That’s a title from FT. Remember when Trump promised 4% growth (in May 2017)? How did that turn out?
Figure 1: GDP (black), and 4% growth counterfactual (red), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, and author’s calculations.
Some apologists will argue that, but for the pandemic, Mr. Trump’s goal would’ve been achieved. That might be the case (although as noted pre-pandemic, that was highly unlikely). However, even before the pandemic, at the NBER peak, real GDP was 1.2 trillion 2017$ below the Trump promise.
Same answer applies to Trump’s promise of an economic boom as applies to Trump’s claim that he could have brought the hostages home without giving anything.
Biden: “Why didn’t he do that when he was president” followed by a mic drop as he walked off the stage.
https://www.factcheck.org/2022/12/trump-swapped-prisoners-too/
If we’re to believe the orange abomination, his release of Taliban prisoners is “no big deal”. That’s trump’s example of great negotiating?? Releasing Taliban out to freedom and bombing people?? How does that show “strength” by the orange fat slob?? It’s not enough he and Jared Kushner gave cheap blow jobs to all the Saudis?? That’s what Bruce Hall views as “strength”??
“I think, the Trump Administration will do everything it can to unleash private sector growth, along with expanding fiscal policy.” – PeakTrader. Well we did get budget busting tax cuts but anyone who remotely gets macroeconomics would have realized that fiscal stimulus in a full employment economy crowds out investment and net exports. Peaky of course never got that.
Back in 2017 Trump likely got his 4% figure by reading John Cochrane talking about removing the weeds from the garden (deregulation). Cochrane likely thought his utter BS was solid micro foundations but no – it was his usual BS.
Our echo chamber of one has a Substack now:
https://www.grumpy-economist.com/
Present your “Extreme Masochist Membership” card upon entry.
Here’s the thing about old Grumpy. He certainly writes a lot of words but in two blog posts, this fake economist cannot manage to talk about oligopoly power. Yea he lives in an ancient world that never heard of economists from even the damn 19th century.
Trump’s fury over Harris’ switch with Biden is increasingly driving his campaign
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/16/politics/trump-fury-harris-switch-campaign-analysis/index.html
Trump’s team did their best for him on Thursday. Someone went to a local supermarket and stocked up on groceries, including Cheerios, tubs of coffee and ketchup, and provided Trump with charts showing the high cost of goods in the Biden era.
Well Trump had to have another fattening breakfast after all. But where were the Big Macs?
Trump must eat a lot of bacon as he keeps saying its price is through the roof:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000704111
Average Price: Bacon, Sliced (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average
Up 18% since Biden took office. And Trump wants us to believe it has quadrupled. I guess Trump learned arithmetic from Bruce Hall.
Trump Says Civilian Award He Gave To Donor ‘Much Better’ Than Medal Of Honor
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/politics/trump-says-civilian-award-he-gave-to-donor-much-better-than-medal-of-honor/ar-AA1oThLw?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Former President Donald Trump said Thursday the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, was “much better” than the Congressional Medal of Honor, the nation’s highest military decoration, because soldiers who receive the latter had to be severely injured or killed to receive it.
WTF? I bet those “suckers and losers” hate Trump even more than faux marine JD Vance.
The former president said Thursday that he wasn’t comfortable with companies threatening to fire strikers. “I want companies to get workers that are going to love them and work for a wage that lets the company make a profit so they can go and expand,” he said.
Wait – Trump praised Musk for union busting. Oh – companies should send love letters to workers who agree to work for lower wages. Got it.
In other news – Trump claimed efforts to reduce monopoly power would raise prices and also be illegal.
Excuse me but what moron is giving Trump these moronic ideas? Come on Bruce Hall – fess up!
