Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024

From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate.

Source: Predict, accessed 7/24/2024, 4:30pm ET.

Just to confirm that these are not anomalous, here are the RealClearPolitics betting averages:

Source: RCP, accessed 7/24/2024, 4:30pm ET.

46 thoughts on “Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024”

  1. pgl

    https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/brian-kilmeade

    Brian Kilmeade of Fox and Friends referred to the college sorority Kamala Harris was a member of “colored”. Now our Steve Koptis actually thinks joining Brian Kilmeade on Fox to discuss his racist immigration ideas is akin to published in the AER. Go figure.

    Now Fox is trying to deny this story but then do you really trust them?

    1. Noneconomist

      Harris attended the “elitist”HBCU Howard University, unlike Trump and Vance who attended vocational trade schools—Penn and Yale—in Pennsylvania and Connecticut.

  2. pgl

    Harris has a ways to go so hey memo to the MAGA crowd – keep your racist sexist insults coming please.

  3. pgl

    Harris has said Project 2025 is advocating cuts to Social Security. The Project 2025 people claims she is lying as there are no such specifics in their 900 page document.

    But wait – the Heritage drafters of this document have repeatedly said retirement age should be raised to 70. This is more extreme than the Nikki Haley’s plan to cut Social Security benefits. But yea – let’s call Harris a liar, a colored woman, incompetent, lazy, blah, blah, blah. MAGA!

    I guess the Trump playbook for this election is to appeal to voters with IQs in the teens.

    1. Ivan

      Project 2025 is the gift that keep on giving. Those 900 pages have a lot of specifics and they can simply be quoted. Even when a thing is not said directly, it is relatively easy to make the deductions from the text. Just take 9 pages per day for the next 100 days and you can keep the focus on Trumps evil plans.

      Birth control pills works by preventing the fertilized egg from implanting in the uterus – so the birth control pill becomes an abortion pill, if life begins at conception. In other words Trumps Project 2025 will ban birth control pills.

    2. James

      In agriculture/Project 2025 – I like how the Heritage folks are proposing massive farm commodity/crop insurance cuts – and all the MAGA GOPers say oh-no don’t worry commodity growers – we will just cut SNAP – wink, wink – you know the public benefits going to “those people.” – https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4791069-project-2025-farming-food-aid/
      What I wonder is how the MAGAs will message their cuts to NOAA because the data proves climate change is real and happening – I guess all you farmers can just pay for your weather reports from a private service https://www.verifythis.com/article/news/verify/project-2025-verify/project-2025-proposes-dismantling-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-association-noaa/536-2bd4bc29-1454-4305-9036-e026e665dbf6

      1. pgl

        Remember all of CoRev’s detailed ag accounting analyzes? I think he forgot to factor things like this in.

      3. Macroduck

        Fact is, farmers generally like SNAP benefits. Farmers supply. SNAP beneficiaries demand. It’s an economics thing. Which is probably why the Project 2025 people get it wrong.

  4. pgl

    Who said it best: VP contenders audition for slot by slamming Vance

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/who-said-it-best-vp-contenders-audition-for-slot-by-slamming-vance/ar-BB1qzp7W?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6266e660f4ee46fab6769aa5cbf8716a&ei=33

    So the list of people being considered as VP pick by Harris have been listening to the number one MAGA moron JD Vance and giving their reactions. These are classic retorts but come on fellows – knocking down Vance is sort of like kicking a retarded dog.

    1. Macroduck

      J.D. Vance: another episode in the long-running Republican sitcom “a stupid person’s idea of a smart person.”

      Vance counts as a thinker among GOP insiders. Many GOP insiders mistake credentials and rich backing for intelligence – heck, not just GOP insiders. Vance is taken with his image as a thinker, so he keeps spouting “ideas”. Gingrich famously did the same. Paul Ryan played “thinker” when it came to the budget, but that asterisk begs to differ. The list is long.

      Trump recently said he blames Ryan “for all this” in a context which suggests he blames Ryan for Kamala Harris. Anyone have the scoop on the Ryan-Trump thing?

