Be prepared. It doesn’t look good for Wisconsin (just like Trump 1.0 didn’t but this time there isn’t $18 billion on tap to bail out the soybean farmers).
Source: McClelland et al. (2024).
These estimated impacts are for imports and might result in industry-specific employment increases, but almost certainly will cause manufacturing-wide employment decreases as input costs rise (recall, estimates are that the 2018 tariffs cost on net 175,000 manufacturing jobs). For nationwide macro impacts see this post. What happened last time Trump raised tariffs is that China (and other countries) retaliated. China retaliated by imposing tariffs on soybeans, and a whole range of other manufactured and commodity goods.
Figure 1: Wisconsin exports of goods in millions $ (blue), in millions of 2000$ (tan), n.s.a. Wisconsin exports deflated by US export price index, 2000=100. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Trump administration shaded orange. Red dashed line at announcement of Section 232, 301 actions. Source: Census, BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Real exports from Wisconsin declined (manufactured and commodities) as retaliation took hold.
As for soybeans, here’s a picture of the volume of US soybean exports — essentially Brazil stepped in.
Source: Colusi, et al. (2024). Marking for trade war in 2018 by author.
Interestingly, agricultural economists believe that Trump policies will hurt the agricultural sector more than Harris policies (AgWeb farm journal), at a time when more than half of agricultural economists believe the ag economy is in recession.
Source: Agweb (Oct. 10, 2024).
What ‘Farmers for Trump’ Say about Another Trade War
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/what-farmers-for-trump-say-about-another-trade-war/ar-AA1t0ovh?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=7a05cf6d3e024b3ab3c302b6ef3f7260&ei=37
This discussion has a bit of actual economics including how the original Trump trade war hurt US soybean prices. And there’s:
“In a September meeting with Pennsylvania farmers, Trump said farmers did “great” during his administration, and he threatened to impose 200% import tariffs on John Deere farming equipment if Deere & Co. moves manufacturing to Mexico.”
Same old moronic Trump. This tariff would increase the input costs for farmers but Trump tries to convince them that this good for them.
If the world did indeed sink into a 100% tax on things US import and retaliatory 100% tax on things we export, then John Deere would be forced to continue a small operation in the US – to serve that small market – and a big operation outside US (maybe in Mexico) to serve the rest of the world. Prices in their small US market would go u, in part because they would be less cost effective, but mainly because they would have no competition. Just another scheme to let the rich milk consumers.
Lots of useful information – thanks.
Trump had claimed that his tariffs on Chinese imports raised hundreds of billions of dollars. Funny thing – in 2018 Census tells us that total tariffs from all sources was less than $80 billion. Either Trump is dumber than even Bruce Hall when it comes to preK arithmetic or he is just lying as usual.
“but this time there isn’t $18 billion on tap to bail out the soybean farmers”. The legacy of “Christian” Speaker Mike Johnson.
The ag economists surveyed get it but the farmers surveyed strike me as dumber than CoRev.
Only a little off topic – China’s industrial profits:
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/china-industrial-profits-extend-drop-deflation-takes-toll
China’s real estate and banking sectors, household demand and government policy keep the headlines full, but the factory sector is wheezing, too.
The problem in China’s factory sector is at least 2 years old:
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/10/20/china-factory-of-the-world-is-losing-its-manufacturing-dominance.html
But then, before that was the early part of the Covid pandemic, so the problem is now over 4 years old. It’s getting hard to watch.
I remember talking to some commodity farmers that I know in 2018 and saying that China takes food security seriously and will seek out reliable suppliers for their corn and soybeans – but they said “Trump is playing 3D chess!” and so – oh geez – Brazil has replaced U.S. as the top ag commodity exporter – The U.S. Farm Bureau can now stop saying their B.S. – “American Farmers Feed the World” (and now should say “Brazilian Farmers Feed the World”) – the one thing Trump trade war did was destroy export markets for U.S. farmers.