Watch the video of Trump NJ Press Conference yesterday – Trump does not know what a “supply chain” is – let alone be able to coherently criticize Biden/Harris Inflation Reduction Act – the written reports try to put together some type of coherent narrative from his rambling nonsense/B.S. – https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-attack-kamala-harris-press-conference-bedminster-00174312 – one example – He falsely claimed that “virtually 100 percent of the net job creation in the last year has gone to migrants,” adding that he heard the growth was “actually beyond that number, 100 percent,”
And the Republicans want to put Trump in charge of the country and give him the ability to dictate Fed Reserve policy – Trump is dangerously unfit to be President.
If you do watch the video – forewarned – most of it is Trump complaining like a spoiled 12 year old who can’t comprehend that he will be disciplined for the first time – “They want me to be nice. But they’re not being nice to me. They want to put me in prison,” Trump said.
He falsely claimed that “virtually 100 percent of the net job creation in the last year has gone to migrants,” adding that he heard the growth was “actually beyond that number, 100 percent,”
Dr. Chinn has an excellent post on this lie when it came out from that obnoxious Heritage dude.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-press-conference-new-jersey-misinformation-fact-check-f8ed52f64a12cf450b0d0f2591c9d92b
FACT FOCUS: Trump blends falsehoods and exaggerations at rambling NJ press conference
It’s a long list exposing some weird lies!
Meanwhile Harris/Walz outline a comprehensive progressive economic plan based on building out the middle class – “Kamala Harris unveils populist policy agenda, with $6,000 credit for newborns – The vice president endorses government action on housing, groceries, medical debt, drugs and other issues.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/08/16/kamala-harris-2024-policy-child-tax-credit/
“Perhaps Harris’s most surprising policy announcement was her plan to ban “price gouging” in grocery and food prices. While details were sparse, the measure would include authorizing the Federal Trade Commission to impose large fines on grocery stores that impose “excessive” price hikes on customers”
Harris and her economic advisors are noting the oligopoly power of food processes and using anti-trust to increase competition. Makes a lot of sense even if MAGA moron Bruce Hall and clueless Noah Smith don’t get it.
BTW she just said she would also expand the Earned Income Tax Credit.
Trump is not able to stay focussed on his own campaigns themes. He constantly gets distracted and dives into fits of rage against Harris. She and Walz just need to needle Trump with a sentence or two every day to keep him off track. The narrative of a rambling angry old orange “used to be” writes itself with plenty of assists from Trump himself.
I have an idea. Have a few people stalk both Trump and Vance and every chance they get – jump in front of them screaming “WEIRD”!
I think I’m understanding more and more this whole Musk/trump butt-buddies thing. trump shits on his own voters and Musk shits on his own customers.
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/cybertruck-buyers-get-unusual-surprise-a-brand-new-truck-delivered-with-dirt-and-mud-eccd274a
Wait until Melania finds out “the donald” is now a switch hitter.
Kevin Drum has a new post on inflation which did not strike me as particularly useful. You may disagree with me but I want to highlight one of the comments which asserted inflation was already ramping up during the end of the Trump era. So I checked. CPI rose by almost 2% from June 2000 to December 2000, which translates into a 4% per annum increase.
Now Trump will brag that prices did not rise during the first half of 2020 but then a COVID shut down of the economy tends to do that.
Another episode of Trump opening his mouth and inserting his foot:
Trump warns that if Kamala Harris wins, “everybody gets health care”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/trump-warns-that-if-kamala-harris-wins-everybody-gets-health-care/ar-AA1oVnyZ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6df0549723eb4c42938cd96ad641e337&ei=11
Former President Donald Trump falsely accused Vice President Kamala Harris of wanting to create a “communist system” in which “everybody gets health care.” During his press conference at his golf club in Bedminister, New Jersey, the GOP presidential candidate warned against what he described as the dangers of his opponent. A Harris’ spokesperson told NBC News “The VP will not push single payer as president.”
Wait a second. Would it not be a good thing if everyone American had some version of decent health care? Oh I forgot. Trump only wants health care for white people!
https://x.com/SwissWatchGuy/status/1824251210242670732
No. F*ck this guy. He says the presidential medal of freedom he gave to one of his billionaire donors is better than the Medal of Honor, which is a the highest military award, given for heroism in battle, often posthumously.