  5. baffling

    republicans are running a convicted felon with a history of mysoginistic behavior and financial bankruptcies. and in the Donalds own words, he is too OLD to be elected president. his thoughts get easily misled and he doesn’t speak coherently. he repeats things and fails to remember common facts. and he is hard of hearing-not sure if that is the old age or simply because he is missing an ear. I am ecstatic that I am not hanging my hopes on a geriatric candidate. that is why trump’s probabilities are collapsing as Harris rises. sucks to be rick Stryker shorting Harris right now. but we know he is a financial nincompoop.

    1. pgl

      I hear Faux News had an interview with some 78 year old felon last night. This felon talked a bit about the 2020 Presidential campaign making two points:

      (1) Harris was really mean to Biden (like the felon says only nice things)

      (2) Biden was a weak candidate. Maybe so but he certainly beat this old felon!

  6. pgl

    rick Stryker:

    Washed up porn star
    Incompetent lawyer
    financial nincompoop

    Now that is a resume!

  7. pgl

    Are you being exploited by AI-powered surveillance pricing?
    https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/23/24204011/ftc-surveillance-pricing-investigation-mckinsey-mastercard-chase

    Surveillance pricing may not be widespread yet, but experts say it’s on the horizon, and consultants are starting to offer surveillance pricing models to businesses across various industries. The Federal Trade Commission announced today that it’s ordering eight companies that offer AI surveillance pricing products and services to turn over information about the impact these pricing schemes have on privacy, competition, and consumer protection, the FTC announced today … The FTC orders were sent to Mastercard, Revionics, Bloomreach, Chase, Task, Pros, Accenture, and McKinsey & Co., the FTC announced in a press release. They were issued under the FTC’s 6(b) authority, which lets it conduct studies without any specific law enforcement purpose. “These eight firms advertise their use of AI and machine learning as part of the services they offer, often claiming they can use historical and real-time customer information to drive unique purchasing experiences,” an FTC official said on a call with reporters ahead of the announcement, adding that none of the firms issued orders have been accused of any wrongdoing. “What we’re trying to do is lift the hood on opaque practices that have the potential to profoundly reshape how consumers purchase goods and services. We want to make sure that surveillance pricing isn’t resulting in harm to certain communities, like women and rural consumers.”

  8. Macroduck

    Some of you may have noticed that I carry on a bit about climate change that results from a rise in atmospheric greenhouse gasses. I want to apologize for being so narrowly focused. There is more our future than just atmospheric warming.

    There are actually nine separate “planetary boundaries” which represent environmental extremes beyond which the living conditions of the Holocene – the environment tal conditions under which human civilization arose – disappear. The rise in temperature due to the release of greenhouse gasses is just one of those nine conditions. As of the latest assessment, six of the nine boundaries have been crossed.

    Here’s a good journalistic treatment ofthe latest “boundaries” report, which includes the suggestion of a tenth boundary:

    https://www.intellinews.com/six-out-of-nine-planetary-boundaries-have-been-crossed-and-a-tenth-has-appeared-335076/

    Here is a more technical treatment:

    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

    You’ll be familiar with most of the boundaries – species loss, ocean acidification, land loss, water loss, soil distruction, nasty chemicals and so on.

    Point is, I and many concerned folk have been too narrowly focused on the warning of the planet surface to pay close attention to the fact that we’re screwing ourselves six ways to Sunday – could be seven.

    Our way of life is harmful to our way of life in a lot of ways, and we’ve gone over the limit in most of them.

  9. Macroduck

    More environmental stuff – China’s greenhouse gas emissions:

    Not long ago, I linked to a report claiming that China’s greenhouse gas output had peaked. I was dubious. Bloomberg has a report which suggests how that report could be correct. The biggest recent change in China’s economy is the collapse of the construction sector. Construction generally means cement, and cement is terrible stuff when it comes to CO2 emissions.

    https://archive.ph/r4udu

    From the article:

    “For every 100 tons of Portland cement, about 57 tons of carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere, and the sector worldwide accounts for about 8% of emissions. China consumes half the total, so a 20% fall in local cement output translates into a decline in global carbon pollution of nearly 1%.”

    So hurray for China’s construction disaster.

  10. Rick Stryker

    Menzie,

    Thanks for identifying another great trading opportunity. Indeed, the market is back to pre-debate and shorting Border Czar Kamala is now cheaper. BC Kamala is in her honeymoon phase in which the Dems and media are working hard to burnish her image. She might be even cheaper to short in the next few weeks. Eventually, the public will figure out that she’s to the left of Bernie Sanders and vote accordingly. I think I’ll take advantage of these low prices and increase my short.

