Growth in Swing States

As measured by the coincident index, over the last 3 months:

Figure 1: 3 month growth in coincident index map. Swing states outlined. Source: Philadelphia Fed.

All the swing states are growing faster than 0.6% q/q, or 2.4% q/q annualized, with the exception of Michigan, which is growing 0.2% q/q (0.6% q/q annualized). For comparison, the US coincident index is growing 0.6% q/q.

19 thoughts on “Growth in Swing States”

  1. pgl

    Arizona and North Carolina looking quite strong! Trump-Vanc e to ask for a Congressional investigation of the Philly FED.

    1. Macroduck

      Israel has been struck by Houthis and Hezbollah. Somebody is making a point.

      I wonder if this latest attack is meant to blunt any domestic benefit Netanyahu could hope for from visiting the U.S.

      1. Ivan

        It should be noted that these were not Jews. They were people in an occupied area that has refused to become Israeli citizens. This will blunt the domestic outrage. It also makes the idea that the rockets were not from Hezbollah (Hezbollah claims they did not shoot them) because why would they target occupied areas. Would it be beyond Netanyahu to seek political benefits, even if it meant killing a few non-jews?

        1. Moses Herzog

          I think I know the answer to that last question is the death of a certain amount of Israelis doesn’t bother Netanyahu enough to prevent/stop it. He is just as pragmatic as donald trump or Xi Jinping.

  3. Macroduck

    Somebody should spread that map all over Ohio. Ohio is run by Republicans. Ohio is low-growth. Want better growth? Get better leadership.

    1. Baffling

      Ohio is a lost cause. Most of my family is there. In my lifetime it went from a democratic labor stronghold to a republican maga cesspool. Love my family, but most of them are getting exactly what they asked for. A raw deal. Then they say thank you may i have another.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Oklahoma is even worse and has you beat. In this case Oklahomans say thank you after being GR’ed if you catch my vulgarity.

  4. pgl

    Now J.D. Vance thinks saying Kamala Harris is not Martin Luther King Jr. is a winning strategy. Hey cat lady dude – do you think MLK would support a racist like you? Seriously?

    Trump may have chosen the dumbest person possible to be his running mate. Even dumber than MAGA moron Bruce Hall!

    1. Ivan

      This one seems to be the gift that keeps on giving to the democrats. He think is is out there to round up the votes of the red neck racists. Don’t seem to understand that those are already in the bag and he is supposed to rope in a totally different group. Trump chose based on how much they “love him” – I guess that automatically means he ends up with a moron.

      1. baffling

        if trump had selected a boring type like pence, he had a better chance. doubling down on maga jr, but one who talks out of both sides of his mouth, was a poor decision. especially with the ascension of harris. vance talks too much to be of value in a general election. he is going to be constantly claiming “that is not what i said” when it is on recorded audio and video. people will tire of that con. not to mention he has the charisma of a dead tree. he may be the only person who lies more than trump!

  5. pgl

    I’m providing a link to a 1998 NBER paper on the 50% tariffs passed by President McKinley

    https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6835/w6835.pdf

    I searched for something on this as right wing historian Neil Ferguson was on GPS actually praising Trump for his trade protectionist ideas. I guess McKinley was a fellow Republican so Ferguson had to dig deep to find someone to argue Trump is a fine smart Republican. Yea – that’s Ferguson for you.

  6. James

    I have seen a couple of corporate media takes – “Can Harris maintain momentum?” Maybe the media story should be “Are we seeing the long promised shift from Baby Boomers to the next generation?” Maybe youngers voters do not want the GOP’s tax cuts for billionaires, federal abortion bans, and cuts to Social Security?
    “One group said it has registered over 100,000 new voters since U.S. President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race. Vote.org said that 84% of voters registered in the new wave are under age 35. Nearly 1 in 5 new registrees is 18 years old. Andrea Hailey, the group’s CEO, said that “since 2020, we have led the largest voter registration drive in U.S. history,” with more than 7.8 million people registered. ” https://www.commondreams.org/news/u-s-voter-registration

    1. Ivan

      The movement is swift and easy to underestimate. It’s part of the backlash against the backlash from misogynists and rednecks. Woman and young people are seeing Kamala as their chance to roll back SCOTUS and red state overreach. She can inspire them to think it is possible, in a way that no old white man can. When she starts prosecuting her campaign against the Orange felon, we will get some real fireworks. Trump absolutely cannot handle a strong woman and will react in exactly the way that will turn off young and woman voters.

      I hope Biden will begin to poke at Trump just enough to get him distracted to attack Joe’s golf game, while Kamala gets her campaign organized. Fun as it is we can only stretch the Vance distractions so far.

      1. baffling

        as was stated a while ago, the supreme court overruling of roe v wade was not what trump wanted. he knew that was too far. and you are seeing the ramifications. it is one thing to rile up your supporters. quite another to rile up the rest of america.

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