ukraine has been in a similar position from early on but being dependent on how much NATO can ramp up production/delivery. Given the 35:2 ratio in the size of economies you have to put your bets on NATO. Furthermore, Ukriane’s home production of sea and air drones has increased dramatically and there is little indication that Russia has been able to match it. Russia may produce ineffective Iranian drones by the end of this year, but unclear how many – and they are being shot down at more than 90% rates wherever Ukraine has air defense systems.
More laundering of Russian propaganda, this time from BBC: “ Ukraine counter-offensive against Russia yields only small gains in first 2 months”
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/08/the-atavistic-component-of-consumer-sentiment#comments
Of course, piggly would disagree, claiming that picking up a handful of ham-lets is a very big deal. And Ducky, pigggly’s doppelgänger, would certainly quack his agreement!
Mark Milley certainly knows more than you do. Of course little Jonny boy omits what he has said. You are a liar and not a very good one. But of course you love the Kremlin dog food so hey!
Milley sure is smart enough to be able to keep his job…even after having made a colossal mistake in the administration’s eyes of advocating negotiations last November. Sadly, loyalty and institutional imperatives trumped his good sense…and he continues to toe the administration line, even as many in the intelligence community express their doubts.
Smart is not the same as wise.
At least my doppelgänger is smart. Alas my stalker is mentally retarded.
And here’s Johnny again, creating straw men. He needs to attribute weak positions to pgl and to me, because he doesn’t have a string position of his own.
Let’s remember – Russia invaded Ukraine and has killed thousands of Ukrainians, destroyed homes, hospitals, cafes, schools, public rail terminals and factories, prevented the export of food to poor countries. Ukraine was never a threat to Russia, hadn’t attacked Russia, but has been twice invaded by Russia. Johnny has never acknowledged Russia’s culpability in starting this war. He has cheered for Russian gains and ignored Russian losses.
When I point out Johnny’s obvious role as a fan boy of Russian aggression, he assigns ridiculous straw man views to me. It’s all he can do. His own position is that of a cheerleader for violence and death.
Another case of Fox making stuff up to try and harm Biden – in the process slandering the military and having to apologize to a Gold Star Family
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/26/business/fox-news-gold-star-family-apology/index.html
Ford receives $9.2 billion government loan for EV battery factory projects
https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/22/23769966/ford-doe-loan-ev-battery-factory-sk-avtm
Ford will receive $9.2 billion as part of a conditional loan from the US Department of Energy to aid in the construction of three huge electric vehicle battery factories, the agency announced Thursday. The mammoth loan represents the biggest government offering to an automaker since the bailouts following the Great Recession of 2009. The loan originates from the DOE’s Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (AVTM) program, which famously helped put Tesla on the map and more recently provided a boost for a joint venture of General Motors and LG Energy Solution to help fund the construction of a new lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility. Another recent recipient was Redwood Materials, the electric vehicle battery recycling and manufacturing venture founded by the former chief technologist at Tesla. The loans are part of a broader effort by the Biden administration to boost EV manufacturing as it races to catch up with China, which controls around three-quarters of battery production globally. It’s also an important piece of the White House’s plan to promote clean energy amid the deepening climate crisis.
Mind you JohnH was whining the US was not doing enough to build up an EV sector. Now when this two faced troll reads this watch the Janus faced clown whine that we are propping up big business.
Thank you President Biden for bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US. From what I hear you are doing this even though you are sleepy. If this is what you do in your sleep and with one hand tied behind your back, then you really are superman!!!
$9 Billion? Chump change! “On June 21, 2023, China announced a substantial tax incentive package amounting to 520 billion yuan (US$72.3 billion) over a span of four years. This package is specifically designed to provide tax breaks for electric vehicles (EVs) and other environmentally friendly vehicles. It represents the largest tax incentive ever offered by China to the automotive industry…”
Looks like “EV manufacturing [will] race to catch up with China, which controls around three-quarters of battery production globally.” https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-considers-extending-its-ev-subsidies-to-2023/
But the real question is: “where have all the free trade fundamentalists gone…you remember, guys like Krugman, who would vilify anyone who was suspected of giving off the slightest hint of a protectionism…such as advocating policies to subsidize certain domestic industries?” Oh, I know, laissez-faire “free” trade is no longer in the elites’ self-interest, so the policy du jour…and hence the accepted policy ofmall those economists who were formerly free trade fundamentalists…has shifted, tacking according to the current political winds! Ricardo must be rolling around is his grave at economists’ fickleness.
Batteries, component of electric vehicles — $9 billion
Electric vehicles as a whole — $20 billion.