    BTW, did you see Trump eagle playing with Bryson DeChambeau? Biden was senile enough to accept Trump’s golf challenge, which would have been quite the humiliation for Biden. Good thing for Biden he turned tail and ran after Trump knocked him out of the race.

    3. pgl

      Hey – thanks for the youtubes of Trump cheating on his golf cart. Look – I’ve never been a great golfer but damn Trump’s swing makes him look like an old cat lady.

    4. joseph

      Ha, ha. That’s hilarious. Only using Trump math could two shots on a par 3 hole be an eagle.

      Oh, wait — if you check it out, it turns out they are playing from the forward women’s tees! for a special reality TV exhibition to see how low they can score. That’s how you turn a par 4 into a par 3. Classic Trump. Playing from the women’s tees and calling it an eagle. He always cheats.

      And Rick Stryker falls for the grift. He is so naively gullible, it’s adorable.

      1. pgl

        MSN had a long (and boring) story on this. It noted Trump has claimed he has made 8 all in ones but it was in the same paragraph where the story is known for Trump cheating a lot.

      2. Rick Stryker

        In Joseph math, a par 4 somehow becomes a par 3. That hole they played is a par 4 hole. It’s par 4 regardless of what tee you play from. In golf, you select the tee based on age and skill level. Trump is 78 years old and they played from the red tee, which is perfectly appropriate for a man of his age. Most 30-year golfers could not eagle from the red tee on that hole. Bryson DeChambeau, one of the best golfers in the world, called it an eagle on the video, dummy. You don’t think Bryson knows the rules of golf?

        1. pgl

          You are a really stupid little twit if you do not realize that Bryson DeChambeau was promoting his youtube page. Look we all get Trump cheats at golf. We also get you are the dumbest troll ever. Which I guess all you can talk about on an economist blog is golf played by a whale and some worthless little betting site. Get a life troll. After all – the Paris Olympics are on – not that you’d recognize any of the sporting events.

        2. pgl

          “you select the tee based on age and skill level.”

          Hey yee of little intelligence. You just made Joseph’s point. Trump’s skill level is not so great. Leave it to a MAGA moron to introduce a stupid conservation and then dumb it down ever further.

        3. baffling

          “It’s par 4 regardless of what tee you play from.”
          that is not completely accurate. the same hole can be a par 4 from the men’s tee, and a par 3 from the women’s tee. they are not required to be the same. it is quite possible by trump using the women’s tee, he was playing a par 3 hole. it will be noted on the golf course score card for that hole. rick, don’t make blanket statements in an effort to defend the senile old man who uses golf cart’s and women’s tees to play a round of golf. he could not walk a round of golf on the blue tees. he is much too old to be running for president. and your second in command, vance, is nothing but a joke. gonna be a bad November for magaland.

        4. Baffling

          “ You don’t think Bryson knows the rules of golf?”
          You dont think bryson knows he shouldn’t hit from girls tee?

      3. joseph

        Rick, Rick, Rick. This is so embarrassingly silly. During the last debate Trump bragged that he had just won two club championships. “I just won two club championships, not even senior, two regular club championships.”

        Now club championships are played from the men’s tees. But for Trump’s eagle, he didn’t play from the men’s tee. He didn’t even play from the senior’s tee. He played from the ladies tee which is the shortest distance.

        The whole match was a scripted reality show setup. The gimmick was to see if a professional golfer, DeChambeau, could shoot a 50 on a par 72 course by playing from the women’s tees. Trump says “I get to play from the ladies’s tees? Sign me up!”

        This is the guy who claims to win men’s championships. He’s such a liar. If you wanted to be honest, you could have just said that he got a ladies eagle.

        1. pgl

          You have to understand something. Little Ricky is incompetent at economics, law, public policy, and even being a porn star in the modern age. So little Ricky has to talk about golf as it is all he even barely knows. Then again – the incompetency of Trump was when he was President tells us all Trump is decent at is hitting a golf ball. MAGA!

    5. Baffling

      You will say anything to distract from the fact you are stuck with the geriatric trump and the joke vance. How does it feel to hold the losing ticket AGAIN rick?