I would also mention that next Trump administration is planning mass deportations – so good luck Wisconsin dairy farms in finding workers –
Also – anyone voting for Trump needs to understand that Trump is planning to bankrupt Social Security https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-harris-social-security-bankruptcy-retirement-taxes-rcna177268 and his billionaire buddy Elon Musk is planning to cut all govt benefit programs https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-28/elon-musk-we-can-cut-2-trillion-from-us-budget-video – yeah – he means you – white rural Trump supporter on Social Security Disability Insurance
In interesting news in Wisconsin – I did find this map of small donor giving as a potential proxy for voting – very encouraging – even the collar counties of Milwaukee (a Republican stronghold and their biggest source of GOP votes in the state) – are supporting Harris with their dollars – https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/ even a lot of the rural red areas are close to 50/50
I believe Trump 2.0 tariffs are already in place.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/13/politics/china-tariffs-biden-trump/index.html
Bruce Hall: If you think Sec 301 tariffs on Chinese products is nearly the same as 10-20% tariffs on *all* imports, plus 60% on all Chinese goods, then I think you are deceiving yourself, quantitatively.
We know Brucie has trouble reading his own links so I thought I would help him out:
“The administration’s increases – which impact a relatively small amount of US imports”
Now we may need to define “small” for Brucie!
pgl has trouble with the whole context:
Trump implemented sweeping tariffs on about $300 billion of Chinese-made products when he was in office. President Joe Biden has kept those tariffs in place and, after the USTR finished a multiyear review earlier this year, decided to increase some of the rates on about $15 billion of Chinese imports.
…
Also on Friday, the Biden administration announced a new effort to limit the amount of foreign goods that can come into the US tariff-free because they are valued at $800 or less.
As I said, Trump 2.0 already in place.
Regarding Trump 3.0 tariffs, we’ll have to see where that goes. But, like no taxes on tips, Harris will probably jump on the bandwagon.
Bruce Hall pulls out some cherry picked meaningless trash and attacks MY reading skills? NIce try Brucie but you have not even begun to address the many devastating critics here. But do attack me as you are too much of a coward to address anyone else’s comments. Dude – it was YOUR own link. Try READING the whole damn thing. DUH!
“the Biden administration announced a new effort to limit the amount of foreign goods that can come into the US tariff-free because they are valued at $800 or less.”
It’s call De minimum you little dumba$$. Let’s see. A20% tariff on a shipment with a value of only $750 raises how much tariff rule. Trump has Bruce Hall arithmetic skills and concludes this is worth hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff revenues. Gee Bruce – you are so clever at math!
Bruce Hall thinks this is a rebuttal?
“President Joe Biden has kept those tariffs in place and, after the USTR finished a multiyear review earlier this year, decided to increase some of the rates on about $15 billion of Chinese imports.”
This is in response to me noting his own link said Biden raised tariffs on a small amount of imported goods! Bruce thinks $15 billion is not small. Hey Brucie – math challenge. What percentage of total imports does $15 billion represent. Take your time as we have all day and we know you have to take your shoes off to count past 10!
“…Harris will probably (made up nonsense)”.
That’s your argument? The MAGA is strong in this one.
Once again, pgl attempts to distort what is written.
Example:
It’s call De minimum you little dumba$$. Let’s see. A20% tariff on a shipment with a value of only $750 raises how much tariff rule. Trump has Bruce Hall arithmetic skills and concludes this is worth hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff revenues. Gee Bruce – you are so clever at math!
That was an incidental part of the actions, not the main effort by Biden to increase tariffs.
Example:
“President Joe Biden has kept those tariffs in place and, after the USTR finished a multiyear review earlier this year, decided to increase some of the rates on about $15 billion of Chinese imports.”
This is in response to me noting his own link said Biden raised tariffs on a small amount of imported goods! Bruce thinks $15 billion is not small. Hey Brucie – math challenge. What percentage of total imports does $15 billion represent. Take your time as we have all day and we know you have to take your shoes off to count past 10!
The obvious point was that because Trump’s tariffs were so onerous (pgl’s view) that Biden adding to the tariffs was no big deal. Well, it was still more than Trump’s. But yes, $15 billion is nothing in the scheme of overall cost of living.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/many-us-voters-economy-is-personal-they-blame-democrats-2024-10-28/
You want it both ways: Trump tariffs bad; Biden tariffs plus Trump’s okay. Show me how that works.
Bruce Hall
October 28, 2024 at 4:14 pm
Once again, pgl attempts to distort what is written.
I did not distort anything. Unless you think pointing out what was in your own link (which you failed to read again) is distortion. Come on Brucie – just accept the fact that you have a single digit IQ.