I agree Peter!
JD Vance in 2021: Companies backing abortion rights really want ‘cheap labor’
https://www.yahoo.com/news/jd-vance-2021-companies-backing-114303573.html
Vance is such a lying disgusting scumbag that he tried to claim Stacy Abrams said this. She certainly did not. Abrams was interview last night and she blasted this piece of trash in every way.
Harris to push for lower grocery prices as Trump brands policy ‘communist’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/harris-to-push-for-lower-grocery-prices-as-trump-brands-policy-communist/ar-AA1oVhr1?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b5785e12fe5a4d0c800ace8889ea615a&ei=11
‘Kamala Harris has pushed for lower grocery prices with a new ban on “price gouging”, as Donald Trump criticised her for supporting “communist” price controls. The vice-president has announced a series of economic policy proposals ahead of a speech on Friday, as both presidential contenders turn their campaigns to the issue of inflation. Price gouging, a term for unjustified inflation by retailers, is set to be banned at the federal level under a Harris presidency with a new policy targeting corporations.’
Can we stop right there as this reporting is off the mark. It is not the retail margins as much as it is the high profit margins for food processers. Oligopoly power in the processing segment is well known. And reducing this market power is good old fashion competition – not communism.
OK Trump is a moron but can we expect something better from our pathetic press?
It took me all of 2 seconds to find this paper. But our moronic press cannot?
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajae.12115
Joint Oligopsony-Oligopoly Power in Food Processing Industries: Application to the us Broiler Industry
Stephen F. Hamilton, David L. Sunding
Food manufacturers and retailers mediate transactions between farm product markets and finished product markets for a large number of agricultural products. In such settings, producers at the intermediary stages of the supply chain have the potential to exercise market power jointly over agricultural producers in the upstream farm product market and over consumers in the downstream market for finished goods. In this paper, we examine settings in which food processors jointly exercise oligopsony power over farmers in the upstream market and oligopoly power over consumers in the downstream market. We demonstrate how forward contracts in the procurement market affect equilibrium prices in the downstream consumer market, allowing food processors to raise margins by leveraging oligopsony power. We apply our model to the US broiler industry and show that tournament contracts for live chicken procurement can be employed as an instrument to extend spatial oligopsony power in the upstream procurement market to soften price competition in the downstream processed goods market.
PGL – thanks for this – I worked in the poultry business in the early 1990s as a food technologist – well known that the 6 or 7 major processors (at that time) had oligopsony power and vertical integration of feed operations, growing operations, and processors – that Tyson and Purdue and others had developed starting in the 1950-60s.
Now – the poultry industry is even more highly concentrated, with four companies controlling around 60% of the market: Tyson, Perdue, Sanderson Farms, and Pilgrim’s Pride.
Tyson – of course – controls large segments of beef and pork.
Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef control 85% of the beef market. Tyson has a weekly capacity of 155,000 head of beef.
and
Tyson, JBS, Hormel, and WH Group control about 67% of the pork market. Tyson has a weekly capacity of 471,000 head of pork.
Does anyone remember Trump ordering U.S. meat processing plants to stay open despite coronavirus fears??? https://www.reuters.com/article/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trump-to-order-us-meat-processing-plants-to-stay-open-despite-coronavirus-fear-idUSKCN22A2V0/
Sure – Trump admin couldn’t properly protect workers – https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2021/12/30/tyson-lawsuit-over-covid-19-conditions-waterloo-iowa-meatpacking-plant-sent-state-court/9054717002/ – but just water under the bridge in the Trump admin with a million+ excess deaths due to their incompetence and corruption – https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trumps-policy-failures-have-exacted-a-heavy-toll-on-public-health1/
Thanks for the accurate information from someone who actually worked in this sector!