So 45% for componentt is chump change? Idiot provocateur.
$20 billion? Barely a quarter of what China is allocating…the US expects to overtake China by investing less?
But Ducky and pigly, who operate in tandem, don’t understand the meaning of too little, too late…which is particularly applicable for a pathetic industry that never could catch up to the Japanese and is now being humiliated by Korean car manufacturers.
How effing stupid are you anyway? Never mind – you answered that already.
“Korean car manufacturers”. Hey Jonny boy – guess who had to bail out Daewoo.
Yea my stalker is mentally retarded.
Remember – Jonny boy flunked preK arithmetic.
“$9 Billion? Chump change!”
Jonny boy’s inability to do basic research is on full display here. Let’s note what even a modest amount of effort comes up with:
(1) The story notes the new assets will be $11.4 billion of which over 80% will be financed by debt ($9.2 billion loan). Chump change?
(2) Ford is a huge company even before this investment but its corporate debt before this is less than $2 billion.
(3) And yet Ford has a BB+ credit rating which is why the credit spread on that corporate debt is near 3%.
Now with this in mind – one would think Jonny boy would investigate what the interest rate might be on the new debt. But no – little Jonny is too stooopid to even raise this question. After all – Jonny boy had no clue on the simple points I just made.
Oh, and Johnny? You don’t decide what “the real question” is. You’re nobody.
If you had anything if value to contribute, it would be one thing. But you simply keep trying to drag discussions here away from real economics, toward whatever it is your paymasters have in their agenda this week. The “real question” is whatever the grown-ups say it is. Not your latest winge.
That’s *one* loan to *one* company, not the entirety of the U.S. subsidies / loans / etc. for EV / battery production. Nor is the Chinese tax incentive package the totality of everything they’ve done to support EV / battery production. In short, you’re making a meaningless comparison.
You have to forgive little Jonny boy. His mother has to still tie his shoe laces.
JohnH the other day was openly mocking the counteroffensive by Ukraine. I bet Putin’s pet poodle was begging for his doggy treats. But wait – Mark Milley is telling a very different story.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-joint-chiefs-gen-milley-cites-ukrainian-counteroffensive-breakthrough/ar-AA1fOKjT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a483c0642fcc442f9829268e6f03a0f6&ei=6
Who to trust – Milley or some yapping pet poodle?
pgl would certainly trust Milley…a government official who job is to promote the notion that Ukraine is winning and keep the merchants’ of death gravy train flowing.
However, a second narrative has emerged in the NY Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal. It acknowledges Ukraine’s limited progress and discusses the finger pointing going on about the reasons for the lack of success. This disparity between the official narrative and more realistic, unnamed sources is a typical occurrence in all of the US’ pointless, futile, and wasteful wars.
“a government official who job is to promote the notion”
That is utter BS. Say that to his face you little coward. I dare you.
“pgl would certainly trust Milley…a government official who job is to promote the notion that Ukraine is winning and keep the merchants’ of death gravy train flowing.”
Two things beyond this disgusting slander of Mark Milley but the gutless weasel JohnH. It turns out that Jonny boy has joined Tucker Carlson and other MAGA cowards in attacking the record of this war hero with blatant lies about his military service. But never mind that as Jonny boy clearly has not read this:
https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/3667.pdf
It is part of a stinging critique of how the 2003 invasion of Iraq and its aftermath. Now one would think Jonny boy would be promoting this but he hasn’t. Of course during the lead up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq this coward never joined us protesting the idea that we would invade another nation. No little Jonny boy ducked into some safe place to have dinner rather than join protesters.
Now I raise this critique of the Iraq War as it was Milley who wanted this published. His MAGA masters did not. But little Jonny boy – the great anti-war fast food eater – thinks he has the right to criticize Milley? No Jonny boy – you could not even shine his shoes as you are nothing more than a lying little coward.
pgl
Pentagon run like a business, or what a cash cow for milley’s future seat on several boards?
milley runs a business, and it has never gotten close to s clean audit.
follow the money!
Is your real name Tucker Carlson? After all your latest smear is about as dumb as it gets.
so…. you think the pentagon is auditable? why?
i am prettier than tucker and i got rid of the silly giggle in 7th grade!
Anonymous
August 28, 2023 at 5:44 am
so…. you think the pentagon is auditable?
You wrote he runs a business. Now you admit he heads the Pentagon. Yea – you are indeed a worthless little troll who cannot even bother to write clearly.
JohnH continues staged handwringing over pointless, futile wars. Except for Ukraine. He refuses to admit the obvious: this pointless, futile war could/would quickly end with a Russian withdrawal, ending a pointless, futile, wasteful invasion by the Putineers who will/have sacrifice(d) anything that gets in their way to conquer Ukraine.
