Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Here’s a picture of various series relevant to the manufacturing sector.
Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale), and real valued added (red), all in logs, 2007M12=0, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Note: 2007M12 is NBER’s business cycle peak. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER.
With employment and production essentially flat (but below end-2023 peaks), I’d be hard pressed to say manufacturing is in recession, but here recession is in the eye of the beholder (given there’s not a technical definition of recession for a subsector).
Note that GS believes the aggregate (NFP) benchmark revision of -818K is too large; rather, theyu believe that given less than total coverage of QCEW and likely revisions, the aggregate revision is more like -300K. This would suggest a smaller downward revision in manufacturing employment.
‘we think that today’s downward revision to payroll growth exaggerates the degree to which job growth has been overstated by about 500k, both because the QCEW likely excludes many unauthorized immigrants who are not in the unemployment insurance system but were correctly picked up in payrolls initially, and because the QCEW itself has tended to be revised up in recent years. As a result, we think the true downward revision should be about 300k or 25k per month, which would imply that monthly job growth over this period was closer to 215-220k than the initially reported 242k, but not as low as the 174k pace implied by the revisions.’
– Goldman Sachs
I knew a few people who worked for GS. I hope they get home OK as something tells me that the MAGA crowd is about to send some of its Proud Boys down to south Manhattan after this.
Trump Auditions ‘Common Sense’ Branding Against ‘Weird’ Taunts
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-auditions-common-sense-branding-against-weird-taunts/ar-AA1p8Cvq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=fc88fa08902a4b1f96fb7df573c36865&ei=9
Donald Trump cast himself as a purveyor of “common sense” during a trip to Michigan, as he looked to counter a central theme of Democrats’ convention in Chicago: that he and running mate JD Vance are “weird” extremists. For Trump, the argument underscores a crucial concern facing his campaign — how to win back voters turned off by frequent forays into culture wars and a proclivity for embracing divisive figures and movements. The critique from Democrats has also complicated the Republican candidate’s own efforts to paint his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, as herself outside the mainstream.
Trump wants to be seen as the nice guy? How precious!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-team-rips-kkk-related-criticism-of-campaign-stopping-in-howell-michigan/ar-AA1p8iz2?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9800d0fca325401292fb17c697770ee6&ei=7
Donalds was asked about why Trump decided to host a rally in Howell, Michigan, the same town that saw a group of pro-Nazis carrying swastika banners with the message “we love Hitler” written on them last month. Donalds dismissed insinuations that Trump chose Howell to win over voters who were sympathetic to the white nationalists. “There are good Americans in every city, so President Trump decides to go somewhere to see the people who have been struggling under the terrible policies of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and he chooses to rally,” Donalds said. “That is the decision to support those people who love this country, who love our Constitution, who want all people to thrive, to succeed. Any neo-Nazi crazy person that throws up swastikas, I don’t want nothing to do with them, and neither does President Trump.”
Byron must have loved it when Trump said in 2017 “there are good people on both sides”!
The best 2 minutes of the DNC (well until Michele Obama spoke)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzyTA-XfmY4:
Lil Jon at the Democratic National Convention
The Georgia delegation rocked the place with an assist from the performer from Atlanta! Turn Down for What!
The Obamas Fire Up Dem Convention With Penis Joke And Real Talk
https://morningmemo.talkingpointsmemo.com/p/the-obamas-fire-up-dem-convention?fbclid=IwY2xjawEzLPBleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHf3FGPjxlqFI2fdcabG3kd0w1NONJFvAf9h_alC4w09V0XEDS50EuUq9mw_aem_6dJtTpGhGOLBo7XQa1RTJw
Not going there – you’ll have to read this one for yourself!
So Chinny is saying a manufacturing recession is being manufactured! ( attempted aussie humour)
your political conventions are deadset boring. Even the Obamas can’t make it interesting. Maybe Bill can do it.
Oh come on. I am very cynical about those things but I thought the speeches were pretty good. I’d give them a solid 7 on a 1-to-10 scale.