  11. pgl

    Georgia Republican shifts support to Harris after backing Biden

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/georgia-republican-shifts-support-to-harris-after-backing-biden/ar-BB1qzQ9y?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9b85b3a9f858434aa2064f018339f433&ei=6

    Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) will be supporting Vice President Harris in November after previously saying he would back President Biden. Duncan endorsed Harris in an interview on The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s “Politically Georgia” podcast that aired Wednesday. He has been a staunch critic of former President Trump and revealed in May that he would be supporting Biden instead of the former president for the White House. He was asked on the podcast whether he has or will be endorsing Harris. He said after Biden’s poor showing at the debate last month, he thought the Democratic Party would do the “right thing” and have Biden step aside and “let somebody else step up.”

    “And so that obviously looks to be Vice President Harris, and look, if she’s the nominee, yeah, let’s do this,” he said on the podcast. “Let’s beat Donald Trump the best possible way we can. If that takes me endorsing her, if that takes me voting for her, if that takes me speaking at a convention, so be it.”

  14. pgl

    I listened to how Maria Bartiromo tried to dismiss that 2.8% REAL GDP growth as she noted that prices rose by 2.3% at an annualized rate suggesting we have to subtract 2.3 from 2.8. I guess Maria the bimbo did not read this:

    https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

    “Current‑dollar GDP increased 5.2 percent at an annual rate”

    Shall we go through this SLOWLY for this fat ugly bimbo.

    The reported REAL growth number is nominal GDP growth (5.2%) minus the price growth (2.3%) which is why BEA wrote:

    ‘Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024’

    And you wonder why people who watch Faux News are all so utterly stupid.

    1. baffling

      she has not been relevant since before she left cnbc. nobody in the real business world takes her seriously anymore. nobody.

  16. pgl

    Tuberville on migrants: ‘Most of them are garbage’
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tuberville-on-migrants-most-of-them-are-garbage/ar-BB1qzNAO?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ac96fb88b732406ba01d76ba80826aa1&ei=13

    Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said Tuesday that most recent immigrants who have come across the U.S.-Mexico border are “garbage.” Speaking to Larry Kudlow on Fox Business’s “Kudlow,” Tuberville segued from criticism of Vice President Harris as a presidential candidate to his views on immigration. “I mean, how can you put somebody in charge of a situation where you let 15, possibly even 20 million people come into our country? Now some of these people are good, but most of them are garbage. They come from jails and prisons in other countries,” he said. Tuberville repeated a series of false or misleading claims that have become Republican talking points, including the number of migrants who’ve come to the United States, Harris’s role in border management and the idea that Latin American countries are purposefully sending criminals to the border.

    MAGA should change their name to Racism R Us. And these racist cockroaches are growing. First we had Steve Koptis and Bruce Hall and now it seems little Ricky Stryker has joined this gang of hate. Little Ricky boy has even called Harris the Border Czar, which of course is a bit of a lie.

    Now it is true she went to Central America to talk to their governments. Did you know immigration from these nations was a mere 25,000 last month. Not bad Harris. But the low IQ trolls here that support Trump’s racism are all dumber than JD Vance and that football coach who pretends to be a Senator.

  17. joseph

    You have to admit, it’s funny Rick Stryker bragging about what a great golfer and manly man Trump is while playing from the women’s tees.

    1. pgl

      One of the stupid things little Ricky highlighted admitted Trump was over 150 pounds overweight. Yea – such a great athlete. Snicker.

  18. pgl

    ““Elite universities have become expensive day care centers for coddled children” – J D Vance who got to go to Yale Law School without paying for it. Oh wait – he served in the Marines AS A JOURNALIST. I guess he couldn’t handle a gun. But while at Yale – he was a real athlete as in flag football.

    Yea – J D Vance is one coddled child!

    1. baffling

      trump has a degree from Penn, and vance has a degree from Yale. elite universities do indeed seem to have a problem.

      1. baffling

        and now trump wants to bail out of the debates. because he will be the old loser on the stage. what a coward.

      2. pgl

        Wharton (Penn) is not proud it allowed Trump to barely graduate but that is all he need – barely get by.

        1. Baffling

          Back in those days, the iveys had there own dei type of programs for preferential treatment . It was called legacies. Instead of promoting diversity, it promoted homogeneity.

Comments are closed.