JohnH could end his handwringing over the pointless brutality unleashed by the invaders, but of course he won’t.
He’s a fraud for peace, the worst kind for sure. He mouths concern while happily cheering on the continuing wasteful—and murderous— invaders.
You’d think his already forked tongue couldn’t get any more forked.
Wrong.
Not good:
“Eurozone business activity contracted at an accelerating pace in August as the region’s downturn spread further from
manufacturing to services. Both sectors reported falling output and new orders, albeit with the goods-producing sector
registering by far the sharper rates of decline. Hiring came close to stalling…”
Here’s the picture:
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/composite-pmi
If I were the Deep State:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8mfGkfI5ik
Another example of how the MAGA crowd is totally unhinged.
Kevin Drum has an excellent discussion on the minimum wage:
https://jabberwocking.com/raw-data-the-minimum-wage-in-california-and-the-nation/
you have to be really bored to read a gao “releases”! being retired, and wondering what is going on with the greatest, most advanced aircraft in the world…. f-35.
so i found gao 23-106047, May 2023. there is another which i would refer to about how much it costs to keep it running and holes where engines belong on a number of planes.
“Lastly, the James M. Inhofe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal
Year 2023 included a provision that we review DOD’s efforts to
modernize the propulsion, power, and thermal management systems of
the F-35 aircraft.5” page 2.
f-35 have not passed the test, that would establish the product baseline, but already modernizing! signing a receiving report for an f-35 without its product baseline is a questionable practice…… one of many causes of audit “difficulty”. compromise!
cut to the chase, they keep adding new “capability” i.e. newer functions to the still not ready for full production f-35. it is called concurrency and has always lead to huge issues.
those capabilities include equipment with chips that run too hot and have to be cooled. cooling comes from the engine. dragging energy from the engine which then has to run hotter to keep the airplane in the air. hotter engine operating temperature reduces time between breakdowns!
so the new functions drive the already problematic engine over the edge. call it modernization!
for the greatest most advanced aircraft in the world…. f-35.
the netherlands, and denmark are giving away old f-16, seemingly free, bc they are getting the greatest, most advanced aircraft in the world…. f-35.
and we worry about russians spreading ‘misinformation’!
You do know that no one here reads your trash.
you have to be really bored to read…..
you make me giggle like tucker….. most of the time
“Luxurious Villa owned by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Family Discovered On Egyptian Coast”
https://punchng.com/luxurious-villa-owned-by-ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelenskyys-family-discovered-on-egyptian-coast/
So much for Ukraine’s anti-corruption masquerade…kleptocracy rules!
Tracing down the source of your latest disgustingly dishonest spear:
‘Egyptian investigative journalist Mohammed Al-Alawi provided exclusive materials regarding Ukrainian President zelensky. According to the documents, the clown’s family purchased a luxurious villa in the “city of millionaires” El Gouna’
Clown? Mohammed Al-Alawi is the Egyptian version of Rudy Guiliani. Come on Jonny boy – we get you are a dishonest POS but are you really THIS stupid? Maybe you should become Jim Jordan’s investigative reporter.
It seems this bogus smear is being pushed hard by the Usual Suspects. This from Wikipedia lets us know who is pushing this garbage the hardest:
Michel Chossudovsky (born 1946) is a Canadian economist and author. He is professor emeritus of economics at the University of Ottawa and the president and director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), which runs the website globalresearch.ca, founded in 2001, which publishes falsehoods and conspiracy theories. Chossudovsky has promoted conspiracy theories about 9/11. In 2017, the Centre for Research on Globalization was accused by information warfare specialists at NATO’s Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (STRATCOM) of playing a key role in the spread of pro-Russian propaganda. A report by the U.S. State Department in August 2020 accused the website of being a proxy for a Russian disinformation campaign.
Poor little Jonny boy has to spread the vilest lies about Zelensky but he is so incredibly stupid assuming we will not check up on his dishonest sources. Yes Jonny boy is a vile liar and the dumbest troll God ever created.
“According to investigation, Olga Kiyashko, whose name matches the name of Zelenskyy’s mother-in-law, owns a VIP estate worth $5 million. Political scientist Abdulrahman Alabbassy draws a conclusion that the president’s relative purchased the estate with the humanitarian aid funds allocated to Ukraine by the West to repel Russian military aggression”
My God this is low even by your low standards. A person with a first name as common as John and a last name shared with tens of thousands of Ukrainians, purchase a property – so it must have been purchased by Zelensky using humanitarian funds from the west (and his mother in law as a cover) ???