Bruce’s mind can’t wrap itself around anything more complex than wearing a red dunce cap and screaming “public schools are evil!!!”
But we need Brucie to decipher Trump’s claim that his tariffs raised “Hundreds of Billions” from China alone. Odd Census tells us that this figure from ALL sources and not just China was less than $80 billion in 2019:
Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA
Come on Brucie – what is it? Census is lying by not reporting all those tariff revenues from Chinese imports? Not that Trump would ever lie. Or maybe Trump was talking about tariff revenues over the next decade. Brucie – you are some work to do. Get busy.
No, Moses, my comment wast just too subtle for you and pgl. Read my response to pgl’s snark.
Too subtle? Is that your latest excuse for your incompetency at reading and writing? OK!
pgl, congratulations! You’ve successfully obfuscated the main point: Biden increased Trump’s tariffs. Weasel around that.
Bruce Hall
October 28, 2024 at 4:15 pm
pgl, congratulations! You’ve successfully obfuscated the main point: Biden increased Trump’s tariffs. Weasel around that.
Needs some editing as the word obfuscated should be corrected. Main point should be main lie. And yea – a few of the tariff rates were raised. Others were dropped.
Now Brucie – do try to be more accurate next time.
bruce, why can’t you admit that trump economic policy is simply absurd?
and bruce, I am going to make a “told you so” statement now. trump is going to stop taxing social security benefits, to buy your vote today. but he is also going to gut your benefit payouts in the future, because he has no interest in supporting the average person in this country. social security is not sacred to trump at all. so you will be worse off in a few years under trump. and i told you so.
I didn’t know that a POTUS could single-handedly change the whole Social Security system. Wow! i learn something everyday.
Well he came close with health care but McCain sunk him. But I guess Brucie does not know that the Republican Party has been trying to do this for the last 30 years. Yep – Brucie boy is one dumb moron.
bruce, I am simply here to tell you “I told you so”.
Hey Brucie baby – you cannot even read the TITLE of your own link?
Biden finalizes increases to some of Trump’s China tariffs
Or maybe you do not know the meaning of “some”. That’s why you preK teacher has given up on you.
“The tariff rate will go up to 100% on electric vehicles, to 50% on solar cells and to 25% on electrical vehicle batteries, critical minerals, steel, aluminum, face masks and ship-to-shore cranes beginning September 27, according to the US Trade Representative’s Office.”
I think Brucie has made some progress finally. He not only is buying an EV, his entire budget must be on green goods. No more imported products if they are not green for Brucie boy. Hey Brucie – we are so proud of you!
Bruce refuses to believe the lies of leftwing rag WSJ. Dirty liberal nest WSJ only serves Hillary:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-harris-election-inflation-0797554a?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Bruce Hall Many commenters here have criticized Biden for not undoing Trump’s tariffs. Do you agree that Trump’s tariffs should be removed? Or do you believe Trump should increase tariffs even more as he has pledged to do?
Asking Bruce Hall to take a principled stand? Don’t hold your breath.
…tick, tick tick…and silence.
Be fair. Brucie did say I have distorted what wrote. Huh – I note what he wrote as compared to what his own link said and Brucie boy calls that distortion. Go figure!
tucker carlson acts like he is on crystal meth at that rally last night.
the trump rally was full of racism, sexism, hate and scorn for americans in general. why does trump despise the average american so much? all of the important people who worked with him in his first term have called him a fascist. do you really want a return to the trump years? remember the lock downs, deadly disease, collapsed economy and hatred of the first term? you really want to live that era again? the russians and chinese continue to influence the election in trumps favor, because they walked all over him the last time. and can’t wait to do so again. buying trump’s influence is pretty cheap, as far as they are concerned.
I decided not to listen to how Trump and his vast array of racist minions soiled the great Madison Square Garden with all sort of lies and racist garbage. But Kevin Drum covered it in four blog posts. The last one is here and addressed Trump’s contribution to the dishonesty and racism:
https://jabberwocking.com/msg-report-4/
It did not present what Trump actually said but did have the cut away on CNN that documenting a few of his many lies. I guess MAGA morons like Bruce Hall will tell you that Kevin Drum is a Communist and CNN is a pack of fascists. MAGA!
pgl: “The tariff rate will go up to 100% on electric vehicles, to 50% on solar cells and to 25% on electrical vehicle batteries, critical minerals, steel, aluminum, face masks and ship-to-shore cranes beginning September 27, according to the US Trade Representative’s Office.”