The August 15 disclosure also revealed that the former president, who has compared himself to Jesus Christ, made a whopping $300,000 royalty payment for endorsing “The Greenwood Bible,” which he began promoting not long after being ordered to pay hundreds of millions from his civil fraud judgment.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-s-financial-disclosure-reveals-1-million-in-crypto-and-a-lucrative-side-hustle-with-bibles/ar-AA1oVgsk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f39cfaee21814e01a31dbcfe0b62d43a&ei=10
No Christian should support this blasphemous blow hard.
At the risk of ruining Bruce Hall’s day – it seems that Swift Boat campaign utterly flopped!
Americans’ first impressions of Walz are positive, negative for Vance
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/americans-first-impressions-of-walz-are-positive-negative-for-vance/ar-AA1oUcvg?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=bbd7fb504013416c917a63c460e54371&ei=10
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll finds 32 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of Vance and 42 percent find him unfavorable, a net favorability rating of -10 points. For Walz, 39 percent are favorable and 30 percent are unfavorable, giving him a net positive rating of nine points.
Maybe we should have a Dog Owners for Harris zoom call!
‘Dog owners should not feel safe’: Columnist flags new Vance attack on childless Americans
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dog-owners-should-not-feel-safe-columnist-flags-new-vance-attack-on-childless-americans/ar-AA1oVwhx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=072c04a213ac4933bee6f716e6e36b2c&ei=19
J.D. Vance used the words “essential weapon” to praise the Heritage Foundation president’s new book which includes a tirade against a surprising subject: dog parks. This point appears in a new analysis from Salon’s Amanda Marcotte as she argued both American “cat ladies” and dog owners should be concerned about Donald Trump’s running mate’s views. “Dog owners should not feel safe from the ire of Vance and his friends,” Marcotte wrote Friday. “Jokes aside, the fury over pets underscores what’s really going on with Vance and the neo-patriarchal movement he represents.” … “We are now all realizing that it’s time to circle the wagons and load the muskets,” Vance wrote in his introduction. “In the fights that lay ahead, these ideas are an essential weapon.”
Among the ideas expressed by Roberts is that dog parks present a danger to the nation’s future. “Roberts targets the Swampoodle dog park in Washington, D.C.,” Media Matters reports, “for having too much room for dogs to play and not enough for children, blaming this on ‘the antifamily culture shaping legislation, regulation, and enforcement throughout our sprawling government.'” Roberts argued, as Vance has, that childless Americans aren’t as invested in the nation’s future as parents are. “Getting married and having kids…gives you skin in the game for the future of your country,” Roberts wrote. “It forces you to grow up, give up childish things, and live in the real world.”
Forget weird – these clowns are certifiable nutcases.
Trump scores another hit (self goal):
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/16/politics/trump-medal-of-honor/index.html
Apparently the congressional Medal of Honor for military service is “less” than the Presidential Medal of Honor for civilians – because the military people are often wounded or even dead, but the civilians are healthy and beautiful. That is not just weird that is STUPID. Way to bring back the old wounds from slurs against McCain for being shut down daddy bone spurs.
And better still – Vance backed Trump on this disgraceful statement. I bet most Marines wish Vance would admit he was never one of them.
Even more “experts” cribbing from my comments here! Population decline and policies to address economic consequences:
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/confronting-low-fertility-rates-and-population-decline
The focus of this essay is economic growth when population is declining, particularly in OECD countries. So, we live the richest material lives in the history of humanity, having ravaged the environment in the process of generating this prosperity, and the critical issue is additional growth? Not quality of life or even growth in material welfare, which correlates to output per capita, but continued increase in output?
Idiot.
what trump oversaw was one of the most dramatic economic collapses in modern history. the total shutdown of the us economy. he watched as the medical system was overwhelmed by a pandemic that he denied and resulted in millions of deaths. and he oversaw the weaponization of government agencies for his political and personal gain. anybody who still supports the womanizing convicted felon is in denial of the historical record.