As the nation outperforms, so too does Wisconsin. Employment exceeds the DoR November forecast.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), DoR forecast (tan +), implied from SPF forecast, 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue (Nov.), SPF and author’s calculations.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast from November was based on the slowdown at the national level built into the S&P Global Market Insights forecast from that month. To the extent that the slowdown has not materialized, it’s not surprising that the forecast is being outperformed.
The SPF implied forecast is based on 2021M07-2024M01 regression in first differences, which indicates each one percentage point increase in US nonfarm payroll employment is associated with a 0.76 percentage point increase in Wisconsin employment (R2 of 0.41). (SPF forecast interpolated to to monthly via quadratic match.)
See also Erik Gunn on Dennis Winters’ assessment.
Addendum, 3/11/2024:
Joe Schulz at WPR has more, noting the construction boom. Here it is illustrated.
Figure 2: Wisconsin change in construction employment (tan), and in rest-of-nonfarm payroll employment (teal), all in thousands, s.a. Source: DWD, and author’s calculations.
Off topic, and just for fun – lawsuits accusing fossil fuel companies of knowingly deceiving the public about climate change are headed for trial:
https://grist.org/accountability/big-oil-climate-lawsuits-trials-attribution-science-exxon/
Plaintiffs in these cases (“the people of…”) amount to about a quarter of the U.S. population.
Too late to get the Supreme Court to step in; they’ve already decided not to.
That is great news. I don’t know how much of a chance these suits have, but apparently, it’s *some* chance, as they haven’t been dismissed. Good luck to them!
Also off topic, the scorecard for Brexit is in. Big slide in goods exports, substantial slide ib growth:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-07/world-economy-latest-brexit-gloom?cmpid=BBD030724_NEF&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
The article reminds us that Brexit was a political trick, meant to fail while keeping anti-Europe, anti-immigrant types voting Torie. Pure cynicism that hasn’t been punished yet, but look at the results. By the way, look at the results of cynicism in the U.S.; Congress, the Supreme Court, the police, the “other party” all at their lowest approval ratings on record. Nice job, faux news, Beck, McConnell, etc.
Well here’s a story I’d hoped we wouldn’t see:
https://asiatimes.com/2024/03/china-philippines-at-a-sea-fight-breaking-point/
A Chinese vessel rammed a Philippine vessel, injuring a crew member. The question raised is whether this is an act of war, which would justify the Phillipines evoking joint-defense treaty protections with the U.S.
Of course, this is not a mystery to the Chinese. Eroding the treaty with creeping affronts is one approach to voiding the treaty as a practical matter. My guess is the U.S. will draw a line so as to reinforce the treaty, though maybe not yet.
I think it’s interesting that people have accused Bernie Sanders and AOC of not being team players. But no one seems to notice how hard Bernie has been swinging the bat for Biden recently. “Bernie brothers” will take notice. Dems who do not vote because their every whim is not being met right now, are only hurting themselves, and only slitting their own throats.
—Uncle Moses circa early 2024
There are all kinds of reasons to say that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is uncooperative, none of them good. You don’t get anything without asking, and they ask. Sometimes, they get part of what they ask for. When they don’t, they typically vote for the Democratic bill anyway.
Bernie isn’t Ralph Nader.
Of course – one of the reasons WI is outperforming in employment is immigrants coming to Wisconsin. Thank goodness – we have a responsible Democrat Senator – Tammy Baldwin – that is helping to build resources in local communities to help people thrive – https://www.baldwin.senate.gov/news/press-releases/senator-baldwin-pushes-biden-administration-to-support-wisconsin-communities-receiving-migrants and communities are adjusting – https://www.wpr.org/social-issues/immigration/whitewater-adjusts-to-changing-population-amid-influx-of-immigrants
Unlike the GOP which takes taxpayer funded trips to the Texas border for a photo op on Fox News.
Nothing more productive than immigrants. They have a dream and a the will to work hard and do dirty jobs in order to make that dream a reality. America was build by immigrants and it is the only way we can continue building rather than just slowly fall backwards.