Are we supposed to be concerned about climate change or concerned about American industrialist profits? It seems more like the latter.
It seems rather bizarre to have a policy of tax subsidies for EVs and simultaneously a tariff tax on EVs.
I’m not a fan of these tariffs. But didn’t Trump say he wanted 200% tariffs on Chinese EVs? Oh wait – that was the tariff rate John Deere would have to pay. Which of course raises the cost of production for farmers.
I am fascinated to see that Washington’s economy is not as dependent upon exports as some of the midwestern states. I suppose it’s because we have different industries and are not entirely dependent upon agriculture and Boeing these days. Not that anybody wants to be dependent on Boeing for the time being.
I’m shocked that Bruce Hall did not offer us this on how Trump’s tariffs cure all evils!
https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-trump-taxes-imports-inflation-consumers-prices-c2eef295a078a76ce2bb7fedb0c5e58c
WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump has identified what he sees as an all-purpose fix for what ails America: Slap huge new tariffs on foreign goods entering the United States. The former president and current Republican nominee asserts that tariffs — basically import taxes — will create more factory jobs, shrink the federal deficit, lower food prices and allow the government to subsidize childcare. He even says tariffs can promote world peace. “Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented,’’ Trump said this month in Flint, Michigan.
Lower food prices? Like the high cost of cocoa and bananas? How is that supposed to work. Oh yea – Dole will open its banana plantations in Bruce Hall’s backward. And I’m sure Brucie boy knows how to produce low cost and delicious cocoa!
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
U.S. trade in goods with China
I’m providing this useful data since Bruce Hall has no effing clue how much the US imports in general or how much it imports from China. Total US imports exceed $4 trillion per year and 2022 imports from China were $536 billion. Now Brucie boy just told us that tariffs on $15 billion of goods imported from China ala Biden was a big deal. His only link called it “small”. But Brucie is lousy at reading and even worse at basic arithmetic.
It is interesting that we imported $538 billion from China in 2018 but that was before the stupid Trump tariffs. Trump must have thought he would collected HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of dollars in tariff revenues on Chinese goods with his 25% tariff (Trump said that actually happened) but Census shows imports from China fell to $423 billion by 2020. Higher duties do have a substitution effect and let’s remember the damage to our economy in 2020 from Trump’s mishandling of COVID19.
Hundreds of thousands of subscribers are fleeing the Washington Post after owner Jeff Bezos torpedoes a planned editorial board endorsement of Kamala Harris.
It really says something when even the second richest billionaire in the world is afraid of Donald Trump. Bezos realizes that he will be fine under a Harris administration no matter what but if he gets on the wrong side of Trump and he wins, he’s toast.
It’s the billionaire’s version of Pascal’s wager. It costs you nothing to bet that Trump wins but you definitely could be hurt if you bet against him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager
Since John Deere entered this conversation, let me add that Caterpillar (competitor of Deere) has 70% of its production and sales overseas so they could care less about Trump’s tariff threat. Deere like Caterpillar has over $60 billion in worldwide sales. Here is what its 10K says:
In the U.S. and Canada, the equipment operations own and operate 23 factory locations and lease and operate another 3 locations. Outside of the U.S. and Canada, the equipment operations own or lease and operate 45 factory locations in Argentina, Austria, Brazil, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Israel, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Spain. In addition, the equipment operations own or lease 12 facilities comprised of three locations supporting centralized parts distribution and nine regional parts depots and distribution centers throughout the U.S. and Canada. Outside the U.S. and Canada, the equipment operations also own or lease and occupy 11 total facilities with centralized parts distribution centers in Brazil, Germany, and India and regional parts depots and distribution centers in Argentina, Australia, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. We also own or lease eight facilities for the manufacture and distribution of other brands of replacement parts. Our manufacturing facility in Russia was shut down in 2022. Our Eurasian parts distribution center in Russia was also closed, and the leased premises were returned to the landlord in the second quarter of fiscal year 2023. Premises owned by Wirtgen in Russia operating in the roadbuilding business were sold in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023.
Yea Deere is a lot like Caterpillar so Trump’s only leverage is to go to Putin kissing up to have Jared run the Russian operations!