Putin will almost certainly award you with two cookies for this one. One for peddling his narratives, and the second for being willing to look like a moron doing it.
Trump has his Rudy Giuliani. Putin has JohnH.
Both will go into the gutter dredging up the most vile trash and both ultimately ends up with brown stuff rolling down his cheeks.
Somehow, in looking for kleptocrats, JohnH hasn’t bothered to look too closely at the man who may well be the world’s greatest—and wealthiest—kleptocrat. That would be the former KGB colonel who, by some estimates, has amassed a fortune close to $200 BILLION, including luxury autos, yachts, aircraft, et. al.
This glaring omission points to JohnH’s non understanding of how others view his repeated attempts to deliver shocking faux news which usually is not shocking or news.
Meanwhile, he’ll continue his now worn act as a concerned citizen pontificating about futile, pointless, and wasteful wars. Except, of course, with war begun by the former KGB now wealthy colonel with a now untold fortune who could end this pointless, futile, wasteful war tomorrow while klepping even more assets and adding to his billions.
For a guy who professes his love for democracy and for the common citizen, JohnH continues to cheer a murderous autocrat who detests anything of the sort.
No one is even mildly surprised as we witness JohnH question why no poster here loves. Freedom more than he does.
Noah Smith offers a view of the current state of and future of BRICS as a counterweight to the current system of international organizations:
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/brics-is-fake
Smith takes the view that the current hullabaloo gives overe-estimates the influence of the BRICS. They aspire to greater influence, bit are so at odds with each other that they are unable to accomish much.
Noah is a smart guy. Here, he is engaging in the sort of prognostication which Tetlock identified as similar to chimps throwing darts. He maybe right about the future. He’s pretty clearly right about the current state of affairs.
By the way, here’s one reason Johnny’s masters want him hyping what Johnny calls a “new narrative”:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4172029-ukraine-russia-turns-into-gop-presidential-flashpoint/
Even before Ukraine was well armed with NATO weaponry, Russia found Ukraine to be a far more daunting enemy than it had expected. Russia needs the West to tire of supporting Ukraine, so Russia spreads the story that the West is tiring of supporting Ukraine.
Trump was a Putin stooge. Ramaswamy is Trump’s Mini Me, so also a Putin stooge. Maybe it’s too late for NATO to un-commit from Ukraine, but that doesn’t mean Putin can’t benefit inthe future, when he invades Moldova, or when Belarus gets serious about destabilizing Poland in Putin’s behalf.
When you hear from Johnny, from Yves Smith, from lt, from at least one anonymous in comments here, from Trump or Ramaswamy, you are hearing from Putin.
Ramaswamy made Nikki Lightweight look principled – which is quite the accomplishment. I liked it when Pence turned on Ramaswamy – something about not needing a rookie.
Sure, Ducky, it’s easy to explain why Russia might be portraying and overly positive picture of success in Ukraine…just like US propaganda has been doing for a year and a half.
But what Ducky can’t explain is why the NY Times, BBC, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal are talking about Ukraine’s lack of success…a definite departure from the “Ukraine is winning” narrative. All these newspapers of record have suddenly become Putin’s stooges?
Go ahead, Ducky try to explain why so many major news outlets are talking about Ukraine’s lack of success!!!
Has Seymour Hersh verified these reports or is the Alzheimer’s ward still locked?
Good to know that you’re now accepting as fact news from major corporate media after your long crusade advising others not to believe anything reported by CNN, NY Times, WaPo, BBC, et. al.
Oh, and the atavistiv component of Republicans’ “confidence” which is a pure reflection of politics, that serves Putin’s ends, too.
Hmmmm…. the article was published by NewsPunch, about which…
” Newsweek found that the screenshotted article, titled “Zelensky’s Wife Spent $40,000 Shopping in Paris While Demanding US Give Ukraine Money,” appeared on known hoax news site NewsPunch, widely reported to have disseminated misinformation online.”
from https://www.newsweek.com/zelenska-zelensky-ukraine-russia-paris-france-shopping-spree-1768736.
I also note that slightly farther down on the same page is the following:
“BREAKING NEWS: Nigerians have now been approved to earn US Dollars legitimately, you can earn as much as $10,000 (₦8.5 million naira) Click here to start . Be sure to ask for evidence”
Looks like a high-quality source to me…
“Some posts, such as by the account @Clownworld_, simply shared screenshots of news articles repeating the claim, gathering tens of thousands of engagements on the platform.”
Clownworld! That must be JohnH’s social media account!
The name alone gives away the game. Yet, someone is dumb enough to drink the news Punch.